基于Gamma-χ~2分布的混油拖尾现象预测
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摘要
混油拖尾现象与批次跟踪的准确性、调度计划的可靠性、切割方案的经济性密切相关,准确描述混油拖尾现象对控制混油量、预测油品质量指标十分重要。分析了混油拖尾曲线的变化规律,建立了混油界面非对称分布的模拟模型。基于混油界面检测数据得到混油等效密度分布特点及其梯度变化规律,分别利用Gamma、Gamma-χ~2分布函数逼近混油等效密度梯度变化曲线。通过编程模拟分布函数,近而反演出分布函数中的关键参数后,得到混油等效密度的分布曲线。基于此,分析不同边界条件和运行工况下管道系统各参数与等效密度分布函数参数的关系,得到拟合公式,进一步利用部分数据预测完整混油等效密度分布曲线,以实现等效密度曲线的实时在线预测,为顺序输送混油量预测和油品切割提供有效指导。
The phenomenon of mixed oil tailing is closely related to the accuracy of batch tracking, the reliability of scheduling plan, and the economy of oil-cutting scheme. Therefore, the accurate description on mixed oil tailing is quite significant to control the mixed oil volume and predict the oil quality. In this paper, the variation rule of mixed oil tailing curve was analyzed, and the simulation model for investigating the asymmetry distribution of the mixing interface was established. Then, the concentration distribution characteristic and its gradient change law were obtained on the basis of the data measured at the mixing interface, and the concentration gradient change curves were approximated by Gamma and Gamma-χ~2 distribution functions, respectively. The distribution functions were simulated by programming and their key parameters were inverted, the concentration distribution curve of mixed oil was established. Based on this, the relationships between the parameters of pipeline systems and the parameters of distribution functions were analyzed under different boundary conditions and operating modes, and the fitting formula was obtained. Additionally, partial data was applied to predict the whole concentration distribution curve, so as to realize the real-time online prediction on the concentration curve. The research results can provide effective guidance for the prediction of mixed oil volume and the operation of mixed oil cutting.
The phenomenon of mixed oil tailing is closely related to the accuracy of batch tracking, the reliability of scheduling plan, and the economy of oil-cutting scheme. Therefore, the accurate description on mixed oil tailing is quite significant to control the mixed oil volume and predict the oil quality. In this paper, the variation rule of mixed oil tailing curve was analyzed, and the simulation model for investigating the asymmetry distribution of the mixing interface was established. Then, the concentration distribution characteristic and its gradient change law were obtained on the basis of the data measured at the mixing interface, and the concentration gradient change curves were approximated by Gamma and Gamma-χ~2 distribution functions, respectively. The distribution functions were simulated by programming and their key parameters were inverted, the concentration distribution curve of mixed oil was established. Based on this, the relationships between the parameters of pipeline systems and the parameters of distribution functions were analyzed under different boundary conditions and operating modes, and the fitting formula was obtained. Additionally, partial data was applied to predict the whole concentration distribution curve, so as to realize the real-time online prediction on the concentration curve. The research results can provide effective guidance for the prediction of mixed oil volume and the operation of mixed oil cutting.
引文
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[13]赵会军,张青松,张国忠,等.基于PHOENICS的顺序输送大落差管道混油研究[J].石油天然气学报,2006,28(4):139-142.ZHAO H J,ZHANG Q S,ZHANG G Z,et al.On the intermixing of big elevation difference batch pipeline transportation based on PHOENICS[J].Journal of Oil and Gas Technology,2006,28(4):139-142.
[14]方利民,梁永图,何国玺.顺序输送环道中弯管结构对混油量的影响分析[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2016,36(3):24-29.FANG L M,LIANG Y T,HE G X.Analysis on the influence of different pipe bending structures on mixture volume in the sequence transportation experimental loop[J].Journal of Liaoning Shihua University,2016,36(3):24-29.
[15]朱峰,梁静华,李会朵,等.成品油混油切割与掺混试验[J].油气储运,2011,30(5):364-368.ZHU F,LIANG J H,LI H D,et al.Testing on contamination cut and blending for products[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2011,30(5):364-368.
[16]刘杰.成品油管道输送的混油切割技术与处理研究[D].西安:西安石油大学,2014:24-35.LIU J.Multi-oil cutting and technology disposal of batch transportation of multi-product pipeline[D].Xi'an:Xi'an Shiyou University,2014:24-35.
[17]徐燕萍,左志恒,徐光春.成品油长输管道的混油下载与切割[J].油气储运,2010,29(7):505-508.XU Y P,ZUO Z H,XU G C.Contamination unloading and cutting of long-distance oil product pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2010,29(7):505-508.
[18]付英,张存兰,贾贞.混油浓度曲线回归及混油切割点的确定[J].德州学院学报,2003,19(6):53-56.FU Y,ZHANG C L,JIA Z.The drawing of the curve of the mixing concentration and determination of the cutting point[J].Journal of Dezhou University,2003,19(6):53-56.
[19]翁蕾,王爱萍.龙贝格积分法在顺序输送管道混油浓度计算中的应用[J].天然气与石油,2010,28(6):6-9.WENG L,WANG A P.Application of Romberg integration method in calculating the contaminated concentration in batch transportation pipeline[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2010,28(6):6-9.
[20]蒋连生,王帅,张志军,等.成品油管道混油拖尾对切割浓度的影响[J].油气储运,2014,33(8):848-851.JIANG L S,WANG S,ZHANG Z J,et al.Effects of mixed oil tailing of products pipeline on cutting concentration[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(8):848-851.
[21]雷林平.基于Savitzky-Golay算法的曲线平滑去噪[J].电脑与信息技术,2014,22(5):30-31.LEI L P.Curve smooth denoising based on Savitzky-Golay algorithm[J].Computer and Information Technology,2014,22(5):30-31.
[2]李军,王岳,李岩.西部成品油管道顺序输送的混油控制[J].油气储运,2010,29(2):110-112.LI J,WANG Y,LI Y.Contamination control in batch transportation of West Oil Product Pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2010,29(2):110-112.
[3]郑劲,王大鹏,赵佳丽,等.成品油管道混油进罐切入量的计算分析[J].油气储运,2018,37(8):897-901.ZHENG J,WANG D,ZHAO J,et al.Computation and analysis of cutting volume of the contaminated oil in products pipeline into tanks[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(8):897-901.
[4]杨芳芳,谭永忠,郑小彦.镇杭管道顺序输送中混油的创新处理[J].油气储运,2018,37(11):1243-1247.YANG F,TAN Y,ZHENG X.Innovative treatment of contaminated aviation kerosene during batch transportation of Zhenhai-Hangzhou Products Pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2018,37(11):1243-1247.
[5]马晶,廖绮,周星远,等.甬绍金衢成品油管道调度计划自动编制软件研制与应用[J].石油化工高等学校学报,2016,29(6):86-91.MA J,LIAO Q,ZHOU X Y,et al.The development and application of automatic scheduling software for Yongshaojinqu products pipeline[J].Journal of Petrochemical Universities,2016,29(6):86-91.
[6]郭袆.提高成品油管道混油界面跟踪精度的新方法[J].油气储运,2010,29(12):908-909.GUO Y.A novel method to improve the tracing precision of contamination interface for products pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2010,29(12):908-909.
[7]李欣泽.成品油管道的混油长度计算方法[J].油气储运,2015,34(5):497-499.LI X Z.Calculation method for length of oil mixtures in product pipelines[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2015,34(5):497-499.
[8]王升,王岳,刘丽艳,等.变径管连接方式对混油长度的影响[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2014,34(1):56-59.WANG S,WANG Y,LIU L Y,et al.The impact of variable diameter pipe connection mode on mixed oil length[J].Journal of Liaoning Shihua University,2014,34(1):56-59.
[9]孙卫鹏,高锦伟,沙海涛.克乌管线航煤输送混油长度计算[J].辽宁化工,2012,41(5):91-92.SUN W P,GAO J W,SHA H T.Calculation of contaminated oil volume during batch transportation of aviation fuel in KaramayUrumqi products pipeline[J].Liaoning Chemical Industry,2012,41(5):91-92.
[10]徐向阳,武士坤.顺序输送混油回掺的质量控制[J].石油库与加油站,2011,20(5):3-5.XU X Y,WU S K.The quality control in back mixing treatment of contaminated oil from batch transportation pipeline[J].Oil Depot and Gas Station,2011,20(5):3-5.
[11]程玲.让管输混油回掺比例最大化[J].中国石化,2010(3):34.CHEN L.Maximize the blending proportion of mixed oil in pipelines[J].Sinopec Monthly,2010(3):34.
[12]郑瑜,赵会军,赵书华.顺序输送汽油与柴油混油回掺试验[J].油气储运,2008,27(5):32-34,65.ZHENG Y,ZHAO H J,ZHAO S H.A study on diesel and gasoline mixture in batch transportation process[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2008,27(5):32-34,65.
[13]赵会军,张青松,张国忠,等.基于PHOENICS的顺序输送大落差管道混油研究[J].石油天然气学报,2006,28(4):139-142.ZHAO H J,ZHANG Q S,ZHANG G Z,et al.On the intermixing of big elevation difference batch pipeline transportation based on PHOENICS[J].Journal of Oil and Gas Technology,2006,28(4):139-142.
[14]方利民,梁永图,何国玺.顺序输送环道中弯管结构对混油量的影响分析[J].辽宁石油化工大学学报,2016,36(3):24-29.FANG L M,LIANG Y T,HE G X.Analysis on the influence of different pipe bending structures on mixture volume in the sequence transportation experimental loop[J].Journal of Liaoning Shihua University,2016,36(3):24-29.
[15]朱峰,梁静华,李会朵,等.成品油混油切割与掺混试验[J].油气储运,2011,30(5):364-368.ZHU F,LIANG J H,LI H D,et al.Testing on contamination cut and blending for products[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2011,30(5):364-368.
[16]刘杰.成品油管道输送的混油切割技术与处理研究[D].西安:西安石油大学,2014:24-35.LIU J.Multi-oil cutting and technology disposal of batch transportation of multi-product pipeline[D].Xi'an:Xi'an Shiyou University,2014:24-35.
[17]徐燕萍,左志恒,徐光春.成品油长输管道的混油下载与切割[J].油气储运,2010,29(7):505-508.XU Y P,ZUO Z H,XU G C.Contamination unloading and cutting of long-distance oil product pipeline[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2010,29(7):505-508.
[18]付英,张存兰,贾贞.混油浓度曲线回归及混油切割点的确定[J].德州学院学报,2003,19(6):53-56.FU Y,ZHANG C L,JIA Z.The drawing of the curve of the mixing concentration and determination of the cutting point[J].Journal of Dezhou University,2003,19(6):53-56.
[19]翁蕾,王爱萍.龙贝格积分法在顺序输送管道混油浓度计算中的应用[J].天然气与石油,2010,28(6):6-9.WENG L,WANG A P.Application of Romberg integration method in calculating the contaminated concentration in batch transportation pipeline[J].Natural Gas and Oil,2010,28(6):6-9.
[20]蒋连生,王帅,张志军,等.成品油管道混油拖尾对切割浓度的影响[J].油气储运,2014,33(8):848-851.JIANG L S,WANG S,ZHANG Z J,et al.Effects of mixed oil tailing of products pipeline on cutting concentration[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2014,33(8):848-851.
[21]雷林平.基于Savitzky-Golay算法的曲线平滑去噪[J].电脑与信息技术,2014,22(5):30-31.LEI L P.Curve smooth denoising based on Savitzky-Golay algorithm[J].Computer and Information Technology,2014,22(5):30-31.