保税物流区域发展对地区经济增长影响的实证分析——以浙江省保税物流区域为例
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摘要
我国保税物流区域正处于整合优化升级的关键时期,在深化改革扩大开放中起示范引领作用,为实现经济协调发展和可持续增长提供了战略机遇。文章利用浙江省1995-2015年的数据,运用VAR模型,通过协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,实证研究保税物流区域的保税物流、保税加工、进出口贸易对浙江省经济增长的动态影响。研究发现:保税物流区域变量与浙江省经济增长之间存在长期协整关系;其对浙江省经济增长影响作用的大小依次为保税加工货值、进出口总额、海关特殊监管区域物流货值;从长期来说,保税加工货值、进出口总额均具有正向促进作用,海关特殊监管区域物流货物显示为较小负向作用。根据研究结论,文章提出了政策建议。
China's bonded logistics areas are now in the critical period of integrated and optimized upgrading,which plays a leading role in the deepening of the reform and opening up and provides a strategic opportunity for the economic coordinated development and sustainable growth. With the data of Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2015,with the VAR model,through co-integration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this paper studies empirically the dynamic effect of bonded logistics,bonded processing,import and export trade on the economic growth in Zhejiang Province. It is found that there is a long-term co-integrating relationship between the regional variables of bonded logistics and the economic growth of Zhejiang Province. The impact on the strength of economic growth in Zhejiang Province is,based on the significance,as follows: the value of bonded processing,total export-import volume,the value of logistics in the special customs supervision area. In the long run,the value of bonded processing and the total export-import volume have a positive promoting role. The value of logistics in the special customs supervision area shows a relatively small negative effect. Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward policy recommendations.
China's bonded logistics areas are now in the critical period of integrated and optimized upgrading,which plays a leading role in the deepening of the reform and opening up and provides a strategic opportunity for the economic coordinated development and sustainable growth. With the data of Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2015,with the VAR model,through co-integration test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this paper studies empirically the dynamic effect of bonded logistics,bonded processing,import and export trade on the economic growth in Zhejiang Province. It is found that there is a long-term co-integrating relationship between the regional variables of bonded logistics and the economic growth of Zhejiang Province. The impact on the strength of economic growth in Zhejiang Province is,based on the significance,as follows: the value of bonded processing,total export-import volume,the value of logistics in the special customs supervision area. In the long run,the value of bonded processing and the total export-import volume have a positive promoting role. The value of logistics in the special customs supervision area shows a relatively small negative effect. Based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward policy recommendations.
引文
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[7]胡燕京,郭瑞佳.保税港区对区域经济影响效应的实证研究——以青岛前湾保税港区为例[J].东方论坛,2014(1):50-53.
[8]俞雅乖.现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于浙江省1986-2009年的数据[J].国际贸易问题,2012(1):99-107.
[9]田雅娟,甄力.物流视角下保税区拉动腹地经济增长的实证分析[J].统计与管理,2013(2):29-30.
[10]陈章喜.中国入世后保税区的功能调整与体制转换[J].国际贸易问题,2002(4):13-15.
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[12]周广肃.Stata统计分析与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2015:249.
[2]汤竹庭,王政武,巫文强.广西保税物流体系建设存在问题及对策研究[J].改革与战略,2011(4):1-6.
[3]于晓军,赵绍全.保税物流发展与加工贸易转型升级的关系研究[J].现代商业,2008(33):108-108.
[4]王任祥,邵万清.保税港区建设与发展探索——宁波梅山保税港区建设与发展专题研究[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2010.
[5]刘秉镰,章彰.港口与保税区一体化的经济效益分析[J].南开经济研究,1997(3):56-62.
[6]刘辉群,刘恩专.中国保税港区发展及其绩效评价[J].商业研究,2008(11):203-206.
[7]胡燕京,郭瑞佳.保税港区对区域经济影响效应的实证研究——以青岛前湾保税港区为例[J].东方论坛,2014(1):50-53.
[8]俞雅乖.现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于浙江省1986-2009年的数据[J].国际贸易问题,2012(1):99-107.
[9]田雅娟,甄力.物流视角下保税区拉动腹地经济增长的实证分析[J].统计与管理,2013(2):29-30.
[10]陈章喜.中国入世后保税区的功能调整与体制转换[J].国际贸易问题,2002(4):13-15.
[11]李子奈,叶阿忠.高级应用计量经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2012:107-110.
[12]周广肃.Stata统计分析与应用[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2015:249.