降雨入渗条件下镇巴县牛背梁滑坡风险评价
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摘要
为了研究降雨强度对浅表层坡体失稳的影响程度,在野外详细地质勘察的基础之上,利用Geostudio软件对坡体在不同降雨工况下进行渗流场和稳定性模拟,研究相应工况下的稳定性系数和失稳概率,再通过定量化方法对极易失稳工况下的坡体进行风险评估,研究结果表明:只有完全饱和状态条件下的坡体才极易失稳,失稳概率高达48.93%,滑坡影响区内承灾体总价值为361.9万元,财产年损失83.24万元,单人年死亡概率8.7×10-2,即处于风险极高区。
In order to study the influence degree of rainfall intensity on the instability of superficial slope,based on the detailed geological survey in the ?eld,the Geostudio software is used to simulate the seepage field and stability of the slope under different rainfall conditions,and study the stability coefficient and instability probability under the corresponding working conditions. then,the risk assessment of the slope under extremely unstable conditions through the quantitative method is carried out. The results show that the slope is only vulnerable to instability under fully saturated conditions.The probability of instability is as high as 48.93%. The total value of the disaster-bearing body in the landslide-affected area is 3.619 million yuan,the annual loss of property is 0.8324 million yuan,and the probability of single-person annual death is 8.7*10-2,which is in the extremely high risk area.
In order to study the influence degree of rainfall intensity on the instability of superficial slope,based on the detailed geological survey in the ?eld,the Geostudio software is used to simulate the seepage field and stability of the slope under different rainfall conditions,and study the stability coefficient and instability probability under the corresponding working conditions. then,the risk assessment of the slope under extremely unstable conditions through the quantitative method is carried out. The results show that the slope is only vulnerable to instability under fully saturated conditions.The probability of instability is as high as 48.93%. The total value of the disaster-bearing body in the landslide-affected area is 3.619 million yuan,the annual loss of property is 0.8324 million yuan,and the probability of single-person annual death is 8.7*10-2,which is in the extremely high risk area.
引文
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[11]UZIELLI M,NADIM F,LACASSE S,et al.A Conceptual Framework for Quantitative Estimation of Physical Vulner-ability to Landslides[J].Engineering Geology, 2008, 102(3/4):251-256.
[2]石菊松,石玲,吴树仁,等.滑坡风险评估实践中的难点与对策[J].地质通报,2009, 28(8):1020-1030.
[3]吴树仁,石菊松,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评估技术指南初论[J].地质通报,2009, 28(8):995-1005.
[4]杜娟.单体滑坡灾害风险评价研究[D].武汉:中国地质大学,2012.
[5]向玲,王世梅,王力.动水压力型滑坡对库水位升降作用的响应——以三峡库区树坪滑坡为例[J].工程地质学报,2014, 22(5):876-882.
[6]向学坤,文海家,谢朋,等.强降雨条件下诱发单体滑坡的多场特征耦合研究[A].中国地质学会工程地质专业委员会.2015年全国工程地质学术年会论文集[C].中国地质学会工程地质专业委员会:《工程地质学报》编辑部,2015:9.
[7]李佳春.降雨入渗对麻湾村滑坡稳定性影响研究[D].中国地质大学(北京),2018.
[8]顾春新.城市短历时暴雨强度公式及参数确定方法研究[D].河海大学,2007.
[9]刘光文.皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布参数估计[J].水文,1990(4):1-15.
[10]张洁,吕特,薛建锋,等.适用于斜坡降雨人渗分析的修正Green-Ampt模型[J].岩土力学,2016,37(9):2451-2457.
[11]UZIELLI M,NADIM F,LACASSE S,et al.A Conceptual Framework for Quantitative Estimation of Physical Vulner-ability to Landslides[J].Engineering Geology, 2008, 102(3/4):251-256.