基于交通冲突的城市交叉口风险影响因素分析
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摘要
分析城市交叉口交通风险影响因素,保障城市交叉口交通安全,为城市交叉口风险管控提供理论依据。利用交通冲突技术界定城市交叉口风险因素耦合,基于交通冲突数据,采用N-K模型和改进的耦合度模型构建城市交叉口风险因素耦合模型,分析城市交叉口风险构成要素间的耦合作用;提出冲突严重度模型,对城市交叉口多因素风险耦合效应进行评估。研究结果表明:多因素风险耦合一旦发生,其危险性更大;车辆因素中车辆类型与左转车比例表现为强耦合;车辆与道路因素中,车辆类型与转弯车道半径和掉头车道半径表现为强耦合,应加强大型车在交叉口转弯的安全风险防控。
In order to analyze the influencing factors of traffic risk at urban intersections,ensuring the traffic safety at urban intersections,a theoretical basis for risk management and control at urban intersections is provided. Using traffic conflict to define the coupling of risk factors at urban intersections and the traffic conflicts data,the coupling model of risk factors at urban intersections is constructed by dint of N-K model and the improved coupling degree model. The coupling effect among risk components at urban intersection is analyzed,and severity of conflict model is proposed to evaluate the effect of multi-factor risk coupling at urban intersections.The results show that multi-factor risk coupling is more dangerous if it occurs; the vehicle type and the left-turn ratio are strongly coupled in the vehicle factor. Among the vehicle and road factors,the vehicle type is strongly coupled with the turning lane radius and the turning around lane radius. The security risk prevention and control of large vehicles turning at intersections should be strengthened.
In order to analyze the influencing factors of traffic risk at urban intersections,ensuring the traffic safety at urban intersections,a theoretical basis for risk management and control at urban intersections is provided. Using traffic conflict to define the coupling of risk factors at urban intersections and the traffic conflicts data,the coupling model of risk factors at urban intersections is constructed by dint of N-K model and the improved coupling degree model. The coupling effect among risk components at urban intersection is analyzed,and severity of conflict model is proposed to evaluate the effect of multi-factor risk coupling at urban intersections.The results show that multi-factor risk coupling is more dangerous if it occurs; the vehicle type and the left-turn ratio are strongly coupled in the vehicle factor. Among the vehicle and road factors,the vehicle type is strongly coupled with the turning lane radius and the turning around lane radius. The security risk prevention and control of large vehicles turning at intersections should be strengthened.
引文
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[19]陈凯贤,曾俊伟,钱勇生,等.高速公路交通事故影响区域交通流限速管控特征研究[J].公路工程,2018,43(2):91-95.CHEN K X,ZENG J W,QIAN Y S,et al. Study on the characteristics of regional traffic flow rate control in expressway traffic accidents[J]. Highway Engineering,2018,43(2):91-95.
[2] ALHAJYASEEN W. The development of conflict index for the safety assessment of intersections considering crash probability and severity[J]. Procedia Computer Science,2014,32:364-371.
[3] AUTEY J,SAYED T,Zaki M H. Safety evaluation of right-turn smart channels using automated traffic conflict analysis[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention,2012,45:120-130.
[4] YU R J,XIONG Y G,ABDELATY M. A correlated random parameter approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on crash risk for a mountainous freeway[J]. Transportation Research Part C,2015,50:68-77.
[5]王铨登.基于综合的交通冲突技术的城市道路交叉口安全评价方法研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2012.WANG Q D. Study on methods of safe evaluation based on comprehensive traffic conflict technology in the urban intersection[D].Chengdu:Southwest Jiaotong University,2012.
[6]李明,王永岗,张巍,等.山区高速公路交通死亡事故显著影响因素鉴别[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(5):126-130.LI M,WANG Y G,ZHANG W,et al. Identifying significant factors influencing occurrence of fatal crash on mountainous freeway[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(5):126-130.
[7]毕和政,陆键,朱胜雪.基于组合赋权和灰色聚类的一级公路平交口安全评价[J].武汉理工大学学报,2015,37(11):54-60.BI H Z,LU J,ZHU S X,et al. A safety evaluation method for the first-grade highway intersecitons using combined weighting and gray clustering[J]. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2015,37(11):54-60.
[8]单媛,李朔,雷定猷.农村道路条件安全分析与评价研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2017,14(4):862-871.SHAN Y,LI S,LEI D Y. Safety analysis and evaluation of rural road conditions[J]. Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2017,14(4):862-871.
[9]杨晓芳,高艺芳,付强,等.基于三角系统的城市道路交叉口综合安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(10):88-93.YANG X F,GAO Y F,FU Q,et al. Urban road intersection comprehensive traffic safety evaluation based on triangular system[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(10):88-93.
[10]胡立伟,薛刚,李林育,等.高原地质及气象环境下公路交通风险致因耦合分析[J].中国公路学报,2018,31(1):110-119.HU L W,XUE G,LI L Y,et al. Analysis of coupling of highway traffic risks in geological and meteorological environment of plateau regions[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport,2018,31(1):110-119.
[11]郭延永,刘攀,吴瑶,等.基于交通冲突模型的信号交叉口渠化岛设置方法[J].交通运输工程学报,2017,17(4):140-148.GUO Y Y,LIU P,WU Y,et al. Design approach of channelized island based on traffic conflict medels at signalized intersection[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,2017,17(4):140-148.
[12]郭延永,刘攀,徐铖铖,等.基于交通冲突模型的信号交叉口右转设施安全分析[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(11):139-146.GUO Y Y,LIU P,XU C C,et al. Safety analysis of right-turn facility at signalized intersection using traffic conflict model[J].China Journal of Highway and Transport,2016,29(11):139-146.
[13] DISSANAYKE S,ROY U. Crash severity analysis of single vehicle run-off-road crashes[J]. Journal of Transportation Technologies,2014,4(1):1-10.
[14]初旭新,宗刚,彭朝霞,等.基于ISM的道路交通安全影响因素研究[J].安全与环境学报,2017,17(5):1668-1672.CHU X X,ZONG G,PENG Z X,et al. Analysis of the key influential factors on the road traffic safety based on the interpretive structural model[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment,2017,17(5):1668-1672.
[15]张惠玲,尹宝计.限速值对信号交叉口交通安全的影响分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(2):112-116.ZHANG H L,YIN B J. Analyzing effects of speed limit on traffic safety at signalized intersection[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(2):112-116.
[16]李金花,刘莉,张宁,等.基于仿真的城市道路交叉口交通安全评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):41-46.LI J H,LIU L,ZHANG N,et al. Simulation-based evaluation of urban road intersection traffic safety[J]. China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(12):41-46.
[17]张小秀,杨晓光,赵靖.基于冲突概率的无信号控制T形交叉口安全评价[J].交通信息与安全,2015,33(4):54-60.ZHANG X X,YANG X G,ZHAO J. A safety evaluation model for unsignalized t-intersections based on conflict probability[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2015,33(4):54-60.
[18]王晨,夏井新,陆振波,等.基于微观仿真与极值理论的城市交叉口安全评价方法[J].中国公路学报,2018,31(4):288-295.WANG C,XIA J X,LU Z B,et al. Safety evaluation method based on traffic simulation and extreme value theory[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport,2018,31(4):288-295.
[19]陈凯贤,曾俊伟,钱勇生,等.高速公路交通事故影响区域交通流限速管控特征研究[J].公路工程,2018,43(2):91-95.CHEN K X,ZENG J W,QIAN Y S,et al. Study on the characteristics of regional traffic flow rate control in expressway traffic accidents[J]. Highway Engineering,2018,43(2):91-95.