土地利用和气候变化对王家桥小流域径流的影响
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摘要
以三峡库区内典型小流域王家桥为例,利用SWAT模型模拟土地利用和气候变化及两者共同作用对径流的影响。结果表明:扩大耕地、退耕还林、发展经济林的土地利用情景下,年均径流量较基准年变化率分别为15.13%、-13.99%、23.22%,退耕还林能有效调节和减少流域径流量;浓度路径为RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5的气候变化情景下,径流量变化率分别为7.13%、7.78%、8.91%,径流量随未来温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶排放情况增大而增加;两者综合情景下年均径流量均增加,2030年左右增幅较显著;对影响径流的因素进行方差分析,发现土地利用变化对径流的影响比气候变化的影响更显著。在未来气候变化背景下,可通过合理配置流域的土地利用类型,实现对流域水量平衡的调节。
The typical Wangjiaqiao watershed within the Three Gorges Reservoir area was selected as case study to investigate the variation of runoff under the changes of land use, climate and the combination of them by using the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT) for simulation. The results show that the rates of annual average runoff change by 15.13%,-13.99% and 23.22% under the scenarios of arable land expansion, returning farmland to forest and economic forest development respectively. Furthermore,returning farmland to forest can regulate and reduce runoff. Under the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the change rates of runoff are 7.13%, 7.78% and 8.91% respectively,and the runoff increase with the future emission of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The annual average runoff increase greatly under the scenario of the combination of them,especially around 2030. In addition,the variance analysis has found that the influence of land use are more significant than that of climate change on runoff. It is advisable that land use in the watershed can be allocated reasonably to control water balance in the future.
The typical Wangjiaqiao watershed within the Three Gorges Reservoir area was selected as case study to investigate the variation of runoff under the changes of land use, climate and the combination of them by using the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT) for simulation. The results show that the rates of annual average runoff change by 15.13%,-13.99% and 23.22% under the scenarios of arable land expansion, returning farmland to forest and economic forest development respectively. Furthermore,returning farmland to forest can regulate and reduce runoff. Under the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the change rates of runoff are 7.13%, 7.78% and 8.91% respectively,and the runoff increase with the future emission of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The annual average runoff increase greatly under the scenario of the combination of them,especially around 2030. In addition,the variance analysis has found that the influence of land use are more significant than that of climate change on runoff. It is advisable that land use in the watershed can be allocated reasonably to control water balance in the future.
引文
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[17]王洪杰,李宪文,史学正,等.四川紫色土区小流域土壤养分流失初步研究[J].土壤通报,2002,33(6):441-444.(WANG Hongjie,LI Xianwen,SHI Xuezheng,et al.Preliminary study on soil nutrient loss of small watershed in purple soil region of Sichuan[J].Chinese Journal of Soil Science,2002,33(6):441-444.(in Chinese))
[18]王亮,高瑞忠,刘玉才,等.气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域内蒙段河川径流的影响分析[J].水文,2014,34(3):70-79.(WANG Liang,GAORuizhong,LIU Yucai,et al.Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in Neimeng reach of Luanhe River[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(3):70-79.(in Chinese))
[2]Chen J,Gao C,Zeng X F,et al.Assessing changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin:approach by using multipleGCMs and hydrological models[J].Quaternary International,2017,428(1):1-11.
[3]徐宗学,刘浏.气候变化影响下的流域水循环:以长江和黄河典型流域为例[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(3):123-133.(XU Zongxue,LIU Liu.Impact of climate change on hydrological cycle:case studies in the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2016,6(3):123-133.(in Chinese))
[4]黄金龙,苏布达,朱娴韵,等.CMIP5多模式集合对南亚印度河流域气候变化的模拟与预估[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(2):297-307.(HUANG Jinlong,SU Buda,ZHU Xianyun,et al.Simulating and estimating the climate change in the Indus River basin,South Asia,based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(2):297-307.(in Chinese))
[5]Zuo D,Xu Z,Yao W,et al.Assessing the effects of changes in land use and climate on runoff and sediment yields from a watershed in the Loess Plateau of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,544(15):238-250.
[6]Zhang J X,Liu Z J,Sun X X.Changing landscape in the Three Gorges reservoir area of Yangtze River from 1977 to 2005:land use/land cover,vegetation cover changes estimated using multisource satellite data[J].International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,2009,11(6):403-412.
[7]王鹏,吴炳方,张磊,等.三峡水库建设期秭归县土地利用时空变化特征分析[J].农业工程学报,2010,26(6):302-309.(WANG Peng,WUBingfang,ZHANG Lei,et al.Spatial-temporal changes of land use and its characteristics in Zigui County under the period of TG dam project[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2010,26(6):302-309.(in Chinese))
[8]孙瑞,张雪芹.基于SWAT模型的流域径流模拟研究进展[J].水文,2010,30(3):28-32.(SUN Rui,ZHANG Xueqin.Progressin application of watershed runoff simulation based on SWAT[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(3):28-32.(in Chinese))
[9]刘伟,安伟,杨敏,等.基于SWAT模型的三峡库区大宁河流域产流产沙模拟及土壤侵蚀研究[J].水土保持学报,2016,30(4):49-56.(LIUWei,AN Wei,YANG Min,et al.Runoff and sediment yield modeling and soil erosion analysis in Daning River watershed in Three Gorges reservoir region based on SWAT Model[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,30(4):49-56.(in Chinese))
[10]陈兵.基于SWAT模型的沿渡河流域气候及土地利用变化的水文响应研究[D].武汉:华中师范大学,2014.(CHEN Bing.Hydrological Response to Climate Change and LUCC Based on SWAT Model in Yanduhe Basin[D].Wuhan:Central China Normal University,2014.(in Chinese))
[11]Yang J,Reichert P,Abbaspour K C,et al.Comparing uncertainty analysis techniques for a SWAT application to the Chaohe basin in China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2008,358(1-2):1-23.
[12]陈鲜艳,高迎新,李泽春,等.三峡气候[M].北京:气象出版社,2015:99-110.(CHEN Xianyan,GAO Yingxin,LI Zechun,et al.Climate of Three Gorges[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2015:99-110.(in Chinese))
[13]程冬兵.三峡库区等高绿篱坡地农业系统紫色土水分特性研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2008.(CHENG Dongbing.Study on the Purple Soil Water Properties under Contour Hedgerow-intercroping System in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2008.(in Chinese))
[14]Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Liew M W V,et al.Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J].Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900.
[15]徐勤学.紫色土区主要农业活动对坡面土壤侵蚀的影响[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2011.(XU Qinxue.Effects of Agricultural Activities on Hill Slop Soil Erosion of Purple Soil[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2011.(in Chinese))
[16]吴东.三峡库区兰陵溪小流域土地利用变化及其养分流失控制[D].北京:中国林业科学研究院,2016.(WU Dong.Land Use Changes and Its Control Effect of Nutrient Loss in Lanlingxi Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Forsestry,2016.(in Chinese))
[17]王洪杰,李宪文,史学正,等.四川紫色土区小流域土壤养分流失初步研究[J].土壤通报,2002,33(6):441-444.(WANG Hongjie,LI Xianwen,SHI Xuezheng,et al.Preliminary study on soil nutrient loss of small watershed in purple soil region of Sichuan[J].Chinese Journal of Soil Science,2002,33(6):441-444.(in Chinese))
[18]王亮,高瑞忠,刘玉才,等.气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域内蒙段河川径流的影响分析[J].水文,2014,34(3):70-79.(WANG Liang,GAORuizhong,LIU Yucai,et al.Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in Neimeng reach of Luanhe River[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(3):70-79.(in Chinese))