贸易便利化与制造业企业出口——基于“一带一路”沿线国家企业调查数据的实证研究
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摘要
文章利用2011～2016年世界银行企业调查数据,以49个"一带一路"沿线国家的23075家企业为样本,从海关效率、政策透明度和基础设施三个维度9项指标实证研究贸易便利化对"一带一路"国家制造业企业出口的影响。实证检验结果表明,出口清关天数增加、法庭障碍和交通障碍的增大都会显著降低"一带一路"企业的出口比重,当出口清关天数增加一天,企业出口比重会减少0. 221%。企业从国外进口原材料投入品所产生的进口清关天数也会降低企业的出口比重。贸易便利化对不同出口方式和不同规模的企业出口比重的影响存在差异,进口清关天数显著降低企业直接出口的比重而显著增加企业间接出口的比重,交通障碍主要显著影响企业直接出口。此外,腐败会显著降低小企业的出口比重而增加大企业的出口比重,政治不稳定主要影响大型企业的出口。文章认为,"一带一路"沿线国家需提高海关效率降低进出口清关时间,营造政策公开、法律公正的透明制度环境和改善交通基础设施条件等对策来提升"一带一路"国家贸易便利化水平,增加企业出口。
Based on the World Bank's enterprise survey data from 2011 to 2016 and taking23,075 enterprises in 49 countries along the Belt and Road as samples, this paper empirically studies the effects of trade facilitation on the export of manufacturing enterprises in the Belt and Road countries with 9 indicators from three dimensions of customs efficiency, policy transparency and infrastructure. The empirical results show that the increase in export customs clearance days, court barriers and transportation obstacles will significantly reduce the export proportion of the enterprises in the Belt and Road countries. When the export customs clearance days increase by one day, the proportion of the enterprises' exports will decrease by 0. 221%. The days of customs clearance for imports of raw material inputs from abroad will also reduce the export proportion of enterprises. Trade facilitation has different effects on the export proportion of the enterprises with different export modes and sizes. Import customs clearance days will significantly reduce the proportion of the enterprises' direct exports and increase the proportion of the enterprises' indirect exports. Transportation obstacles mainly decrease the enterprises' direct export proportion. In addition, corruption will significantly reduce the export proportion of the small enterprises and increase export proportion of the large enterprises. Political instability mainly affects the export of the large enterprises. The paper proposes that the countries along the Belt and Road should improve customs efficiency to reduce the clearance time of import and export, create a transparent institutional environment with open policy and fair law, improve the conditions of transportation infrastructure so as to promote the trade facilitation level of the Belt and Road countries and increase the enterprises' export.
Based on the World Bank's enterprise survey data from 2011 to 2016 and taking23,075 enterprises in 49 countries along the Belt and Road as samples, this paper empirically studies the effects of trade facilitation on the export of manufacturing enterprises in the Belt and Road countries with 9 indicators from three dimensions of customs efficiency, policy transparency and infrastructure. The empirical results show that the increase in export customs clearance days, court barriers and transportation obstacles will significantly reduce the export proportion of the enterprises in the Belt and Road countries. When the export customs clearance days increase by one day, the proportion of the enterprises' exports will decrease by 0. 221%. The days of customs clearance for imports of raw material inputs from abroad will also reduce the export proportion of enterprises. Trade facilitation has different effects on the export proportion of the enterprises with different export modes and sizes. Import customs clearance days will significantly reduce the proportion of the enterprises' direct exports and increase the proportion of the enterprises' indirect exports. Transportation obstacles mainly decrease the enterprises' direct export proportion. In addition, corruption will significantly reduce the export proportion of the small enterprises and increase export proportion of the large enterprises. Political instability mainly affects the export of the large enterprises. The paper proposes that the countries along the Belt and Road should improve customs efficiency to reduce the clearance time of import and export, create a transparent institutional environment with open policy and fair law, improve the conditions of transportation infrastructure so as to promote the trade facilitation level of the Belt and Road countries and increase the enterprises' export.
引文
崔日明,黄英婉.2016.“一带一路”沿线国家贸易投资便利化评价指标体系研究[J].国际贸易问题(9):153-164.
董银果,吴秀云.2017.贸易便利化对中国出口的影响---以丝绸之路经济带为例[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)(2):26-37.
孔庆峰,董虹蔚.2015.“一带一路”国家的贸易便利化水平测算与贸易潜力研究[J].国际贸易问题(12):158-168.
刘宇,吕郢康,全水萍.2016.“一带一路”战略下贸易便利化的经济影响---以中哈贸易为例的GTAP模型研究[J].经济评论(6):70-83.
佟家栋,李连庆.2014.贸易政策透明度与贸易便利化影响---基于可计算一般均衡模型的分析[J].南开经济研究(4):3-16.
汪戎,李波.2015.贸易便利化与出口多样化:微观机理与跨国证据[J].国际贸易问题(3):33-43.
张晓静,李梁.2015.“一带一路”与中国出口贸易:基于贸易便利化视角[J].亚太经济(3):21-27.
Amin,M.,Haidar,J.I.2014.Trade facilitation and country size[J].Empirical Economics(4):1441-1466.
Dennis,A.,&Shepherd,B.2011.Trade facilitation and export diversification[J].The World Economy(1):101-122.
Feenstra,R.C.,&Ma,H.2014.Trade facilitation and the extensive margin of exports[J].The Japanese Economic Review(2):158-177.
Felipe,J.,&Kumar,U.2012.The role of trade facilitation in central Asia:a gravity model[J].Eastern European Economics(20):5-20.
Francois,J.F.,Van Meijl,H.,Van,Tongeren.F.2005.Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round[J].Economic Policy(42):349-391.
Li,Y.,&Wilson,J.S.2009.Trade facilitation and expanding the benefits of trade:Evidence from firm level data[R].Working Paper Series No.71,ARTNet.
Martinez-Zarzoso,I.,&Marquez-Ramos,L.2008.The effect of trade facilitation on sectoral trade[J].The BE Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy(1):1-46.
Persson,M.2013.Trade facilitation and the extensive margin[J].The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development(5):658-693.
Porto,S.,Canuto,O.,Morini,C.2015.The impacts of trade facilitation measures on international trade flows[R].Policy Research Working Paper No.7367,The World Bank.
Portugal-Perez,A.,&Wilson,J.S.2012.Export performance and trade facilitation reform:Hard and soft infrastructure[J].World Development(7):1295-1307.
Wilson,J.S.,Mann,C.L.,&Otsuki,T.2003.Trade facilitation and economic development:A new approach to quantifying the impact[J].The World Bank Economic Review(3):367-389.
Zaki,C.2010.Does trade facilitation matter in bilateral trade?[DB/OL].https://www.parisschool of economics.eu/IMG/pdf/JobMarket-1paper-ZAKI-PSE.pdf.
(1)商务部网站:http://www. mofcom. gov. cn/article/ae/ai/201702/20170202521961. shtml。
(2)“一带一路”(The Belt and Road)是“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的合作倡议,依据中国一带一路网(http://www. yidaiyilu. gov. cn),“一带一路”共有65个国家(包括中国)。
(3)中国网:http://www. china. com. cn/guoqing/2015-05/19/content_35607502. htm。
(4)潜变量是指观测到的因变量假定为潜在的或无法观测变量。
(5)文中用到的样本国家及年份为:中国(2012)、斯里兰卡(2011)、孟加拉(2013)、泰国(2016)、阿尔巴尼亚(2013)、格鲁吉亚(2013)、塔吉克斯坦(2013)、约旦(2013)、土耳其(2013)、乌克兰(2013)、乌兹别克斯坦(2013)、俄罗斯联邦(2012)、波兰(2013)、罗马尼亚(2013)、塞尔维亚(2013)、哈萨克斯坦(2013)、摩尔多瓦(2013)、阿塞拜疆(2013)、马其顿共和国(2013)、亚美尼亚(2013)、吉尔吉斯斯坦(2013)、蒙古(2013)、爱沙尼亚(2013)、捷克(2013)、匈牙利(2013)、拉脱维亚(2013)、立陶宛(2013)、斯洛伐克(2013)、斯洛文尼亚(2013)、克罗地亚(2013)、黑山(2013)、巴基斯坦(2013)、柬埔寨(2016)、埃及(2013)、阿富汗斯坦(2014)、尼泊尔(2013)、不丹(2015)、越南(2015)、印度尼西亚(2015)、菲律宾(2015)、东帝汶(2015)、马来西亚(2015)、也门(2013)、黎巴嫩(2013)、印度(2014)、以色列(2013)、缅甸(2014)、伊拉克(2011)和白俄罗斯(2013)。问卷中将制造业分为22个行业,代码为15~37(不报告代码为30的行业),有些国家的调查问卷将行业代码为31和32合并为行业31即电子行业,将行业34和35合并为34即交通运输设备行业,我们依此方法进行合并得到20个行业。
(6)问卷中将制造业分为22个行业,代码为15~37(不报告代码为30的行业),有些国家的调查问卷将行业代码为31和32合并为行业31即电子行业,将行业34和35合并为34即交通运输设备行业,我们依此方法进行合并得到20个行业。
董银果,吴秀云.2017.贸易便利化对中国出口的影响---以丝绸之路经济带为例[J].国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)(2):26-37.
孔庆峰,董虹蔚.2015.“一带一路”国家的贸易便利化水平测算与贸易潜力研究[J].国际贸易问题(12):158-168.
刘宇,吕郢康,全水萍.2016.“一带一路”战略下贸易便利化的经济影响---以中哈贸易为例的GTAP模型研究[J].经济评论(6):70-83.
佟家栋,李连庆.2014.贸易政策透明度与贸易便利化影响---基于可计算一般均衡模型的分析[J].南开经济研究(4):3-16.
汪戎,李波.2015.贸易便利化与出口多样化:微观机理与跨国证据[J].国际贸易问题(3):33-43.
张晓静,李梁.2015.“一带一路”与中国出口贸易:基于贸易便利化视角[J].亚太经济(3):21-27.
Amin,M.,Haidar,J.I.2014.Trade facilitation and country size[J].Empirical Economics(4):1441-1466.
Dennis,A.,&Shepherd,B.2011.Trade facilitation and export diversification[J].The World Economy(1):101-122.
Feenstra,R.C.,&Ma,H.2014.Trade facilitation and the extensive margin of exports[J].The Japanese Economic Review(2):158-177.
Felipe,J.,&Kumar,U.2012.The role of trade facilitation in central Asia:a gravity model[J].Eastern European Economics(20):5-20.
Francois,J.F.,Van Meijl,H.,Van,Tongeren.F.2005.Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round[J].Economic Policy(42):349-391.
Li,Y.,&Wilson,J.S.2009.Trade facilitation and expanding the benefits of trade:Evidence from firm level data[R].Working Paper Series No.71,ARTNet.
Martinez-Zarzoso,I.,&Marquez-Ramos,L.2008.The effect of trade facilitation on sectoral trade[J].The BE Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy(1):1-46.
Persson,M.2013.Trade facilitation and the extensive margin[J].The Journal of International Trade&Economic Development(5):658-693.
Porto,S.,Canuto,O.,Morini,C.2015.The impacts of trade facilitation measures on international trade flows[R].Policy Research Working Paper No.7367,The World Bank.
Portugal-Perez,A.,&Wilson,J.S.2012.Export performance and trade facilitation reform:Hard and soft infrastructure[J].World Development(7):1295-1307.
Wilson,J.S.,Mann,C.L.,&Otsuki,T.2003.Trade facilitation and economic development:A new approach to quantifying the impact[J].The World Bank Economic Review(3):367-389.
Zaki,C.2010.Does trade facilitation matter in bilateral trade?[DB/OL].https://www.parisschool of economics.eu/IMG/pdf/JobMarket-1paper-ZAKI-PSE.pdf.
(1)商务部网站:http://www. mofcom. gov. cn/article/ae/ai/201702/20170202521961. shtml。
(2)“一带一路”(The Belt and Road)是“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的合作倡议,依据中国一带一路网(http://www. yidaiyilu. gov. cn),“一带一路”共有65个国家(包括中国)。
(3)中国网:http://www. china. com. cn/guoqing/2015-05/19/content_35607502. htm。
(4)潜变量是指观测到的因变量假定为潜在的或无法观测变量。
(5)文中用到的样本国家及年份为:中国(2012)、斯里兰卡(2011)、孟加拉(2013)、泰国(2016)、阿尔巴尼亚(2013)、格鲁吉亚(2013)、塔吉克斯坦(2013)、约旦(2013)、土耳其(2013)、乌克兰(2013)、乌兹别克斯坦(2013)、俄罗斯联邦(2012)、波兰(2013)、罗马尼亚(2013)、塞尔维亚(2013)、哈萨克斯坦(2013)、摩尔多瓦(2013)、阿塞拜疆(2013)、马其顿共和国(2013)、亚美尼亚(2013)、吉尔吉斯斯坦(2013)、蒙古(2013)、爱沙尼亚(2013)、捷克(2013)、匈牙利(2013)、拉脱维亚(2013)、立陶宛(2013)、斯洛伐克(2013)、斯洛文尼亚(2013)、克罗地亚(2013)、黑山(2013)、巴基斯坦(2013)、柬埔寨(2016)、埃及(2013)、阿富汗斯坦(2014)、尼泊尔(2013)、不丹(2015)、越南(2015)、印度尼西亚(2015)、菲律宾(2015)、东帝汶(2015)、马来西亚(2015)、也门(2013)、黎巴嫩(2013)、印度(2014)、以色列(2013)、缅甸(2014)、伊拉克(2011)和白俄罗斯(2013)。问卷中将制造业分为22个行业,代码为15~37(不报告代码为30的行业),有些国家的调查问卷将行业代码为31和32合并为行业31即电子行业,将行业34和35合并为34即交通运输设备行业,我们依此方法进行合并得到20个行业。
(6)问卷中将制造业分为22个行业,代码为15~37(不报告代码为30的行业),有些国家的调查问卷将行业代码为31和32合并为行业31即电子行业,将行业34和35合并为34即交通运输设备行业,我们依此方法进行合并得到20个行业。