地区发电系统风电渗透率经济区间估算
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摘要
在发电系统中,风电渗透率的提高会带来双重经济影响,因此在电源规划时确定合理的风电并网比例是关键的一步。立足于国内电源结构以燃煤火电为主的实际,提出风电渗透率经济区间的估算方法,该估算方法在保证电量供应前提下,考虑风电并网后发电侧的整体效益水平,计算出经济层面的风电合理渗透区间。首先分析风电并网会带来的主要正向影响与负向影响;其次研究不同风电渗透率下,发电侧节能减排效益、投资成本、备用容量成本和调峰成本的计算方法,进而得出综合经济效益的计算方法,形成风电渗透率经济区间的计算模型;最后通过具体算例分析,计算不同风电渗透率下发电系统的各项经济影响变化,求解风电渗透率经济区间,分析模型参数变化对风电渗透率经济区间的影响。结果表明,提高系统灵活性和改善风电经济性是实现高比例风电并网的关键。
In the power generation system, the increase of wind power penetration rate will bring double economic influence, so it is a key step to determine the reasonable proportion of wind power integration in power planning. Based on the fact that coal-fired power is the main power supply structure in China, the estimation method of economic interval of wind power penetration rate is put forward. Under the premise of guaranteeing the supply of electric quantity, this method calculates the reasonable capacity interval of wind power at the economic level, considering the overall benefit level at the generation side after wind power being connected to the grid. Firstly, the main positive and negative factors that wind power integration brings are analyzed. Secondly, the calculation methods of energy saving, emission reduction benefit, investment cost, reserve capacity cost and peak cost are studied under different wind power penetration rate, and then the calculation method of comprehensive economic benefit is obtained. So, the calculation model of the economic zone of wind power penetration rate can be formed. Finally, through a specific example, the economic change of power generation system under different wind power penetration rate can be calculated. At the same time, the influence of different parameters of the power generation system on the economic zone of the wind power penetration rate is analyzed. The results show that improving the system flexibility and improving the economy of wind power are the keys to achieve the high proportion of wind power integration.
In the power generation system, the increase of wind power penetration rate will bring double economic influence, so it is a key step to determine the reasonable proportion of wind power integration in power planning. Based on the fact that coal-fired power is the main power supply structure in China, the estimation method of economic interval of wind power penetration rate is put forward. Under the premise of guaranteeing the supply of electric quantity, this method calculates the reasonable capacity interval of wind power at the economic level, considering the overall benefit level at the generation side after wind power being connected to the grid. Firstly, the main positive and negative factors that wind power integration brings are analyzed. Secondly, the calculation methods of energy saving, emission reduction benefit, investment cost, reserve capacity cost and peak cost are studied under different wind power penetration rate, and then the calculation method of comprehensive economic benefit is obtained. So, the calculation model of the economic zone of wind power penetration rate can be formed. Finally, through a specific example, the economic change of power generation system under different wind power penetration rate can be calculated. At the same time, the influence of different parameters of the power generation system on the economic zone of the wind power penetration rate is analyzed. The results show that improving the system flexibility and improving the economy of wind power are the keys to achieve the high proportion of wind power integration.
引文
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[16] 高凯,朱加明,葛延峰,等.联网风电场集群运行特性分析[J].东北电力大学学报,2014,34(4):11-16.GAO Kai,ZHU Jiaming,GE Yanfeng,et al.Analysis on operating characteristics of clustered wind farms[J].Journal of Northeast Dianli University,2014,34(4):11-16.
[17] 卢恩,王一,陈雨果,等.含复杂电源结构的电网调峰优化模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(20):119-126.LU En,WANG Yi,CHEN Yuguo,et al.Optimization model for peak load regulation of power system with complex generation structure [J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(20):119-126.
[18] 王娟娟,赵闻蕾,卢利虹,等.基于调峰成本的调峰容量调度策略研究[J].化工自动化及仪表,2015,42(5):523-526,584.WANG Juanjuan,ZHAO Wenlei,LU Lihong,et al.Scheduling strategy for thermal power units based on shadow price of peak-load regulation [J].Control and Instruments in Chemical Industry,2015,42(5):523-526,584.
[19] 曾雪婷,刘天琪,李茜,等.基于动态调峰裕度的风电并网协调优化调度[J].电网技术,2015,39(6):1685-1690.ZENG Xueting,LIU Tianqi,LI Qian,et al.A dynamic peak load regulation margin based coordinated optimal dispatching under grid:connection of wind farm [J].Power System Technology,2015,39(6):1685-1690.
[20] 何洋,胡军峰,闫志涛,等.大规模风电入网辅助服务成本补偿机制研究[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3552-3557.HE Yang,HU Junfeng,YAN Zhitao,et al.Compensation mechanism for ancillary service cost of grid-integration of large-scale wind farms [J].Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3552-3557.
[2] JIANG X,CHEN H,XIANG T.Assessing the effect of wind power peaking characteristics on the maximum penetration level of wind power [J].IET Generation Transmission & Distribution,2015,9(16):2466-2473.
[3] 张宁,康重庆,肖晋宇,等.风电容量可信度研究综述与展望[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(1):82-94.ZHANG Ning,KANG Chongqing,XIAO Jinyu,et al.Review and prospect of wind power capacity credit [J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(1):82-94.
[4] 雷亚洲,王伟胜,印永华,等.风电对电力系统运行的价值分析[J].电网技术,2002,26(5):10-14.LEI Yazhou,WANG Weisheng,YIN Yonghua,et al.Analysis of wind power value to power system operation [J].Power System Technology,2002,26(5):10-14.
[5] 周双喜,王海超,陈寿孙.风力发电运行价值分析[J].电网技术,2006,30(14):98-102.ZHOU Shuanxi,WANG Haichao,CHEN Shousun.Analysis on operation value of wind power resources [J].Power System Technology,2006,30(14):98-102.
[6] 严干贵,刘红哲,穆钢,等.特殊运行条件下风电的“挤出效应”及风电节能减排综合效益的评估[J].电网技术,2012,36(4):51-56.YAN Guiganm,LIU Hongzhe,MU Gang,et al.Crowding-out effect of wind power under special condition and comprehensive evaluation on energy-saving and emission reduction benefits of wind power generation [J].Power System Technology,2012,36(4):51-56.
[7] 朱柯丁,宋艺航,谭忠富,等.中国风电并网现状及风电节能减排效益分析[J].中国电力,2011,44(6):67-70,77.ZHU Keding,SONG Yihang,TAN Zhongfu,et al.China's wind power grid status quo and the analysis of wind power energy conservation and emissions reduction benefits[J].Electric Power,2011,44(6):67-70,77.
[8] MATTMANN M,LOGAR I,BROUWER R.Wind power externalities:a meta-analysis [J].Ecological Economics,2016,127:23-36.
[9] EBRAHIMI M,HASANPOUR S.Cournot equilibrium analysis for influence of wind power on Genco's profit considering carbon emission market [C]//2014 IEEE International Congress on Technology,Communication and Knowledge.November 26-27,2014,Mashhad,Iran.New York:IEEE,2014.C1-335-C1-337.
[10] 叶冬燕,王湘赞.风电发展影响因素及节能减排效益分析[J].电网与清洁能源,2012,28(10):69-73.YE Dongyan,WANG Xiangzan.An analysis on influencing factors of wind power development and benefits of energy conservation and emission reduction [J].Power System and Clean Energy,2012,28(10):69-73.
[11] ZHANG J,LEI Y,LIU F,et al.Wind power consumptive problem in the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction [C]//2014 IEEE Workshop on Advanced Research and Technology in Industry Applications (WARTIA),September 29-30,2014,Ottawa,ON,USA.New York:IEEE,2014:32-35.
[12] 颜巧燕,温步瀛,江岳文.风电并网后系统备用容量需求分析[J].电力与电工,2009,29(2):14-16.YAN Qiaoyan,WEN Buying,JIANG Yuewen.Analysis for reserved capacity of system with wind power connecting into system [J].Power and Electrical,2009,29(2):14-16.
[13] 赵云丽,吕泉,朱全胜,等.风电并网后系统备用的相关问题综述[J].可再生能源,2015,33(4):565-571.ZHAO Yunli,Lü Quan,ZHU Quansheng,et al.Overview on issues related to reserve capacity by wind power connected to the grid [J].Renewable Energy Resources,2015,33(4):565-571.
[14] 张宁,周天睿,段长刚,等.大规模风电场接入对电力系统调峰的影响[J].电网技术,2010,34(1):152-158.ZHANG Ning,ZHOU Tianrui,DUAN Changgang,et al.Impact of large-scale wind farm connecting with power grid on peak load regulation demand [J].Power System Technology,2010,34(1):152-158.
[15] 张宏宇,印永华,申洪,等.基于序贯蒙特卡洛方法的风电并网系统调峰裕度评估[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(1):32-37.ZHANG Hongyu,YIN Yonghua,SHEN Hong,et al.peak-shaving margin evaluation associated with wind power integrated system based on sequential Monte-Carlo method [J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(1):32-37.
[16] 高凯,朱加明,葛延峰,等.联网风电场集群运行特性分析[J].东北电力大学学报,2014,34(4):11-16.GAO Kai,ZHU Jiaming,GE Yanfeng,et al.Analysis on operating characteristics of clustered wind farms[J].Journal of Northeast Dianli University,2014,34(4):11-16.
[17] 卢恩,王一,陈雨果,等.含复杂电源结构的电网调峰优化模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(20):119-126.LU En,WANG Yi,CHEN Yuguo,et al.Optimization model for peak load regulation of power system with complex generation structure [J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(20):119-126.
[18] 王娟娟,赵闻蕾,卢利虹,等.基于调峰成本的调峰容量调度策略研究[J].化工自动化及仪表,2015,42(5):523-526,584.WANG Juanjuan,ZHAO Wenlei,LU Lihong,et al.Scheduling strategy for thermal power units based on shadow price of peak-load regulation [J].Control and Instruments in Chemical Industry,2015,42(5):523-526,584.
[19] 曾雪婷,刘天琪,李茜,等.基于动态调峰裕度的风电并网协调优化调度[J].电网技术,2015,39(6):1685-1690.ZENG Xueting,LIU Tianqi,LI Qian,et al.A dynamic peak load regulation margin based coordinated optimal dispatching under grid:connection of wind farm [J].Power System Technology,2015,39(6):1685-1690.
[20] 何洋,胡军峰,闫志涛,等.大规模风电入网辅助服务成本补偿机制研究[J].电网技术,2013,37(12):3552-3557.HE Yang,HU Junfeng,YAN Zhitao,et al.Compensation mechanism for ancillary service cost of grid-integration of large-scale wind farms [J].Power System Technology,2013,37(12):3552-3557.