降水量突变对汾河流域汛期影响研究
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摘要
传统汛期分期方法计算繁琐且较少考虑气候的变化,为更加科学合理地进行汛期分期,本文采用CSD法检测到1957-2014年汾河流域降水量(p)突变年为1985年,然后以1985年为分界点,应用判别模式法对汾河流域进行汛期分期,并引入均方差评价指标S对各分期结果进行评价。研究表明:由CSD检测法得到汾河流域降水量突变年为1985年,以突变年为分界点,得到1986-2014年主汛期较1957-1985年汛期分期短30天,降水量呈减少趋势的地区,降水量突变年后主汛期会较突变年前缩短。
The traditional calculation method of flood season staging is complex computation and less consideration of the climate change. In order to let flood season staging more scientific and rational,the abrupt change of precipitation(p)in Fenhe River Basin from 1957 to 2014 was detected by CSD method in this paper,which is 1985. Take 1985 as the cut-off point,the discriminant pattern method was used for flood season staging of Fenhe River Basin,and the mean square error evaluation index S was introduced to evaluate the results for all stages. The results show that 1985 is the abrupt change year of precipitation and precipitation in Fenhe river basin,the main flood season from 1986 to 2014 is 30 days shorter than that from 1957 to 1985. The area whose precipitation shows a decreasing trend,the main flood season after the abrupt change of precipitation would be shorter than that before the abrupt change.
The traditional calculation method of flood season staging is complex computation and less consideration of the climate change. In order to let flood season staging more scientific and rational,the abrupt change of precipitation(p)in Fenhe River Basin from 1957 to 2014 was detected by CSD method in this paper,which is 1985. Take 1985 as the cut-off point,the discriminant pattern method was used for flood season staging of Fenhe River Basin,and the mean square error evaluation index S was introduced to evaluate the results for all stages. The results show that 1985 is the abrupt change year of precipitation and precipitation in Fenhe river basin,the main flood season from 1986 to 2014 is 30 days shorter than that from 1957 to 1985. The area whose precipitation shows a decreasing trend,the main flood season after the abrupt change of precipitation would be shorter than that before the abrupt change.
引文
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[10]李辉,何晓燕,任明磊,等.大桥水库汛限水位分期控制研究[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(2):86-91,96.
[2]罗姗姗,宋星原,张艳军,杨琳,雷璐,袁迪.汛期分期分析方法在佛子岭水库群的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(02):44-48.
[3]肖聪,顾圣平,崔巍,高力,李振.Fisher最优分割法在李仙江流域汛期分期中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(03):70-74.
[4]王权威,祝雪萍,武鹏林,等.基于过渡理论的不同论域对汛期分期影响研究[J].水力发电,2018,44(03):10-14.
[5]唐莉,张永波,祝雪萍,王权威.基于主成分分析法与量变质变判别模式的汛期分期[J].水力发电,2018,44(05):27-31.
[6]Onyutha,C. Statistical Uncertainty in Hydrometeorological Trend Analyses. Advances in Meteorology 2016,1-26.
[7]Onyutha,C. Identification of sub-trends from hydro-meteorological series. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 2015,30,189–205.
[8]Onyutha,C. On Rigorous Drought Assessment Using Daily Time Scale:Non-Stationary Frequency Analyses,Revisited Concepts,and a New Method to Yield Non-Parametric Indices.Hydrology 2017,4(4),48.
[9]舒章康,刘冀,董晓华,等.大伙房水库汛期径流变化趋势及影响因素定量分离研究[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(2):22-26,36.
[10]李辉,何晓燕,任明磊,等.大桥水库汛限水位分期控制研究[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(2):86-91,96.