地理探测器方法下北京市人口空间格局变化与自然因素的关系研究
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摘要
人口空间分布具有尺度特征,从乡镇街道尺度研究自然因素对城市人口空间格局的影响有利于得出更精细的结果,并为城市人口合理布局和规划提供科学依据。论文利用第五、六次人口普查乡镇街道数据,分析北京市人口空间格局特征,利用地理探测器研究自然因素对人口分布的影响。研究表明:1)自然因素对不同类型人口空间格局影响具有差异性。对常住人口作用强度由大到小的自然因素分别是适宜建设用地面积、地形起伏度、坡度、海拔高程和河网密度,对外来人口作用力由大到小的自然因素分别是地形起伏度、适宜建设用地面积、坡度、海拔高程和河网密度;2)自然因素对不同地区人口空间格局影响具有差异性。除适宜建设用地面积外,坡度和河网密度分别对六环内、外区域人口密度影响较大。高程和地形起伏度对六环外人口格局作用力高于六环内地区;3)两类自然因素叠加对人口密度作用的强化方式体现为因素相互协同或因素作用力非线性增加。5类自然因素对人口密度的影响力交互作用探测值为1,各类自然因素对城市人口空间格局的影响力协同增强。
The spatial distribution of population presents different features as the scale varies.Studies on the effect of natural resources on urban population distribution on the scale of street and township could provide more precise results. This research aims to provide a scientific foundation for reasonable population distribution arrangement and urban planning. Based on the data of the fifth population census and the sixth population census in Beijing on the scale of street and township, this paper analyzed the features of both the permanent residents distribution and the floating population distribution in Beijing by exploration of spatial data analysis with Arc GIS. The geographical detector was used to explore the effect of various zonal natural factors on the population distribution. The natural factors in our analysis which have been proved to influence the population distribution include the altitude, slope, relief degree of land surface, water system density, and suitable construction land. The results showed that: 1) The natural factors have different impacts on permanent residents and floating population distribution. The natural resources having effects on the permanent residents density were the suitable construction land(0.336), the relief degree of land surface(0.236), the slope(0.230), the altitude(0.182), and water system density(0.145) in descending order according to factor dictator of geographical detector.And the natural factors having impacts on the floating population density were the relief degree of land surface(0.260), the suitable construction land(0.246), the slope(0.227), altitude(0.197), and water system density(0.111) in descending order. 2) The natural factors had different impacts on the spatial pattern of population in different regions. For the regions both inside and outside the sixth express way loop, the suitable construction land was the most decisive natural influential factor. Besides the suitable construction land, the slope(0.191) was the second decisive natural influential factor to the population distribution in the regions inside the sixth express way loop,and the water system density(0.148) was the second decisive natural influential factor to the population distribution in the regions outside the sixth express way loop. These two natural factors had greater impact on the population density than other natural influential factors. The altitude had more profound impact on the population density in the regions outside the sixth express way loop(0.093) than they did to the regions inside the sixth express way loop(0.051). The PDUvalue of relief degree of land surface on the population density in the regions outside the sixth express way loop was 0.125, larger than that of the regions inside the sixth express way loop which valued0.009. 3) The result of interaction detector from the geographical detector showed that the overlay impact of two natural factors on population density got intensified, and the intensified effect was often presented as the synergy of two factors or the non-linear increase of two factors. The comprehensive impact of five natural factors on population density valued 1, which disclosed that the natural factors enhanced each other when they influenced the population distribution.
The spatial distribution of population presents different features as the scale varies.Studies on the effect of natural resources on urban population distribution on the scale of street and township could provide more precise results. This research aims to provide a scientific foundation for reasonable population distribution arrangement and urban planning. Based on the data of the fifth population census and the sixth population census in Beijing on the scale of street and township, this paper analyzed the features of both the permanent residents distribution and the floating population distribution in Beijing by exploration of spatial data analysis with Arc GIS. The geographical detector was used to explore the effect of various zonal natural factors on the population distribution. The natural factors in our analysis which have been proved to influence the population distribution include the altitude, slope, relief degree of land surface, water system density, and suitable construction land. The results showed that: 1) The natural factors have different impacts on permanent residents and floating population distribution. The natural resources having effects on the permanent residents density were the suitable construction land(0.336), the relief degree of land surface(0.236), the slope(0.230), the altitude(0.182), and water system density(0.145) in descending order according to factor dictator of geographical detector.And the natural factors having impacts on the floating population density were the relief degree of land surface(0.260), the suitable construction land(0.246), the slope(0.227), altitude(0.197), and water system density(0.111) in descending order. 2) The natural factors had different impacts on the spatial pattern of population in different regions. For the regions both inside and outside the sixth express way loop, the suitable construction land was the most decisive natural influential factor. Besides the suitable construction land, the slope(0.191) was the second decisive natural influential factor to the population distribution in the regions inside the sixth express way loop,and the water system density(0.148) was the second decisive natural influential factor to the population distribution in the regions outside the sixth express way loop. These two natural factors had greater impact on the population density than other natural influential factors. The altitude had more profound impact on the population density in the regions outside the sixth express way loop(0.093) than they did to the regions inside the sixth express way loop(0.051). The PDUvalue of relief degree of land surface on the population density in the regions outside the sixth express way loop was 0.125, larger than that of the regions inside the sixth express way loop which valued0.009. 3) The result of interaction detector from the geographical detector showed that the overlay impact of two natural factors on population density got intensified, and the intensified effect was often presented as the synergy of two factors or the non-linear increase of two factors. The comprehensive impact of five natural factors on population density valued 1, which disclosed that the natural factors enhanced each other when they influenced the population distribution.
引文
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[2]葛美玲,封志明.基于GIS的中国2000年人口之分布格局研究——兼与胡焕庸1935年之研究对比[J].人口研究,2008,32(1):51-57.[GE M L,FENG Z M.Research on distribution pattern of population of China in 2000 based on GIS:Compared with Hu Huanyong’s research in 1935.Population Research,2008,32(1):51-57.]
[3]葛美玲,封志明.中国人口分布的密度分级与重心曲线特征分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(2):202-210.[GE M L,FENG Z M.Population distribution of China based on GIS:Classification of population densities and curve of population gravity centers.Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(2):202-210.]
[4]吕晨,樊杰,孙威.基于ESDA的中国人口空间格局及影响因素研究[J].经济地理,2009,29(11):1797-1802.[LüC,FAN J,SUN W.Population distribution and the influencing factors based on ESDA.Economic Geography,2009,29(11):1797-1802.]
[5]潘倩,金晓斌,周寅康.近300年来中国人口变化及时空分布格局[J].地理研究,2013,32(7):1291-1302.[PAN Q,JIN X B,ZHOU Y K.Population change and spatiotemporal distribution of China in recent 300 years.Geographical Research,2013,32(7):1291-1302.]
[6]陈明星,李扬,龚颖华,等.胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势——尝试回答李克强总理之问[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):179-193.[CHEN M X,LI Y,HONG Y H,et al.The population distribution and trend of urbanization pattern on two sides of Hu Huanyong population line:A tentative response to Premier Li Keqiang.Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(2):179-193.]
[7]段学军,王书国,陈雯.长江三角洲地区人口分布演化与偏移增长[J].地理科学,2008,28(2):139-144.[DUAN X J,WANG S G,CHEN W.Evolution of population distribution and growth shift in Changjiang River Delta.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2008,28(2):139-144.]
[8]汪思言,杨传国,庞华,等.珠江流域人口分布特征及其影响因素分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(S2):447-450.[WANG S Y,YANG C G,PANG H.et al.Characteristics of population distribution in the Pearl River Basin and the impact factors analysis.China Population,Resources and Environment,2014,24(S2):447-450.]
[9]张耀军,张振.京津冀区域人口空间分布影响因素研究[J].人口与发展,2015,21(3):2-9.[ZHANG Y J,ZHANG Z.Impacting factors on population spatial distribution in Jing-Jin-Ji metropolis.Population&Development,2015,21(3):2-9.]
[10]张海霞,牛叔文,齐敬辉,等.基于乡镇尺度的河南省人口分布的地统计学分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(2):325-336.[ZHANG H X,NIU S W,QI J H,et al.Geological statistics analysis of population distribution at township level in Henan Province.Geographical Research,2016,35(2):325-336.]
[11]车冰清,仇方道.基于镇域尺度的江苏省人口分布空间格局演变[J].地理科学,2015,35(11):1381-1387.[CHE B Q,QIU F D.Spatio-temporal changes of population distribution at sub-district level in Jiangsu Province.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(11):1381-1387.]
[12]杨卡.大北京人口分布格局与多中心性测度[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):83-89.[YANG K.Population distribution and multicenter measurement of great Beijing.China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(2):83-89.]
[13]曾宪新.城市规模快速增长下的特大城市人口分布的变动分析——以北京为例[J].西北人口,2015,36(6):6-11.[ZENG X X.The change of the population distribution in Beijing under the rapid development of urban:Base on the comparison analysis of the census data.The Journal of Northwest Population,2015,36(6):6-11.]
[14]刘乃全,耿文才.上海市人口空间分布格局的演变及其影响因素分析——基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].财经研究,2015,41(2):99-110.[LIU N Q,GENG W C.On the evolution of population spatial pattern in Shanghai and its influencing factors:Empirical research based on spatial panel model.Journal of Finance and Economics,2015,41(2):99-110.]
[15]柏中强,王卷乐,杨雅萍,等.基于乡镇尺度的中国25省区人口分布特征及影响因素[J].地理学报,2015,70(8):1229-1242.[BAI Z Q,WANG J L,YANG Y P,et al.Characterizing spatial patterns of population distribution at township level across the 25 provinces in China.Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(8):1229-1242.]
[16]孟延春,汤苍松.改革开放以来北京市人口空间分布的变动特征——基于1982—2010年四次人口普查资料的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(3):135-142.[MENG Y C,TANG C S.Study on the trend of population spatial distribution in Beijing since the reform and opening-up:Based on analyzing the data of four population census from1982 to 2010.China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(3):135-142.]
[17]刘望保,闫小培,陈忠暖.基于EDSA-GIS的广州市人口空间分布演化研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(1):34-39.[LIU W B,YAN X P,CHEN Z N.Evolutional trends of population spatial distribution structure in Guangdong based on EDSA-GIS technique.Economic Geography,2010,30(1):34-39.]
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