基于GWR模型的河南省人口分布的影响因素研究
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摘要
近年来,人口作为一种基本信息已成为目前研究的热点问题之一.人口分布可能受自然,经济,社会,政治等诸多因素的影响.因此,人口分布的研究对于了解不同类型区域的人口资源与经济发展之间的关系,因地制宜地发展本地经济具有重大意义.课题以河南省统计年鉴数据为基础,研究河南省人口分布的影响因素.具体来说,首先利用Surfer软件的可视化技术研究了河南省人口数量的空间变化特征.其次,利用近年来发展起来的地理加权回归模型对河南省人口分布的影响因素进行了定量分析.通过上述分析提取有效信息,从而为制定合理的人口政策和实现人口的有序流动提供必要的理论支持.
In recent years,the population,as one kind of basic information,has become one of the hottest issues which we studied.Population distribution may be affected by many factors,such as natural,economic,social and political elements.Therefore,it makes great sense for learning the relationship between the different types of regional population resources and the economical development and adjusting measures to local conditions to develop economy.Based on the data which is from the statistical yearbook of Henan province,this paper focuses on studying the influential factors of population distribution.Specifically,the visualization technique of Surfer software is first used to study the spatial characteristics of the total population in Henan province.Secondly,the geographically weighted regression model developed in recent years is applied to investigate the influential factors of population distribution.Through the above analysis,some effective information is extracted to make reasonable population policy of Henan province and to realize the orderly flow of population.
In recent years,the population,as one kind of basic information,has become one of the hottest issues which we studied.Population distribution may be affected by many factors,such as natural,economic,social and political elements.Therefore,it makes great sense for learning the relationship between the different types of regional population resources and the economical development and adjusting measures to local conditions to develop economy.Based on the data which is from the statistical yearbook of Henan province,this paper focuses on studying the influential factors of population distribution.Specifically,the visualization technique of Surfer software is first used to study the spatial characteristics of the total population in Henan province.Secondly,the geographically weighted regression model developed in recent years is applied to investigate the influential factors of population distribution.Through the above analysis,some effective information is extracted to make reasonable population policy of Henan province and to realize the orderly flow of population.
引文
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[2]李百岁,同力嘎.内蒙古人口城市化Logistic模型及其应用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2007,2:32-36.
[3]冯守平.中国人口增长预测模型[J].安徽科技学院学报,2008,6:73-76.
[4]陈文权,赵兹,李得胜.Leslie修正模型在人口预测中的应用[J].世界科技研究与发展,2008,2:219-224.
[5]李南,胡华清.中国随机人口预测[J].中国人口科学,1998,1:10-16.
[6]李南,胡华清.基于随机方法的中国人口预测与规划[J].系统工程理论方法应用,1998,1:37-41.
[7]付莹.回归分析在人口预测中的应用[J].辽宁高职学报,2000,1:56-58.
[8]李旭东.贵州喀斯特高原人口分布的自然环境因素Ⅱ.多元回归分析与地带性研究[J].干旱区研究,2007.2:280-286.
[9]陈爱平,安和平.中国人口时间序列预测模型的探讨[J].人口与经济,2004,6:63-67.
[10]薛臻.我国人口增长预测数学模型[J],河南科技学院学撤(自然科学版),2008,1:123.127.
[11]周诗国.我国人口的灰色预测模型研究及其应用[J].数理医药学杂志,2005,4:307-309.
[12]张静,王兴华.利用神经网络预测人口数量[J].襄樊学院学报,2001,5:73-76.
[13]Wang N,Mei C L,Yan X D.Local linear estimation of spatially varying coefficient models:an improvement on the geographically weighted regression technique[J].Environment and Planning A,2008,40:986-1005.
[14]Hastie T J,Tibshirani R J.Generalized Additive Models[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1990.
[15]Hart J D.Nonparametric Smoothing and Lack-of-Fit Tests[M].New York:Springer,1997.
[16]沈永年,孔庆瑜.1980西安坐标系快速高斯投影计算公式[J].冶金测绘,1994,3:36-41.
[17]Lee Y,Mei C L,Zhang W X.LStatistical tests for spatial nonstationarity based on the geographically weighted regression model[J].Environment and Planning A,2000,32:9-32.