基于GRA-SPA耦合模型的煤矿充填系统稳定性评判
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摘要
为预防煤矿充填系统运行安全事故,综合运用灰色关联分析法(GRA)和集对分析法(SPA),研究煤矿充填系统稳定性。首先,建立充填系统稳定性评判指标体系,并采用AHP法确定各指标权重;然后,构建GRA-SPA耦合评判模型,通过将评价集与指标集建立集对、计算其绝对关联度及综合联系度来确定评价对象等级,并预测其发展趋势;最后,以某矿充填系统为例,用所建模型评判其稳定性。结果表明:该矿充填系统稳定性等级为较稳定,且有向好的方向发展的趋势,但不明显,仍需引起重视。该模型能够将充填系统各指标因子的同一性、差异性和对立性通过联系度系数定量化,得到与实际情况相一致的评判结论,为煤矿充填开采安全管理提供参考。
In order to prevent accidents in filling systems of coal mines,the stability of a filling system was studied using the theory of set pair analysis and the grey relational analysis. Firstly,a stability evaluation index system was constructed for the filling system,and the weight of each indicator was determined by the method of AHP. Secondly,a GRA-SPA coupling model was built. The stability level of the filling system was determined, and the trend in its development was forecasted. Then, the countermeasures for improving the stability of the filling system were proposed. The results show that the filling system is " relatively stable",and there is a weak tendency to be " stable",so the monitoring of the filling system should still be strengthened,that the model not only can quantify the identity,difference and opposition of the index factors by the linkage coefficient,but also can get the evaluation conclusion consistent with the actual situation,and that this method can provide a reference for safety management of filling system.
In order to prevent accidents in filling systems of coal mines,the stability of a filling system was studied using the theory of set pair analysis and the grey relational analysis. Firstly,a stability evaluation index system was constructed for the filling system,and the weight of each indicator was determined by the method of AHP. Secondly,a GRA-SPA coupling model was built. The stability level of the filling system was determined, and the trend in its development was forecasted. Then, the countermeasures for improving the stability of the filling system were proposed. The results show that the filling system is " relatively stable",and there is a weak tendency to be " stable",so the monitoring of the filling system should still be strengthened,that the model not only can quantify the identity,difference and opposition of the index factors by the linkage coefficient,but also can get the evaluation conclusion consistent with the actual situation,and that this method can provide a reference for safety management of filling system.
引文
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[3]崔刚,孙恒虎.模糊控制在胶结充填系统中的应用研究[J].煤炭学报,2001,26(4):360-363.CUI Gang,SUN,Henghu.Study on applicating to hydraulic fill system of fuzzy control[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2001,26(4):360-363.
[4]李夕兵,魏威,赵彬.充填系统稳定性评价指标体系的构建及定量分析[J].科技导报,2013,31(31):43-47.LI Xibing,WEI Wei,ZHAO Bin.Construction and quantitative analysis of evaluation index system on stability of filling system[J].Science&Technology Review,2013,31(31):43-47.
[5]王石,张钦礼,王新民.SD在金川龙首矿充填系统稳定性预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(9):159-165.WANG Shi,ZHANG Qinli,WANG Xinmin.Application of SD in stability prediction of filling system in Jinchuan Longshou mine[J].China Safety Science Journal,2014,24(9):159-165.
[6]薛希龙,王新民,张钦礼.充填管道磨损风险评估的组合权重与可变模糊耦合模型[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2016,47(11):3 752-3 758.XUE Xilong,WANG Xinmin,ZHANG Qinli.An integrated model of combination weights and variable fuzzy on evaluating backfill pipeline wear risk[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2016,47(11):3 752-3 758.
[7]陈骥,邹树梁,唐德文,等.基于灰色关联度的集对分析方法在高层建筑火灾危险性评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(5):137-141.CHEN Ji,ZOU Shuliang,TANG Dewen,et al.Application of set pair analysis method based on gray correlation in fire risk assessment of high buildings[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(5):137-141.
[8]岳希坚,袁永博,张明媛,等.基于复杂网络理论识别油库关键安全风险因素[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(5):146-151.YUE Xijian,YUAN Yongbo,ZHANG Mingyuan,et al.Identification of oil depot based critical safety risk factors inon complex network theory[J].China Safety Science Journal,2017,27(5):146-151.
[9]史俊伟,魏中举,刘庆龙,等.基于正交试验的煤矿安全开采充填材料配比优化研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(6):111-115.SHI Junwei,WEI Zhongju,LIU Qinglong,et al.Research on proportion optimizing of paste filling material based on orthogonal experiment in coal mine[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(6):111-115.
[10]史俊伟,陈章良,孙玉峰,等.充填开采控制地表沉陷可靠性模糊综合评判[J].中国钨业,2015,30(4):21-26.SHI Junwei,CHEN Zhangliang,SUN Yufeng,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of backfill mining controlling surface subsidence[J].China Tungsten Industry,2015,30(4):21-26.