基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数的新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹驱动因素研究
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摘要
水资源紧缺是限制我国西北干旱区农业发展的主要瓶颈,正确评估地区农业用水效率及其影响机制,可为提高农业用水效率提供理论依据。以新疆为研究区,基于1988-2015年的长系列数据,分别计算出历年北疆、南疆、东疆典型作物(小麦、棉花)生产水足迹,并采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数定量分析气象因素(年降雨量、年日照时数、年均温度、年均风速、年均湿度)和技术因素(农机总动力、有效灌溉率、化肥施用折纯量)对作物生产水足迹的影响贡献率。结果表明:1988年至2015年,东疆小麦、棉花生产水足迹显著高于北疆和南疆,在气候变化和技术进步的综合影响下,各地区典型作物生产水足迹逐年降低,其中技术进步对新疆典型作物单产水足迹影响显著高于气候因素,是驱动新疆各地区典型作物生产水足迹变化的主要控制因素。地区尺度上,北疆、南疆、东疆气候变化和农业技术发展均呈现显著的地区差异,总体来看,北疆气候条件最适宜作物生长,东疆气候最为恶劣,北疆、南疆农业技术发展速率整体上高于东疆。
The shortage of water resources is a main bottleneck restricting the agricultural development in the arid regions of Northwest China. Correct assessment of regional agricultural water use efficiency and its impact mechanisms can provide a theoretical basis for improving agricultural water use efficiency. In this study, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as the study area; using the water footprint of crop production(WF) as an indicator of water consumption, the water footprints of typical crops(wheat and cotton) are calculated in North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang and East Xinjiang from 1988 through 2015. On this basis, the influencing factors were evaluated of changes in WF during the 28-year from the perspectives of change in climate(temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed and relative humidity) and technical factors(agricultural machinery power, fertilizer consumption and the rate of effective irrigation) by the method of Cobb-Douglas production function. The results show that from 1988 through 2015, the water footprint of wheat and cotton in East Xinjiang had been significantly higher than that in North and South Xinjiang. Under the combined influence of climate change and technological progress, the water footprint of typical crop production in each region has been significantly reduced. Furthermore, the influence of technological progress on the water footprint of typical crop production in Xinjiang had been significantly higher than that of climatic factors, and become the main controlling factor driving the change of water footprint of typical crop production in various regions of Xinjiang. On the regional scale, climate change and agricultural technology development show significant regional differences. Overall, the climatic condition in North Xinjiang had been the most suitable for crop growth, while the climate in East Xinjiang had been the worst. The climate change over the 28 years in North and East Xinjiang had reduced the water demand of crops, while the situation in South Xinjiang had been reversed. The rate of agriculture technological development in North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang had been generally higher than that in East Xinjiang. However, to adjust the planting structure to give play to regional climate advantages and to improve agricultural water use efficiency in East Xinjiang are worth learning for other regions.
The shortage of water resources is a main bottleneck restricting the agricultural development in the arid regions of Northwest China. Correct assessment of regional agricultural water use efficiency and its impact mechanisms can provide a theoretical basis for improving agricultural water use efficiency. In this study, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as the study area; using the water footprint of crop production(WF) as an indicator of water consumption, the water footprints of typical crops(wheat and cotton) are calculated in North Xinjiang, South Xinjiang and East Xinjiang from 1988 through 2015. On this basis, the influencing factors were evaluated of changes in WF during the 28-year from the perspectives of change in climate(temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed and relative humidity) and technical factors(agricultural machinery power, fertilizer consumption and the rate of effective irrigation) by the method of Cobb-Douglas production function. The results show that from 1988 through 2015, the water footprint of wheat and cotton in East Xinjiang had been significantly higher than that in North and South Xinjiang. Under the combined influence of climate change and technological progress, the water footprint of typical crop production in each region has been significantly reduced. Furthermore, the influence of technological progress on the water footprint of typical crop production in Xinjiang had been significantly higher than that of climatic factors, and become the main controlling factor driving the change of water footprint of typical crop production in various regions of Xinjiang. On the regional scale, climate change and agricultural technology development show significant regional differences. Overall, the climatic condition in North Xinjiang had been the most suitable for crop growth, while the climate in East Xinjiang had been the worst. The climate change over the 28 years in North and East Xinjiang had reduced the water demand of crops, while the situation in South Xinjiang had been reversed. The rate of agriculture technological development in North Xinjiang and South Xinjiang had been generally higher than that in East Xinjiang. However, to adjust the planting structure to give play to regional climate advantages and to improve agricultural water use efficiency in East Xinjiang are worth learning for other regions.
引文
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[20] Xu Changchun,Chen Yaning,Yang Yuhui,et al.Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(4):599-612.
[21] Li Qihu,Chen Yaning,Shen Yanjun,et al.Spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang,China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011,21(6):1007-1018.
[22] Hoekstra A Y,Chapagain A K,Aldaya M M,et al.Water footprint manual state of the art 2009[R].Water Footprint Report,2009.
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[24] Guo Xiaoqin,Liu Mingchun,Qian Li,et al.Evolution regularity of precipitation in the Shiyang River basin on Mann-Kendall features[J].Arid Land Geography,2010,33(4):593-599.[郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理(汉文版),2010,33(4):593-599.]
[25] Zhang Qinghua,Diao Yanyang,Dong Jie.Regional water demand prediction and analysis based on Cobb-Douglas model[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27(8):3103-3113.
[26] Sun Shikun,Wu Pute,Wang Yubao,et al.The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,444(2):498.
[27] Wang Mei,Yang Qian,Zheng Jianghua,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of water requirement of cotton in Xinjiang from 1963 to 2012[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(13):4122-4130.[王梅,杨倩,郑江华,等.1963-2012年新疆棉花需水量时空分布特征[J].生态学报,2016,36(13):4122-4130.]
[28] Ni Guangheng,Li Xinhong,Cong Zhentao,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of reference evapotranspiration in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2006,22(5):1-4.[倪广恒,李新红,丛振涛,等.中国参考作物腾发量时空变化特性分析[J].农业工程学报,2006,22(5):1-4.]
[29] Li Yi,Zhou Mudan.Projections of water requirements of cotton and sugar beet in Xinjiang based on statistical downscaling model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(22):70-79.[李毅,周牡丹.新疆地区棉花和甜菜需水量的统计降尺度模型预测[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(22):70-79.]
[2] Hoekstra A Y,Hung P Q.Virtual water trade[R]//A quantification of virtual water flows between nations in relation to international crop trade.Value of Water Research Report Series,2002,11:166.
[3] Hoekstra A Y,Chapagain A K.Globalization of water:sharing the planet′s freshwater resources[M].John Wiley & Sons,2011.
[4] Mekonnen M M,Hoekstra A Y.A global and high-resolution assessment of the green,blue and grey water footprint of wheat[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2010,14(7):1259-1276.
[5] Chapagain A K,Hoekstra A Y.The blue,green and grey water footprint of rice from production and consumption perspectives[J].Ecological Economics,2011,70(4):749-758.
[6] Marano R P,Filippi R A.Water footprint in paddy rice systems.Its determination in the provinces of Santa Fe and Entre R os,Argentina[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,56:229-236.
[7] Nana E,Corbari C,Bocchiola D.A model for crop yield and water footprint assessment:study of maize in the Po valley[J].Agricultural Systems,2014,127:139-149.
[8] Chapagain A K,Hoekstra A Y,Savenije H H G,et al.The water footprint of cotton consumption:an assessment of the impact of worldwide consumption of cotton products on the water resources in the cotton producing countries[J].Ecological Economics,2006,60(1):186-203.
[9] Aldaya M M,Muňoz G,Hoekstra A Y.Water footprint of cotton,wheat and rice production in Central Asia[M].UNESCO-IHE,2010.
[10] Lovarelli D,Bacenetti J,Fiala M.Water footprint of crop productions:A review[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,548:236-251.
[11] Sun Shikun,Wang Yubao,Liu Jing,et al.Quantification and evaluation of water footprint of major grain crops in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(9):1115-1124.[孙世坤,王玉宝,刘静,等.中国主要粮食作物的生产水足迹量化及评价[J].水利学报,2016,47(9):1115-1124.]
[12] Ge Liqiang,Xie Gaodi,Li Shimei,et al.A study on production water footprint of winter-wheat and maize in the North China Plain[J].Resources Science,2010,32(11):2066-2071.[盖力强,谢高地,李士美,等.华北平原小麦、 玉米作物生产水足迹的研究[J].资源科学,2010,32(11):2066-2071.]
[13] Cao Xinchun,Wang Mengyang,Shu Rui,et al.Water footprint assessment for crop production based on field measurements:a case study of irrigated paddy rice in East China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,610:84-93.
[14] Sun Shikun,Wang Yubao,Wu Pute,et al.Spatial variability and attribution analysis of water footprint of wheat in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(13):142-148.[孙世坤,王玉宝,吴普特,等.小麦生产水足迹区域差异及归因分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(13):142-148.]
[15] Xu Yanjie,Huang Kai,Yu Yajuan,et al.Changes in water footprint of crop production in Beijing from 1978 to 2012:a logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,87(1):180-187.
[16] Han Yuping,Zhang Jiayu,Dai Xiaoping,et al.Study on factors impacting water footprint of grain production of irrigation area[J].Yellow River,2017,39(2):42-46.[韩宇平,张嘉彧,代小平,等.灌区粮食生产水足迹的影响因素研究[J].人民黄河,2017,39(2):42-46.]
[17] Wei Lingling,Li Wanming.Agricultural water use efficiency and influencing factors in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Xinjiang University (Philosophy,Humanities & Social Science),2014,42(1):7-10.[魏玲玲,李万明.新疆农业用水效率及影响因素分析[J].新疆大学学报(哲学·人文社会科学汉文版),2014,42(1):7-10.]
[18] Wang Jieping,Liu Guoyong,Zhu Meiling.Measurement and influential factors of irrigation water use efficiency in Xinjiang[J].Water Saving Irrigation,2016(1):63-67.[王洁萍,刘国勇,朱美玲.新疆农业水资源利用效率测度及其影响因素分析[J].节水灌溉,2016(1):63-67.]
[19] Xuan Junwei,Zheng Jianghua,Liu Zhihui.Calculation and analysis on water footprint of main crops in Xinjiang[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2014,32(6):195-200.[轩俊伟,郑江华,刘志辉.新疆主要农作物生产水足迹计算分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2014,32(6):195-200.]
[20] Xu Changchun,Chen Yaning,Yang Yuhui,et al.Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(4):599-612.
[21] Li Qihu,Chen Yaning,Shen Yanjun,et al.Spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang,China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2011,21(6):1007-1018.
[22] Hoekstra A Y,Chapagain A K,Aldaya M M,et al.Water footprint manual state of the art 2009[R].Water Footprint Report,2009.
[23] Wu Pute,Sun Shikun,Wang Yubao,et al.Research on the quantification methods for water footprint of crop production[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(6):651-660.[吴普特,孙世坤,王玉宝,等.作物生产水足迹量化方法与评价研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(6) :651-660.]
[24] Guo Xiaoqin,Liu Mingchun,Qian Li,et al.Evolution regularity of precipitation in the Shiyang River basin on Mann-Kendall features[J].Arid Land Geography,2010,33(4):593-599.[郭小芹,刘明春,钱莉,等.从Mann-Kendall特征看石羊河流域降水量的演变规律[J].干旱区地理(汉文版),2010,33(4):593-599.]
[25] Zhang Qinghua,Diao Yanyang,Dong Jie.Regional water demand prediction and analysis based on Cobb-Douglas model[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27(8):3103-3113.
[26] Sun Shikun,Wu Pute,Wang Yubao,et al.The impacts of interannual climate variability and agricultural inputs on water footprint of crop production in an irrigation district of China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,444(2):498.
[27] Wang Mei,Yang Qian,Zheng Jianghua,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of water requirement of cotton in Xinjiang from 1963 to 2012[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2016,36(13):4122-4130.[王梅,杨倩,郑江华,等.1963-2012年新疆棉花需水量时空分布特征[J].生态学报,2016,36(13):4122-4130.]
[28] Ni Guangheng,Li Xinhong,Cong Zhentao,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of reference evapotranspiration in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2006,22(5):1-4.[倪广恒,李新红,丛振涛,等.中国参考作物腾发量时空变化特性分析[J].农业工程学报,2006,22(5):1-4.]
[29] Li Yi,Zhou Mudan.Projections of water requirements of cotton and sugar beet in Xinjiang based on statistical downscaling model[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2014,30(22):70-79.[李毅,周牡丹.新疆地区棉花和甜菜需水量的统计降尺度模型预测[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(22):70-79.]