政府干预下技术风险传播机制与控制决策——基于系统动力学的数理论证与实证仿真
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摘要
当前我国快速发展的现代技术为推动社会进步作出了巨大贡献,但可能存在的技术不足也带来一定的社会风险,并随着企业间技术和产品的输入输出而不断转移,使影响范围越来越大,所以政府就有必要进行干预。将复杂网络上的传染病模型引用到技术风险传播中,构建政府干预下技术风险传播SEIR模型。首先通过数理论证研究模型的平衡点和稳定性,初步得出政府对于技术风险传播的干预机制,然后调查云南省50家科技类企业,并结合系统动力学原理构建STELLA实证仿真模型,分析政府干预对技术风险传播的影响,给出政府风险管控的最优策略。
The rapid development of modern technology in our country has made great contributions to the promotion of social progress, but the possible lack of technology has also brought about certain social risks, and has been continuously transferred with the input and output of technology and products between enterprises, the scope of influence is increasing, so the government needs to intervene. In this paper, the infectious disease model on complex network is introduced into the technology risk communication, and the SEIR model of technology risk communication under government intervention is constructed. First, the equilibrium and stability of the model are studied by mathematical demonstration, and the government intervention mechanism for technology risk transmission is preliminarily obtained; then, 50 science and technology enterprises in Yunnan province are investigated, and the STELLA empirical simulation model is constructed based on the principle of system dynamics to analyze the influence of government intervention on the spread of technological risk, and gives the optimal strategy of government risk control.
The rapid development of modern technology in our country has made great contributions to the promotion of social progress, but the possible lack of technology has also brought about certain social risks, and has been continuously transferred with the input and output of technology and products between enterprises, the scope of influence is increasing, so the government needs to intervene. In this paper, the infectious disease model on complex network is introduced into the technology risk communication, and the SEIR model of technology risk communication under government intervention is constructed. First, the equilibrium and stability of the model are studied by mathematical demonstration, and the government intervention mechanism for technology risk transmission is preliminarily obtained; then, 50 science and technology enterprises in Yunnan province are investigated, and the STELLA empirical simulation model is constructed based on the principle of system dynamics to analyze the influence of government intervention on the spread of technological risk, and gives the optimal strategy of government risk control.
引文
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[15]AL-AZZAWI S F.Stability and bifurcation of pan chaotic system by using Routh–Hurwitz and Gardan methods[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2012,219(3):1144-1152.
[16]沈金荣.“系统动力学”在企业安全管理中应用初探[J].太原机械学院学报, 1987(4):136-144.
[2]HELLAND A. Dealing with uncertainty and pursuing superior technology options in risk management:the inherency risk analysis[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2008,164(2):995-1003.
[3]PICKSHAUS T,KANDT A, HESSE S, et al.Aholistic approach to risk oriented lifecycle engineering:assessing lifecycle risks in early phases[J].Procedia CIRP, 2016,48:265-270.
[4]邢俊文,迟宝山,刘锋.研发项目技术风险度的三参数量化模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2008(10):131-137.
[5]陈明,林桂娟.复杂产品研发技术风险管理研究与应用[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 37(8):1090-1095.
[6]徐哲,吴瑾瑾.武器装备项目技术风险研究现状及展望[J].北京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版), 2008(1):6-9.
[7]郑彦宁,张丽玮.高新技术项目技术风险评估研究(Ⅰ):技术风险模型构建和风险因素分析[J].科技管理研究,2014,34(3):240-246.
[8]李金生,李晏墅.高技术企业原始创新风险传递效应模型研究[J].中国工业经济, 2012(1):110-119.
[9]中国电动车百人会信息部.自动驾驶应同步重视技术发展与立法监管[J].交通建设与管理, 2016(14):66-69.
[10]姚含宇,何岑成.危机中使用社交媒体作为沟通平台的作用:以三星公司Note7手机爆炸危机事件为例[J].经营与管理,2017(3):23-25.
[11]王光辉,刘怡君.基于系统动力学的舆论风险形成及干预策略[J].系统工程, 2014, 32(5):82-91.
[12]XU R,WANG ZH L,ZHANG F Q.Global stability and Hopf bifurcations of an SEIR epidemiological model with logistic growth and time delay[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2015,269(24):332-342.
[13]陈波,于泠,刘君亭,等.泛在媒体环境下的网络舆情传播控制模型[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2011,31(11):2140-2150.
[14]SAMSUZZOHAMD,SINGHM,LUCYD.Uncertaintyand sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of a vaccinated epidemic model of influenza[J].Applied Mathematical Modelling,2013,37(3):903-915.
[15]AL-AZZAWI S F.Stability and bifurcation of pan chaotic system by using Routh–Hurwitz and Gardan methods[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation, 2012,219(3):1144-1152.
[16]沈金荣.“系统动力学”在企业安全管理中应用初探[J].太原机械学院学报, 1987(4):136-144.