天然气区域市场需求弹性差异性分析及价格规制影响研究
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摘要
以大华北地区2000-2012年的天然气消费数据为样本,采用对数线性需求函数模型,分别估算了引入价格规制变量和不引入时的大华北地区需求弹性模型,并分析了价格规制对模型估算结果的影响。考虑到需求弹性的差异性问题,文章选取北京、山东、陕西和甘肃四个地区为研究对象,分别估算得到对应地区需求弹性模型,结合区域市场特点具体分析了产生差异的原因。为探究价格规制对天然气区域市场的影响,由大华北地区需求弹性模型分别估算了考虑价格规制影响和不考虑两种情形时该地区2009-2012年每年的天然气需求函数,同时对大华北地区在继续实行价格规制和放宽规制两种情形下未来的天然气需求进行了预测分析。研究表明:大华北地区天然气需求价格弹性为负、需求曲线向下,缺乏价格弹性,富于GDP弹性,GDP的持续增长是拉动天然气需求的最大动力;不同天然气区域市场,需求价格弹性、GDP弹性、价格规制弹性都存在很大的地区差异性,通常地区经济水平高、用户价格承受力强时,区域市场需求价格弹性较小,GDP弹性较小,价格规制弹性也较小,反之亦然;考虑价格规制时的大华北地区天然气需求曲线较不考虑时陡峭需求价格弹性与GDP弹性均小于不考虑情形,价格规制降低了需求价格弹性,抑制了GDP弹性;价格规制政策拉高了天然气需求,大华北地区未来市场具有支付意愿的天然气需求小于价格规制政策拉高的市场需求,为扩大天然气价格市场化后的需求,地方政府可考虑对地区市场采取一定的价格补贴措施来拉动需求。
With the natural gas consumption data of 2000- 2012 year in Northern China,using the log-linear model and introducing price regulation policy into the model,we had estimated the demand elasticity model of Northern China,and estimated demand elasticity model discounting the price regulation policy at the same time. Taking into account the differences in natural gas demand elasticity,We selected Beijing,Shandong,Shanxi and Gansu four regions for the study,estimated the demand elasticity model of them respectively,and analyzed the causes of differences combining with the characteristics of regional market. To study the influence of price regulation on natural gas market,according to the demand elasticity model we estimated the Northern China's natural gas demand function from 2009 to 2012 in the case that considers the impact of price regulation and does not,and predicting and analyzing the Northern China's future demand for natural gas in the Case of continuing to imposeprice regulation and relaxing regulation. The research showed that the demand elasticity of Northern China is negative,and demand curve downward. It is lack of price elasticity,full of GDP elasticity. The continued growth of GDP is the greatest force driving demand for natural gas. There are big differences in demand price elasticity,GDP elasticity,the elasticity of price regulation for different regional market. Generally,when the regional economies level is high and the users' price bearing capacity is strong,the regional market's demanol price elasticity,GDP elasticity and price regulation clasticity are all smaller,and rice versa. The natural gas demand curve of Northern China considering the price regulation is more steep than not considering,and the demand price elasticlty and GDP elasticity are both less than the case without considering. The price regulation reduces the demand price elasticity,inhibit the elasticity of GDP. The price regulation policy pushed up the demand for natural gas,so in the future nature gas market of Northern China the demand for willingness to pay is less than the demand for price regulation pushed up. In order to expand natural gas demand after the price being market,the local governments could consider taking price subsidies measures to boost the regional markets' demand for nature gas.
With the natural gas consumption data of 2000- 2012 year in Northern China,using the log-linear model and introducing price regulation policy into the model,we had estimated the demand elasticity model of Northern China,and estimated demand elasticity model discounting the price regulation policy at the same time. Taking into account the differences in natural gas demand elasticity,We selected Beijing,Shandong,Shanxi and Gansu four regions for the study,estimated the demand elasticity model of them respectively,and analyzed the causes of differences combining with the characteristics of regional market. To study the influence of price regulation on natural gas market,according to the demand elasticity model we estimated the Northern China's natural gas demand function from 2009 to 2012 in the case that considers the impact of price regulation and does not,and predicting and analyzing the Northern China's future demand for natural gas in the Case of continuing to imposeprice regulation and relaxing regulation. The research showed that the demand elasticity of Northern China is negative,and demand curve downward. It is lack of price elasticity,full of GDP elasticity. The continued growth of GDP is the greatest force driving demand for natural gas. There are big differences in demand price elasticity,GDP elasticity,the elasticity of price regulation for different regional market. Generally,when the regional economies level is high and the users' price bearing capacity is strong,the regional market's demanol price elasticity,GDP elasticity and price regulation clasticity are all smaller,and rice versa. The natural gas demand curve of Northern China considering the price regulation is more steep than not considering,and the demand price elasticlty and GDP elasticity are both less than the case without considering. The price regulation reduces the demand price elasticity,inhibit the elasticity of GDP. The price regulation policy pushed up the demand for natural gas,so in the future nature gas market of Northern China the demand for willingness to pay is less than the demand for price regulation pushed up. In order to expand natural gas demand after the price being market,the local governments could consider taking price subsidies measures to boost the regional markets' demand for nature gas.
引文
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[13]Türkekul B,Unakitan G.A Co-Integration Analysis of the Price and Income Elasticities of Energy Demand in Turkish Agriculture[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(5):2416-2423.
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[17]赵连增.中国天然气价格困局:天然气价格改革思考之一[J].国际石油经济,2011,1(2):98-106.[Zhao Lianzeng.China’s Nature Gas Pricing Dilemma:Reflections on China’s Natural Gas Reform[J].International Petroleum Economics,2011,1(2):98-106.]
[18]赵连增.如何破解中国天然气价格改革困局:天然气价格改革思考之二[J].国际石油经济,2011,3(3):53-60.[Zhao Lianzeng.Solving China’s Natural Gas Price Dilemma:Reflections on China’s Natural Gas Reform(2)[J].International Petroleum Economics,2011,3(3):53-60.]
[19]成金华,陈军.中国城市化进程中的能源消费区域差异:基于面板数据的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(6):38-46.[Cheng Jinhua,Chen Jun.The Regional Differences of Energy Consumption in Chinese Urbanization Process:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data[J].Economic Review,2009,(6):38-46.]
[20]李世祥,成金华,吴巧生.中国水资源利用效率区域差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3):215-220.[Li Shixiang,Cheng Jinhua,Wu Qiaosheng.Regional Difference of the Efficiency of Water Usage in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2008,18(3):215-220.]
[21]Bernstein M,Griffin J.Regional Differences in the Price-elasticity of Demand for Energy[R].Santa Monica,California:National Renewable Energy Laboratory,2006.
[22]Bernstein R,Madlener R.Residential Natural Gas Demand Elasticities in OECD Countries:An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach[R].FCN Working Paper No.15/2011,Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior,RWTH Aachen University,2011,10.
[23]马文军,李孟刚.我国钢铁产业最优集中度的系统性测算:基于企业与产业双重效率目标诉求和2007年数据的实证[J].财经研究,2011,37(3):104-113.[Ma Wenjun,Li Menggang.The Systemic Calculation of Optimal Concentration Degree in China’s Iron and Steel Industry:Empirical Study Based on Double Efficiency Goals Pursued by Firms and Industry and the Data of 2007[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2011,37(3):104-113.]
[24]孙涵,成金华.中国工业化、城市化进程中的能源需求预测与分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7):7-12.[Sun Han,Cheng Jinhua.China Energy Demand Forecast and Analysis in the Process of Industrialization and Urbanization[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(7):7-12.]
[25]曾胜.中国能源消费、经济增长与能源需求预测的研究[J].管理评论,2011,23(2):38-44.[Zeng Sheng.Reserch of Energy Consumption,Economic Grouth and Energy Demand Forecast on China[J].Management Review,2011,23(2):38-44.]
[2]张志柏.中国能源消费的弹性系数:估计与分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,25(7):42-53.[Zhang Zhibo.The Elasticity Coefficients of Chinese Energy Consumption:Estimation and Analysis[J].The Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2008,25(7):42-53.]
[3]聂江洪,曾伟民.在电力市场中引入电力需求弹性的研究[J].电网技术,2008,32(11):84-89.[Nie Jianghong,Zeng Weimin.Research on Introducing Electricity Demand Elasticity into Electricity Market[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(11):84-89.]
[4]裴源生,方玲,罗琳.黄河流域农业需水价格弹性研究[J].资源科学,2003,25(6):25-30.[Pei Yuansheng,Fang Ling,Luo Lin.Price Elasticity of Agricultural Water Demand in China[J].Resources Science,2003,25(6):25-30.]
[5]高波,王斌.中国大中城市房地产需求弹性地区差异的实证分析[J].当代经济科学,2008,30(1):1-7.[Gao Bo,Wang Bin.Empirical Analysis on China Regional Differences in Real Estate Demand Elasticity[J].Modern Economic Science,2008,30(1):1-7.]
[6]冯良,张丹,王晓庆.上海天然气市场需求模型构建与计量分析[J].天然气工业,2009,29(2):120-122.[Feng Liang,Zhang Dan,Wang Xiaoqing.Econometric Analysis and Modeling on Residential Demand of Natural Gas in Shanghai[J].Nature Gas Industry,2009,29(2):120-122.]
[7]Jones C T.A Dynamic Analysis of Interfuel Substitution in U.S.Industrial Energy Demand[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,1995,(13):459-465.
[8]Urga G.An Application of Dynamic Specifications of Factor Demand Equations to Interfuel Substitution in US Industrial Energy Demand[J].Economic Modeling,1999,16(4):503-513.
[9]Urga G,Walters C.Dynamic Translog and Linear Logit Models:A Factor Demand Analysis of Interfuel Substitution in US Industrial Energy Demand[J].Energy Economics,2003,25(1):1-21.
[10]Serletis A,Timilsina G R,Vasetsky O.Interfuel Substitution in the United States[J].Energy Economics,2010,32(3):737-745.
[11]Andersen T B,Nilsen O B,Tveteras R.How is Demand for Nature Gas Determined Across European Industrial Sectors?[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(9):5499-5508.
[12]Dagher L.Nature Gas Demand at the Utility Level:An Application of Dynamic Elasticities[J].Energy Economics,2012,34(4):961-969.
[13]Türkekul B,Unakitan G.A Co-Integration Analysis of the Price and Income Elasticities of Energy Demand in Turkish Agriculture[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(5):2416-2423.
[14]威廉·H·格林.计量经济分析(第6版)[M].张成思,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.[William H.Greene.Econometric Analysis[M].Zhang Chengsi,Translate.Beijing:China Renmin University Press,2011.]
[15]董秀成,佟金辉,李君臣.我国天然气价格改革浅析[J].中外能源,2010,15(7):6-10.[Dong Xiucheng,Tong Jinhui,Li Juncheng.A Brief Analysis of China’s Natural Gas Price Reform[J].Sino-Global Energy,2010,15(7):6-10.]
[16]肖建忠,胡超,王小林,等.中国天然气市场演变及其保障研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(12):143-153.[Xiao Jianzhong,Hu Chao,Wang Xiaolin,et al.Research on the SNAbased Evolution and Security of Nature Gas Market in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(12):143-153.]
[17]赵连增.中国天然气价格困局:天然气价格改革思考之一[J].国际石油经济,2011,1(2):98-106.[Zhao Lianzeng.China’s Nature Gas Pricing Dilemma:Reflections on China’s Natural Gas Reform[J].International Petroleum Economics,2011,1(2):98-106.]
[18]赵连增.如何破解中国天然气价格改革困局:天然气价格改革思考之二[J].国际石油经济,2011,3(3):53-60.[Zhao Lianzeng.Solving China’s Natural Gas Price Dilemma:Reflections on China’s Natural Gas Reform(2)[J].International Petroleum Economics,2011,3(3):53-60.]
[19]成金华,陈军.中国城市化进程中的能源消费区域差异:基于面板数据的实证研究[J].经济评论,2009(6):38-46.[Cheng Jinhua,Chen Jun.The Regional Differences of Energy Consumption in Chinese Urbanization Process:An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data[J].Economic Review,2009,(6):38-46.]
[20]李世祥,成金华,吴巧生.中国水资源利用效率区域差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(3):215-220.[Li Shixiang,Cheng Jinhua,Wu Qiaosheng.Regional Difference of the Efficiency of Water Usage in China[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2008,18(3):215-220.]
[21]Bernstein M,Griffin J.Regional Differences in the Price-elasticity of Demand for Energy[R].Santa Monica,California:National Renewable Energy Laboratory,2006.
[22]Bernstein R,Madlener R.Residential Natural Gas Demand Elasticities in OECD Countries:An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach[R].FCN Working Paper No.15/2011,Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior,RWTH Aachen University,2011,10.
[23]马文军,李孟刚.我国钢铁产业最优集中度的系统性测算:基于企业与产业双重效率目标诉求和2007年数据的实证[J].财经研究,2011,37(3):104-113.[Ma Wenjun,Li Menggang.The Systemic Calculation of Optimal Concentration Degree in China’s Iron and Steel Industry:Empirical Study Based on Double Efficiency Goals Pursued by Firms and Industry and the Data of 2007[J].Journal of Finance and Economics,2011,37(3):104-113.]
[24]孙涵,成金华.中国工业化、城市化进程中的能源需求预测与分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(7):7-12.[Sun Han,Cheng Jinhua.China Energy Demand Forecast and Analysis in the Process of Industrialization and Urbanization[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2011,21(7):7-12.]
[25]曾胜.中国能源消费、经济增长与能源需求预测的研究[J].管理评论,2011,23(2):38-44.[Zeng Sheng.Reserch of Energy Consumption,Economic Grouth and Energy Demand Forecast on China[J].Management Review,2011,23(2):38-44.]