Vulnerability and adaptation of an oasis social–ecological system affected by glacier change in an arid region of northwestern China
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摘要
The Hexi Inland River Basin in an arid region of northwestern China was chosen as the study area for this research. The authors define the vulnerability of an oasis social-ecological system to glacier change; select 16 indicators from natural and socioeconomic systems according to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and construct a vulnerability-assessment indicator system aimed at an inland river basin in the arid region of Northwestern China. Vulnerability of the oasis socialecological system affected by glacier change in the study area is evaluated by Spatial Principal Component Analysis(SPCA) under the circumstance of glacier change. The key factors affecting the vulnerability are analyzed. The vulnerability of the oasis social-ecological system in the Hexi Inland River Basin affected by glacier change is of more than medium grade, accounting for about 48.0% of the total number of counties in the study area. In terms of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability, the oasis economic belt is the most vulnerable. With the rapid development of the area's society and economy, the exposure of the system to glacial changes is significantly increased; and an increase in glacial meltwater is not enough to overcome the impact of increased exposure, which is the main reason for the high vulnerability. Based on the result of the vulnerability analysis and combined with the present industrial structure in the Hexi Inland River Basin, near-,medium-, and long-term adaptation initiatives are put forward in the article.
The Hexi Inland River Basin in an arid region of northwestern China was chosen as the study area for this research. The authors define the vulnerability of an oasis social-ecological system to glacier change; select 16 indicators from natural and socioeconomic systems according to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and construct a vulnerability-assessment indicator system aimed at an inland river basin in the arid region of Northwestern China. Vulnerability of the oasis socialecological system affected by glacier change in the study area is evaluated by Spatial Principal Component Analysis(SPCA) under the circumstance of glacier change. The key factors affecting the vulnerability are analyzed. The vulnerability of the oasis social-ecological system in the Hexi Inland River Basin affected by glacier change is of more than medium grade, accounting for about 48.0% of the total number of counties in the study area. In terms of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability, the oasis economic belt is the most vulnerable. With the rapid development of the area's society and economy, the exposure of the system to glacial changes is significantly increased; and an increase in glacial meltwater is not enough to overcome the impact of increased exposure, which is the main reason for the high vulnerability. Based on the result of the vulnerability analysis and combined with the present industrial structure in the Hexi Inland River Basin, near-,medium-, and long-term adaptation initiatives are put forward in the article.
The Hexi Inland River Basin in an arid region of northwestern China was chosen as the study area for this research. The authors define the vulnerability of an oasis social-ecological system to glacier change; select 16 indicators from natural and socioeconomic systems according to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and construct a vulnerability-assessment indicator system aimed at an inland river basin in the arid region of Northwestern China. Vulnerability of the oasis socialecological system affected by glacier change in the study area is evaluated by Spatial Principal Component Analysis(SPCA) under the circumstance of glacier change. The key factors affecting the vulnerability are analyzed. The vulnerability of the oasis social-ecological system in the Hexi Inland River Basin affected by glacier change is of more than medium grade, accounting for about 48.0% of the total number of counties in the study area. In terms of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability, the oasis economic belt is the most vulnerable. With the rapid development of the area's society and economy, the exposure of the system to glacial changes is significantly increased; and an increase in glacial meltwater is not enough to overcome the impact of increased exposure, which is the main reason for the high vulnerability. Based on the result of the vulnerability analysis and combined with the present industrial structure in the Hexi Inland River Basin, near-,medium-, and long-term adaptation initiatives are put forward in the article.
引文
Allison EA,2015.The spiritual significance of glaciers in an age of climate change.WIREs Climate Change,6(5):493-508.DOI:10.1002/wcc.354.
Bavay M,Grünewald T,Lehning M,2013.Response of snow cover and runoff to climate change in high Alpine catchments of Eastern Switzerland.Advances in Water Resources,55:4-16.DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.12.009.
Beniston M,2012.Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps.Journal of Hydrology,412-413:291-296.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.046.
Beniston M,Stoffel M,2014.Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.Science of the Total Environment,493:1129-1137.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.122.
Boelens R,2014.Cultural politics and the hydrosocial cycle:Water,power and identity in the Andean highlands.Geoforum,57:234-247.DOI:10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.02.008.
Braun LN,Weber M,Schulz M,2000.Consequences of climate change for runoff from Alpine regions.Annals of Glaciology,31:19-25.DOI:10.3189/172756400781820165.
Carey M,Baraer M,Mark BG,et al.,2014.Toward hydro-social modeling:Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models(Santa River,Peru).Journal of Hydrology,518:60-70.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.006.
Carey M,Molden OC,Rasmussen MB,et al.,2017.Impacts of glacier recession and declining meltwater on mountain societies.Annals of the American Association of Geographers,107(2):350-359.DOI:10.1080/24694452.2016.1243039.
Chen RS,Zhang SQ,Yang Y,et al.,2018.Impacts of Cryosphere Change on Runoff in the Cold Region of West China.Beijing:Science Press.(in press)
Ding YJ,Xiao CD,2013.Challenges in the study of cryospheric changes and their impacts.Advances in Earth Science,28(10):1067-1076.DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.10.1067.
Ding YJ,Yang JP,2018.Study on Vulnerability and Adaptability of China's Cryosphere Change.Beijing:Science Press.(in press)
French A,Barandiaran J,Rampini C,2015.Contextualizing conflict:Vital waters and competing values in glaciated environments.In:Huggel C,Carey M,Clague JJ,et al.(eds.).The High-Mountain Cryosphere:Environmental Changes and Human Risks.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Gao X,2010.Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff in western China.Beijing:A Master Dissertation of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Gao X,Zhang SQ,Ye BS,et al.,2011.Recent changes of glacier runoff in the Hexi Inland river basin.Advances in Water Science,22(3):344-350.
Gardner AS,Moholdt G,Cogley JG,et al.,2013.A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise:2003 to 2009.Science,340(6134):852-857.DOI:10.1126/science.1234532.
Huss M,2011.Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe.Water Resources Research,47(7):W07511.DOI:10.1029/2010WR010299.
Immerzeel WW,van Beek LPH,Bierkens MFP,2010.Climate change will affect the Asian water towers.Science,328(5984):1382-1385.DOI:10.1126/science.1183188.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),2014.Climate change 2014:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Part A:Global and sectoral aspects.Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.New York:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC,2001.Climate change 2001:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Contribution of Working GroupⅡto the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Jansson P,Hock R,Schneider T,2003.The concept of glacier storage:a review.Journal of Hydrology,282(1-4):116-129.DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00258-0.
Jia WX,He YQ,Li ZX,et al.,2008.The regional difference and catastrophe of climatic change in Qilian Mt.region.Acta Geographica Sinica,63(3):257-269.DOI:10.11821/xb200803004.
Kaser G,Gro?hauser M,Marzeion B,2010.Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,107(47):20223-20227.DOI:10.1073/pnas.1008162107.
Konchar KM,Staver B,Salick J,et al.,2015.Adapting in the shadow of Annapurna:A climate tipping point.Journal of Ethnobiology,35(3):449-471.DOI:10.2993/0278-0771-35.3.449.
Lan YC,Ding YJ,Shen YP,et al.,2003.Responding of river streamflow to the climate shift in the Hexi inland region.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,25(2):188-192.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2003.02.013.
Lin S,Li HY,Dang B,et al.,2014.The latest evidences of a warm-wet climatic shift in Hexi Corridor,Gansu.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,36(5):1111-1121.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0133.
Liu SY,Shen YP,Sun WX,et al.,2002.Glacier variation since the Maximum of the Little Ice Age in the western Qilian Mountains,Northwest China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,24(3):227-233.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2002.03.002.
Meng M,Ni J,Zhang ZG,2004.Aridity index and its applications in geo-ecological study.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,28(6):853-861.
Nolin AW,Phillippe J,Jefferson A,et al.,2010.Present-day and future contributions of glacier runoff to summertime flows in a Pacific Northwest watershed:Implications for water resources.Water Resources Research,46(12):W12509.DOI:10.1029/2009WR008968.
Paerregaard K,2013.Bare rocks and fallen angels:Environmental change,climate perceptions and ritual practice in the Peruvian Andes.Religions,4(2):290-305.DOI:10.3390/rel4020290.
Qin DH,Ding YJ,2009.Cryospheric changes and their impacts:Present,trends and key issues.Advances in Climate Change Research,5(4):187-195.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2009.04.001.
Qin DH,Ding YJ,Xiao CD,et al.,2018.Cryospheric science:research framework and disciplinary system.National Science Review,5(2):255-268.DOI:10.1093/nsr/nwx108.
Radi?V,Hock R,2014.Glaciers in the earth's hydrological cycle:Assessments of glacier mass and runoff changes on global and regional scales.Surveys in Geophysics,35(3):813-837.DOI:10.1007/s10712-013-9262-y.
Terrier S,Jordan F,Schleiss A,et al.,2011.Optimized and adapted hydropower management considering glacier shrinkage scenarios in the Swiss Alps.In:Schleiss A,Boes RM(eds.).Dams and Reservoirs under Changing Challenges.New York:CRC Press,Taylor&Francis Group.
Vergara W,Deeb A,Valencia AM,et al.,2007.Economic impacts of rapid glacier retreat in the Andes.EOS,Transactions American Geophysical Union,88(25):261-264.DOI:10.1029/2007EO250001.
Wang NL,Liu SY,Wu QB,et al.,2015.Recent progress in the study of the change of cryosphere in the Northern Hemisphere and its impacts on climate and environment.China Basic Science,17(2):9-14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-2412.2015.02.002.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Gao WY,et al.,2011.Glacier changes in the Heihe river basin over the past 50 years in the context of climate change.Resources Science,33(3):399-407.
Wang SJ,Qin DH,Xiao CD,2015.Moraine-dammed lake distribution and outburst flood risk in the Chinese Himalaya.Journal of Glaciology,61(225):115-126.DOI:10.3189/2015JoG14J097.
Wang SJ,Wang ZF,2017.Integrated risk assessment and management of glacial lake outburst flood disasters:A case study of the Himalayas in China:Beijing:China Social Sciences Press.
Wang YP,Huang Y,Zhang W,2008.Variation and tendency of surface aridity index from 1960 to 2005 in three provinces of Northeast China.Advances in Earth Science,23(6):619-627.DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2008.06.009.
Yang CL,Lan YC,Wang NL,et al.,2017.Mountainous runoff changes and climate factors analysis of the Shule river basin in1958-2015.Scientia Geographica Sinica,37(12):1894-1899.DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.013.
Yang JP,Zhang TJ,2010.An overview of cryospheric vulnerability and its assessment methods in China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,32(6):1084-1096.
Yang JP,Ding YJ,Fang YP,et al.,2015a.Research frame of vulnerability and adaptation for the cryosphere and its changes.Advances in Earth Science,30(5):517-529.DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.05.517.
Yang JP,Ding YJ,Liu SY,et al.,2015b.Vulnerability of mountain glaciers in China to climate change.Advances in Climate Change Research,6(3-4):171-180.DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2015.11.003.
Yang ZN,1991.Glacier Water Resources in China.Lanzhou:Gansu Science and Technology Press.
Zhang JT,He XJ,Shangguan DH,et al.,2012.Impact of intensive glacier ablation on arid regions of Northwest China and its countermeasure.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,34(4):848-854.
Bavay M,Grünewald T,Lehning M,2013.Response of snow cover and runoff to climate change in high Alpine catchments of Eastern Switzerland.Advances in Water Resources,55:4-16.DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.12.009.
Beniston M,2012.Impacts of climatic change on water and associated economic activities in the Swiss Alps.Journal of Hydrology,412-413:291-296.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.046.
Beniston M,Stoffel M,2014.Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.Science of the Total Environment,493:1129-1137.DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.11.122.
Boelens R,2014.Cultural politics and the hydrosocial cycle:Water,power and identity in the Andean highlands.Geoforum,57:234-247.DOI:10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.02.008.
Braun LN,Weber M,Schulz M,2000.Consequences of climate change for runoff from Alpine regions.Annals of Glaciology,31:19-25.DOI:10.3189/172756400781820165.
Carey M,Baraer M,Mark BG,et al.,2014.Toward hydro-social modeling:Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models(Santa River,Peru).Journal of Hydrology,518:60-70.DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.006.
Carey M,Molden OC,Rasmussen MB,et al.,2017.Impacts of glacier recession and declining meltwater on mountain societies.Annals of the American Association of Geographers,107(2):350-359.DOI:10.1080/24694452.2016.1243039.
Chen RS,Zhang SQ,Yang Y,et al.,2018.Impacts of Cryosphere Change on Runoff in the Cold Region of West China.Beijing:Science Press.(in press)
Ding YJ,Xiao CD,2013.Challenges in the study of cryospheric changes and their impacts.Advances in Earth Science,28(10):1067-1076.DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.10.1067.
Ding YJ,Yang JP,2018.Study on Vulnerability and Adaptability of China's Cryosphere Change.Beijing:Science Press.(in press)
French A,Barandiaran J,Rampini C,2015.Contextualizing conflict:Vital waters and competing values in glaciated environments.In:Huggel C,Carey M,Clague JJ,et al.(eds.).The High-Mountain Cryosphere:Environmental Changes and Human Risks.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
Gao X,2010.Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff in western China.Beijing:A Master Dissertation of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Gao X,Zhang SQ,Ye BS,et al.,2011.Recent changes of glacier runoff in the Hexi Inland river basin.Advances in Water Science,22(3):344-350.
Gardner AS,Moholdt G,Cogley JG,et al.,2013.A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise:2003 to 2009.Science,340(6134):852-857.DOI:10.1126/science.1234532.
Huss M,2011.Present and future contribution of glacier storage change to runoff from macroscale drainage basins in Europe.Water Resources Research,47(7):W07511.DOI:10.1029/2010WR010299.
Immerzeel WW,van Beek LPH,Bierkens MFP,2010.Climate change will affect the Asian water towers.Science,328(5984):1382-1385.DOI:10.1126/science.1183188.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),2014.Climate change 2014:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Part A:Global and sectoral aspects.Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change.New York:Cambridge University Press.
IPCC,2001.Climate change 2001:Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Contribution of Working GroupⅡto the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Jansson P,Hock R,Schneider T,2003.The concept of glacier storage:a review.Journal of Hydrology,282(1-4):116-129.DOI:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00258-0.
Jia WX,He YQ,Li ZX,et al.,2008.The regional difference and catastrophe of climatic change in Qilian Mt.region.Acta Geographica Sinica,63(3):257-269.DOI:10.11821/xb200803004.
Kaser G,Gro?hauser M,Marzeion B,2010.Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,107(47):20223-20227.DOI:10.1073/pnas.1008162107.
Konchar KM,Staver B,Salick J,et al.,2015.Adapting in the shadow of Annapurna:A climate tipping point.Journal of Ethnobiology,35(3):449-471.DOI:10.2993/0278-0771-35.3.449.
Lan YC,Ding YJ,Shen YP,et al.,2003.Responding of river streamflow to the climate shift in the Hexi inland region.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,25(2):188-192.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2003.02.013.
Lin S,Li HY,Dang B,et al.,2014.The latest evidences of a warm-wet climatic shift in Hexi Corridor,Gansu.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,36(5):1111-1121.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2014.0133.
Liu SY,Shen YP,Sun WX,et al.,2002.Glacier variation since the Maximum of the Little Ice Age in the western Qilian Mountains,Northwest China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,24(3):227-233.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0240.2002.03.002.
Meng M,Ni J,Zhang ZG,2004.Aridity index and its applications in geo-ecological study.Acta Phytoecologica Sinica,28(6):853-861.
Nolin AW,Phillippe J,Jefferson A,et al.,2010.Present-day and future contributions of glacier runoff to summertime flows in a Pacific Northwest watershed:Implications for water resources.Water Resources Research,46(12):W12509.DOI:10.1029/2009WR008968.
Paerregaard K,2013.Bare rocks and fallen angels:Environmental change,climate perceptions and ritual practice in the Peruvian Andes.Religions,4(2):290-305.DOI:10.3390/rel4020290.
Qin DH,Ding YJ,2009.Cryospheric changes and their impacts:Present,trends and key issues.Advances in Climate Change Research,5(4):187-195.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2009.04.001.
Qin DH,Ding YJ,Xiao CD,et al.,2018.Cryospheric science:research framework and disciplinary system.National Science Review,5(2):255-268.DOI:10.1093/nsr/nwx108.
Radi?V,Hock R,2014.Glaciers in the earth's hydrological cycle:Assessments of glacier mass and runoff changes on global and regional scales.Surveys in Geophysics,35(3):813-837.DOI:10.1007/s10712-013-9262-y.
Terrier S,Jordan F,Schleiss A,et al.,2011.Optimized and adapted hydropower management considering glacier shrinkage scenarios in the Swiss Alps.In:Schleiss A,Boes RM(eds.).Dams and Reservoirs under Changing Challenges.New York:CRC Press,Taylor&Francis Group.
Vergara W,Deeb A,Valencia AM,et al.,2007.Economic impacts of rapid glacier retreat in the Andes.EOS,Transactions American Geophysical Union,88(25):261-264.DOI:10.1029/2007EO250001.
Wang NL,Liu SY,Wu QB,et al.,2015.Recent progress in the study of the change of cryosphere in the Northern Hemisphere and its impacts on climate and environment.China Basic Science,17(2):9-14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-2412.2015.02.002.
Wang PY,Li ZQ,Gao WY,et al.,2011.Glacier changes in the Heihe river basin over the past 50 years in the context of climate change.Resources Science,33(3):399-407.
Wang SJ,Qin DH,Xiao CD,2015.Moraine-dammed lake distribution and outburst flood risk in the Chinese Himalaya.Journal of Glaciology,61(225):115-126.DOI:10.3189/2015JoG14J097.
Wang SJ,Wang ZF,2017.Integrated risk assessment and management of glacial lake outburst flood disasters:A case study of the Himalayas in China:Beijing:China Social Sciences Press.
Wang YP,Huang Y,Zhang W,2008.Variation and tendency of surface aridity index from 1960 to 2005 in three provinces of Northeast China.Advances in Earth Science,23(6):619-627.DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2008.06.009.
Yang CL,Lan YC,Wang NL,et al.,2017.Mountainous runoff changes and climate factors analysis of the Shule river basin in1958-2015.Scientia Geographica Sinica,37(12):1894-1899.DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.12.013.
Yang JP,Zhang TJ,2010.An overview of cryospheric vulnerability and its assessment methods in China.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,32(6):1084-1096.
Yang JP,Ding YJ,Fang YP,et al.,2015a.Research frame of vulnerability and adaptation for the cryosphere and its changes.Advances in Earth Science,30(5):517-529.DOI:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.05.517.
Yang JP,Ding YJ,Liu SY,et al.,2015b.Vulnerability of mountain glaciers in China to climate change.Advances in Climate Change Research,6(3-4):171-180.DOI:10.1016/j.accre.2015.11.003.
Yang ZN,1991.Glacier Water Resources in China.Lanzhou:Gansu Science and Technology Press.
Zhang JT,He XJ,Shangguan DH,et al.,2012.Impact of intensive glacier ablation on arid regions of Northwest China and its countermeasure.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,34(4):848-854.