油气秩序重构 行业整体回暖——2018年国内外油气行业发展概述与2019年展望
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摘要
2018年,布伦特原油期货均价达71.69美元/桶,与上年相比上涨31.0%,带动油气行业整体回暖;美国成为世界第一大油气生产国,全球油气秩序重构博弈进入新阶段;全球能源转型主要仍依靠化石能源清洁低碳发展。中国油气对外依存度持续攀升,超过日本成为世界最大天然气进口国;原油产量下降势头得到有效遏制,估计年产1.89亿吨,与上年相比下降1%;炼油能力结构性过剩趋重,总炼能增至8.3亿吨/年;油气行业改革深入推进,民营油气企业迅速崛起,外资进入力度明显加大。预计2019年布伦特原油均价降至60～65美元/桶,国际石油市场更为动荡;美俄天然气出口竞争加剧,LNG现货市场快速增长使得天然气市场全球化进程加快;美国与减产联盟博弈、中美贸易摩擦等将进一步促使国际油气秩序重构。中国油气对外依存度将继续上升;三大公司将继续发力勘探开发,原油产量有望重上1.9亿吨;地方民营大型炼化项目相继投产;油气行业及国企各项改革将进一步落实。
In 2018, Brent crude futures averaged $71.69 per barrel, up 31.0% from the previous year, leading to a recovery in the oil and gas industry. The United States became to the world's largest oil and gas producer, and the game of global oil and gas order reconstruction entered a new stage. The global energy transformation still relies mainly on clean and low-carbon development of traditional fossil energy. China's dependence on foreign oil and gas continues to climb, overtaking Japan as the world's largest importer of natural gas. The decline in crude oil production was effectively curbed with an estimated annual output of 189 million tons, down 1% from the previous year. Structural excess in refining capacity increased with total refining capacity of 830 million tons/year. The reform of oil and gas industry was deepened, private oil and gas enterprises rose rapidly, and foreign investment significantly increased. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to fall to $60 ～ $65 per barrel in 2019 and the international oil market will be more volatile. Natural gas export competition between the United States and Russia will intensify and the rapid growth of LNG spot market will accelerate the globalization of natural gas market. The game between the United States and the alliance of cut production, as well as the trade frictions between China and the United States will further promote the reconstruction of international oil and gas industry order. China's oil and gas external dependence will continue to rise; the three companies will continue to explore and develop, and crude oil production is expected to reach 190 million tons. Local private large-scale refinery projects will put into operation one by one and the reform of the oil & gas industry and state-owned enterprises will be further implemented.
In 2018, Brent crude futures averaged $71.69 per barrel, up 31.0% from the previous year, leading to a recovery in the oil and gas industry. The United States became to the world's largest oil and gas producer, and the game of global oil and gas order reconstruction entered a new stage. The global energy transformation still relies mainly on clean and low-carbon development of traditional fossil energy. China's dependence on foreign oil and gas continues to climb, overtaking Japan as the world's largest importer of natural gas. The decline in crude oil production was effectively curbed with an estimated annual output of 189 million tons, down 1% from the previous year. Structural excess in refining capacity increased with total refining capacity of 830 million tons/year. The reform of oil and gas industry was deepened, private oil and gas enterprises rose rapidly, and foreign investment significantly increased. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to fall to $60 ～ $65 per barrel in 2019 and the international oil market will be more volatile. Natural gas export competition between the United States and Russia will intensify and the rapid growth of LNG spot market will accelerate the globalization of natural gas market. The game between the United States and the alliance of cut production, as well as the trade frictions between China and the United States will further promote the reconstruction of international oil and gas industry order. China's oil and gas external dependence will continue to rise; the three companies will continue to explore and develop, and crude oil production is expected to reach 190 million tons. Local private large-scale refinery projects will put into operation one by one and the reform of the oil & gas industry and state-owned enterprises will be further implemented.
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