页岩气开发的经济效益与影响因素分析
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摘要
对于页岩气开发经济效益的质疑是影响页岩气投资热情和产业发展的重要因素之一。本文根据页岩气单井产量变化规律,建立了一套页岩气开发经济效益分析的方法,并应用这套方法,对目前我国页岩气开发成本和合理天然气价格之下,典型页岩气盆地页岩气开发的经济效益进行了分析。研究得到,美国典型页岩气盆地页岩气开发在我国目前的成本和经济气价条件下具有一定的经济效益,而压力系数和储层条件是影响页岩气开发效益的两个重要因素,两个因素在一定程度上具有互补作用。除此之外,页岩气开发可以通过进一步的技术发展和快速达到规模化生产的方法,降低开发成本和操作成本,增加开发经济效益。
The doubt about the economics of shale gas exploitation is one of the most important factors that affect the investors' enthusiasm and industrialization development.So we develop a set of method to evaluate the economics of shale gas exploitation in consideration of the production characteristics of a single shale gas well.Then influence factors that affect the economics of shale gas exploitation were analyzed under the China's present cost and nature gas price.The results show that there are some economics produced by American typical shale gas exploitation,and the pressure coefficient and the reservoir conditions are the two important factors that influence the exploitation economics,and in some extent the two factors can alternative.Besides we can reduce the developing cost and the operation cost to increase the economic efficiency by improving exploitation technology and realizing scale development quickly.
The doubt about the economics of shale gas exploitation is one of the most important factors that affect the investors' enthusiasm and industrialization development.So we develop a set of method to evaluate the economics of shale gas exploitation in consideration of the production characteristics of a single shale gas well.Then influence factors that affect the economics of shale gas exploitation were analyzed under the China's present cost and nature gas price.The results show that there are some economics produced by American typical shale gas exploitation,and the pressure coefficient and the reservoir conditions are the two important factors that influence the exploitation economics,and in some extent the two factors can alternative.Besides we can reduce the developing cost and the operation cost to increase the economic efficiency by improving exploitation technology and realizing scale development quickly.
引文
[1]国家能源局.能源发展“十二五”规划[R].2013.
[2]王兰生,廖仕孟,陈更生,等.中国页岩气勘探开发面临的问题与对策[J].天然气工业,2011,31(12):119-122.
[3]高世葵,朱文丽,殷诚.页岩气资源的经济性分析——以Marcellus页岩气区带为例[J].天然气工业,2014,34(6):141-148.
[4]陈广仁,周俊一,阮长悦,等.页岩气单井陈本效益浅析[J].城市燃气,2013,465(33):32-37.
[5]Jason B,Raphael A,Raj M,Fang L,Schlumberger.Shale gas production Decline Trend Comparison over time and basins[J].SPE 135555,pretend at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in Florence,Italy,19-22September 2010:1-24.
[6]白玉湖,杨皓,陈桂华,等.页岩气产量递减典型曲线中关键参数的确定方法[J].特种油气藏,2013,20(2):65-68.
[7]骆长娥.油田操作成本变化规律与分配方法研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2012.
[8]朱彬彬.我国天然气不同供应源的可持续价格分析[J].化学工业,2014,32(8):6-8.
[9]财政部,国家能源局.关于出台页岩气开发利用补贴政策的通知[R].2012.
[10]张定宇.中国页岩气产业发展对策建议[J].国际石油经,2012(11):64-68,110.
[11]朱彤,曹艳,张快.美国典型页岩气藏类型及勘探开发启示[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(6):718-724.
[12]胡东风,张汉荣,倪楷等.四川盆地东南缘海相页岩气保存条件及其主控因素[J].天然气工业,2014,34(6):17-23.
[13]郭旭升.南方海相页岩气“二元富集”规律——四川盆地及周缘龙马溪组页岩气勘探实践认识[J].地质学报,2014,88(7):1209-1218.
[14]财新网.中石化涪陵页岩气田进入商业开发[EB/OL].(2014-03-24).http://companies.caixin.com/2014-03-24/100655929.html.
[15]俞祖德,宋朝霞.灰色模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用[J].石油化工技术经济,2003,19(6):50-53.
[16]孙旭光,张兆新,白鹤仙等.灰色理论在克拉玛依油田操作成本预测中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2005,26(6):704-706.
[2]王兰生,廖仕孟,陈更生,等.中国页岩气勘探开发面临的问题与对策[J].天然气工业,2011,31(12):119-122.
[3]高世葵,朱文丽,殷诚.页岩气资源的经济性分析——以Marcellus页岩气区带为例[J].天然气工业,2014,34(6):141-148.
[4]陈广仁,周俊一,阮长悦,等.页岩气单井陈本效益浅析[J].城市燃气,2013,465(33):32-37.
[5]Jason B,Raphael A,Raj M,Fang L,Schlumberger.Shale gas production Decline Trend Comparison over time and basins[J].SPE 135555,pretend at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition held in Florence,Italy,19-22September 2010:1-24.
[6]白玉湖,杨皓,陈桂华,等.页岩气产量递减典型曲线中关键参数的确定方法[J].特种油气藏,2013,20(2):65-68.
[7]骆长娥.油田操作成本变化规律与分配方法研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2012.
[8]朱彬彬.我国天然气不同供应源的可持续价格分析[J].化学工业,2014,32(8):6-8.
[9]财政部,国家能源局.关于出台页岩气开发利用补贴政策的通知[R].2012.
[10]张定宇.中国页岩气产业发展对策建议[J].国际石油经,2012(11):64-68,110.
[11]朱彤,曹艳,张快.美国典型页岩气藏类型及勘探开发启示[J].石油实验地质,2014,36(6):718-724.
[12]胡东风,张汉荣,倪楷等.四川盆地东南缘海相页岩气保存条件及其主控因素[J].天然气工业,2014,34(6):17-23.
[13]郭旭升.南方海相页岩气“二元富集”规律——四川盆地及周缘龙马溪组页岩气勘探实践认识[J].地质学报,2014,88(7):1209-1218.
[14]财新网.中石化涪陵页岩气田进入商业开发[EB/OL].(2014-03-24).http://companies.caixin.com/2014-03-24/100655929.html.
[15]俞祖德,宋朝霞.灰色模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用[J].石油化工技术经济,2003,19(6):50-53.
[16]孙旭光,张兆新,白鹤仙等.灰色理论在克拉玛依油田操作成本预测中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2005,26(6):704-706.