基于多元线性回归分析的操作成本预测模型建立与应用
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摘要
油气操作成本高低不仅影响着油田公司的利润,更是油田公司发展壮大的一个制约因素,因此操作成本的预测对油田公司实现有效的成本控制起着关键作用。为了准确预测油田采油单位的操作成本,将操作成本与开发生产和财务中的多项指标因素直接联系起来,采用多元线性回归分析中的逐个剔除法、最优子集法和主成分回归法等三种方法分别对操作成本进行预测,得到三个预测模型。再对三个预测模型进行优选,得到更符合油田采油单位实际情况的操作成本预测模型,并应用于油田操作成本的分配,其结果客观合理。
Operation cost of oil and gas affacts the profit of oilfield company, and is the constraints to the development of oilfield company. Therefore, the operation cost prediction plays a key role in the effective cost control of oilfield company. In order to accurately forecast the operation cost of oil production unit in oil field, the elimination regression method, the best subset regression method and the principal composition regression method are respectively used to predict the operation cost and the three prediction models are established. Finally, the best prediction model which conforms to the actual situation of oil production unit in the oilfield is selected to the allocation of oilfield operation cost, and the result is objective and reasonable.
Operation cost of oil and gas affacts the profit of oilfield company, and is the constraints to the development of oilfield company. Therefore, the operation cost prediction plays a key role in the effective cost control of oilfield company. In order to accurately forecast the operation cost of oil production unit in oil field, the elimination regression method, the best subset regression method and the principal composition regression method are respectively used to predict the operation cost and the three prediction models are established. Finally, the best prediction model which conforms to the actual situation of oil production unit in the oilfield is selected to the allocation of oilfield operation cost, and the result is objective and reasonable.
引文
[1]孙旭光,张兆新,白鹤仙,等.灰色理论在克拉玛依油田操作成本预测中的应用[J].新疆石油地质,2005,26(6):704-706.
[2]张光华,钟水清,唐洪俊,等.灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用[J].钻采工艺,2006,29(5):126-128.
[3]陈武,钟水清,唐洪俊,等.油气操作成本预测方法研究[J].钻采工艺,2006,29(5):73-76.
[4]李丰,张晓辉,曲德斌,等.基于主成分回归模型的水驱油田操作成本预测[J].石油天然气学报,2012,34(9):136-139.
[5]李萍,张伟,王晓芸,等.逐个剔除法在单位操作成本预测中的应用[J].化工管理,2016(2):65.
[2]张光华,钟水清,唐洪俊,等.灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用[J].钻采工艺,2006,29(5):126-128.
[3]陈武,钟水清,唐洪俊,等.油气操作成本预测方法研究[J].钻采工艺,2006,29(5):73-76.
[4]李丰,张晓辉,曲德斌,等.基于主成分回归模型的水驱油田操作成本预测[J].石油天然气学报,2012,34(9):136-139.
[5]李萍,张伟,王晓芸,等.逐个剔除法在单位操作成本预测中的应用[J].化工管理,2016(2):65.