基于信息熵的长江下游地区人居生态系统发展演化
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摘要
基于对人居生态系统结构复杂性的分析,结合耗散结构理论以及熵变理论,构建了长江下游地区人居生态系统演化评价指标体系;运用年份信息熵和指标信息熵两个模型分别对人居生态系统的演化方向以及健康协调程度进行了评价;最后运用灰关联模型对评价指标和城市综合、协调发展度间的关联性进行了分析,结合熵权大小识别出研究区未来发展的制约性因子,并对今后人居生态系统的发展提出建议。结果显示:在2005—2015年,长江下游五省人居生态系统熵流、熵产生和总熵变均呈波动下降趋势,人居生态系统有序度不断提高,总体朝健康态势发展;系统综合发展度先下降再上升,向着健康有序的方向发展。而协调发展度则是先上升再下降,由环境滞后型向经济滞后型转化;研究区今后重点治理方向有增加地方财政收入、开发新能源、调整消费结构、治理城市污水以及工业废气、加大环保投资比例等。本研究方法能反映出研究区人居生态系统的演化方向及趋势,并能针对性地提出增强系统可持续发展能力的针对性措施。
Based on the analysis of human habitat ecosystem structure,the indicator system of evaluating sustainable development ability of human habitat ecosystem was set up through dissipative structure theory and entropy change theory.The year-based information entropy model and index-based information entropy model were applied to evaluate the evolution direction and health coordination of human habitat ecosystem.The correlation degree between index and aggregative indicator was analyzed by grey correlation degree.The results show that:from 2005 to 2015,the input-output entropy,metabolism entropy production and total entropy of the human habitat ecosystem in the lower Yangtze region presented the wavelike decrease change,the order degree kept improving.The comprehensive development degree of the lower Yangtze region went down at first and then went up,the whole state was getting better.The coordinated development degree went up at first,and then went down,and transformed from environmental lag type to economic lag type.In the future,the research area will focus on increasing local fiscal revenue,developing new energy sources,adjusting consumption structure,controlling urban sewage and industrial waste gas,and increasing the proportion of investment in environmental protection.This research method can reflect the evolution direction and trend of human habitat ecosystem and propose targeted measures to enhance the sustainable development ability of the system.
Based on the analysis of human habitat ecosystem structure,the indicator system of evaluating sustainable development ability of human habitat ecosystem was set up through dissipative structure theory and entropy change theory.The year-based information entropy model and index-based information entropy model were applied to evaluate the evolution direction and health coordination of human habitat ecosystem.The correlation degree between index and aggregative indicator was analyzed by grey correlation degree.The results show that:from 2005 to 2015,the input-output entropy,metabolism entropy production and total entropy of the human habitat ecosystem in the lower Yangtze region presented the wavelike decrease change,the order degree kept improving.The comprehensive development degree of the lower Yangtze region went down at first and then went up,the whole state was getting better.The coordinated development degree went up at first,and then went down,and transformed from environmental lag type to economic lag type.In the future,the research area will focus on increasing local fiscal revenue,developing new energy sources,adjusting consumption structure,controlling urban sewage and industrial waste gas,and increasing the proportion of investment in environmental protection.This research method can reflect the evolution direction and trend of human habitat ecosystem and propose targeted measures to enhance the sustainable development ability of the system.
引文
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[3]尹晓波.城市生态系统可持续发展评价研究[J].工业技术经济,2006,25(1):58-60.
[4] Wang P,Deng X Z,Zhou H M,et al.Responses of urban ecosystem health to precipitation extreme:A case study in Beijing and Tianjin[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,177:124-133.
[5]吴宜进,廖乐,袁绪英.基于信息熵的武汉市城市生态系统演化分析研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(1):21-26.
[6]王龙,徐刚,刘敏.基于信息熵和GM(1,1)的上海市城市生态系统演化分析与灰色预测[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(6):2262-2271.
[7]李婧昕,杨立,杨蕾,等.基于熵理论的城市生态系统服务流定量评估:以北京市为例[J].应用生态学报,2018,29(3):987-996.
[8]李涵,戴文婷.基于耗散结构理论的资源型城市转型发展分析:以徐州市为例[J].中国矿业,2017,26(2):27-32,50.
[9]王珞珈,董晓峰,刘星光,等.基于信息熵的兰州城市生态系统可持续发展能力演化分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2016,52(6):764-770.
[10] Lin Z M,Xia B.Sustainability analysis of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou City based on information entropy between 2004and 2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(3):417-435.
[11]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系:以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,19(2):171-177.
[12]田兵,冉雪琴,薛红,等.贵州42种野生牧草营养价值灰色关联度分析[J].草业学报,2014,23(1):92-103.
[13]陈骥,邹树梁,唐德文,等.基于灰色关联度的集对分析方法在高层建筑火灾危险性评价中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(5):136-141.
[14]国务院.长江三角洲城市群发展规划[Z].国务院常务会议,2016-05-11.