模糊层次综合分析法在农业水价综合改革实施效果评价中的应用
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摘要
随着农业水价综合改革力度的不断加强和试点范围的不断扩张,系统合理地评价农业水价改革项目的实施效果,可为继续推进和深化农业水价改革提供参考依据和指导。以山东省某市农业水价综合改革试点项目为背景,基于野外调研和观测数据,利用模糊层次综合分析法对农业水价综合改革实施效果进行综合评价。从节水、经济、社会和生态四个层面,建立了由15项二级指标组成的农业水价改革项目效果评价体系;构造了模糊层次分析模型,模型采用三标度法建立优先判断矩阵,运用和行归一法确定评价指标的权重向量;并利用模糊逻辑理论模型对评价指标和结果进行定量化分级。评价结果表明:该市农业水价综合改革实施效果评价等级为较好,其中节水效果和经济效果评价等级为较好,社会和生态环境效果评价等级为一般。结果发现模型是合理可行的,能够全面系统的反映改革试点市的问题和不足,针对评价等级较低的指标和改革工作中存在的实际问题,还应加大资金投入、配套计量设施以及提高农民节水意识等方面的研究和投入。
With the continuous strengthening of the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price and the continuous expansion of the pilot scope, a systematic and reasonable evaluation of the implementation effect of agricultural water price reform project can provide reference basis and guidance for the further promotion and deepening of agricultural water price reform. Based on the field investigation and observation data, this paper evaluates the effect of the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP). From the aspects of water saving, economy, society and ecology, the effect evaluation system of agricultural water price reform project composed of 15 secondary indexes was established. The fuzzy hierarchy analysis model is constructed, which uses the three-scale method to establish the priority judgment matrix, and uses the row normalization method to determine the weight vector of the evaluation index. The fuzzy logic model is used to classify the evaluation index and result. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price in this city has a good evaluation grade, among which the evaluation grade of water-saving effect and economic effect is good, and the evaluation grade of social and ecological environment effect is general. The results show that the model is reasonable and feasible, and can comprehensively and systematically reflect the problems and deficiencies of the pilot cities of the reform. In view of the low evaluation index and the actual problems in the reform work, it is necessary to strengthen the research and investment in capital investment, supporting measurement facilities and improving farmers' water-saving awareness.
With the continuous strengthening of the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price and the continuous expansion of the pilot scope, a systematic and reasonable evaluation of the implementation effect of agricultural water price reform project can provide reference basis and guidance for the further promotion and deepening of agricultural water price reform. Based on the field investigation and observation data, this paper evaluates the effect of the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP). From the aspects of water saving, economy, society and ecology, the effect evaluation system of agricultural water price reform project composed of 15 secondary indexes was established. The fuzzy hierarchy analysis model is constructed, which uses the three-scale method to establish the priority judgment matrix, and uses the row normalization method to determine the weight vector of the evaluation index. The fuzzy logic model is used to classify the evaluation index and result. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive reform of agricultural water price in this city has a good evaluation grade, among which the evaluation grade of water-saving effect and economic effect is good, and the evaluation grade of social and ecological environment effect is general. The results show that the model is reasonable and feasible, and can comprehensively and systematically reflect the problems and deficiencies of the pilot cities of the reform. In view of the low evaluation index and the actual problems in the reform work, it is necessary to strengthen the research and investment in capital investment, supporting measurement facilities and improving farmers' water-saving awareness.
引文
[1] 韩一军, 李雪, 付文阁. 麦农采用农业节水技术的影响分析—基于北方干旱缺水地区的调查[J]. 南京农业大学学报(社会科学版), 2015,15(4):62-69.
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[10] 年自力, 郭正友, 雷波,等. 农业用水户的水费承受能力及其对农业水价改革的态度——来自云南和新疆灌区的实地调研[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2009,(9):158-162.
[11] 李宝萍. 基于模糊综合评价模型的水价计算[J]. 水力发电, 2008,34(8):88-90.
[12] 陈菁, 李建国. 张建,等. 农业水价综合改革项目实施效果评价模型构建及应用[J]. 三峡大学学报(自然科学版), 2016,38(5):2-6.
[13] 吴春生, 刘高焕, 刘庆生,等. 基于模糊层次分析法的黄河三角洲生态脆弱性评价[J]. 生态学报, 2018,38(13):5-9.
[14] 黎靖. 农业水价满意度评价模型及其应用[J]. 南水北调及水利科技, 2015,13(4):794-796.
[15] 王海亮, 杨永红, 张颖. 基于模糊层次分析法的水资源承载力研究[J]. 水科学与工程技术, 2014(3):16-19.
[16] 李婷, 郑垂勇. 农业水价改革绩效的熵权模糊综合评价[J]. 水利经济, 2015(3):32-36.
[17] 毛春梅. 农业水价改革与节水效果的关系分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2005(4):2-4.
[18] 张振华, 吕淑英, 蔡风娥. 禹城市农业水价综合改革实践与效果分析[J]. 中国水利, 2017(6):42-43.
[19] 李永. 改进的模糊层次分析法[J]. 西北大学学报(自然科学版), 2005,2(1):11-12.
[20] 康颖,薛联青.改进的模糊层次分析法在综合水价确定中的应用[J]. 节水灌溉, 2008(1):38-40.
[21] 李乃成, 梅立泉. 数值分析[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2010.
[22] 刘合香. 模糊数学理论及其应用[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2012.
[23] 杨金奎. 地下水超采综合治理试点区农业水价改革[J]. 农技服务, 2016,33(5):207-212.
[24] 徐朗, 陈燕. 农业水价综合改革现状、问题及对策——以安徽六安市农业水价综合改革试点为例[J]. 节水灌溉, 2016,(5):89-90.
[25] 黎延海. 模糊层次分析法的Matlab实现[J]. 自然科学, 2009(17):38-39.
[26] 刘思妤, 倪红珍, 郑春玲,等. 宁夏引黄灌区农业水价改革现状分析及思考[J]. 节水灌溉, 2006(9):161-162.
[27] 孙天合, 严婷婷, 罗琳. 农业水价改革现状及其展望[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2017(12):136-139.
[2] 张维康, 曾扬一, 傅新红,等. 心理参照点、支付意愿与灌溉价格—以四川省20县区567户农民为例[J]. 资源科学, 2014,36(10):2 020-2 028.
[3] 许朗, 刘金金. 农户节水灌溉技术选择行为的影响因素分析—基于山东省蒙阴县的调查数据[J]. 中国农村观察, 2013,(6):45-51.
[4] Rogers P, Silva R D, Bhatia R. Water is an economic good: How to use prices to promote equity, efficiency, and sustainability [J]. Water Policy, 2002,4(1):1-17.
[5] Mahmoud Abu Zeid. Water Pricing in Irrigated Agriculture [J]. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2001,17(4):527-538.
[6] Ohab-Yazdi S A, Ahmadi, A. Design and Evaluation of Irrigation Water Pricing Policies for Enhanced Water Use Efficiency [J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, 2015,142(3):0 501-5 011.
[7] Sumpsi J, Amador F, Romero C. On farmers' objectives: A multi-criteria approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997,96(1):64-71.
[8] Ramirez R R, Seeliger L, Pietro F D. Price, Virtues, Principles: How to Discern What Inspires Best Practices in Water Management? A Case Study about Small Farmers in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico [J]. Sustainability, 2016,8(4):1-16.
[9] 田圃德, 张春玲.我国农业用水水价分析[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2003,31(3):342-346.
[10] 年自力, 郭正友, 雷波,等. 农业用水户的水费承受能力及其对农业水价改革的态度——来自云南和新疆灌区的实地调研[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2009,(9):158-162.
[11] 李宝萍. 基于模糊综合评价模型的水价计算[J]. 水力发电, 2008,34(8):88-90.
[12] 陈菁, 李建国. 张建,等. 农业水价综合改革项目实施效果评价模型构建及应用[J]. 三峡大学学报(自然科学版), 2016,38(5):2-6.
[13] 吴春生, 刘高焕, 刘庆生,等. 基于模糊层次分析法的黄河三角洲生态脆弱性评价[J]. 生态学报, 2018,38(13):5-9.
[14] 黎靖. 农业水价满意度评价模型及其应用[J]. 南水北调及水利科技, 2015,13(4):794-796.
[15] 王海亮, 杨永红, 张颖. 基于模糊层次分析法的水资源承载力研究[J]. 水科学与工程技术, 2014(3):16-19.
[16] 李婷, 郑垂勇. 农业水价改革绩效的熵权模糊综合评价[J]. 水利经济, 2015(3):32-36.
[17] 毛春梅. 农业水价改革与节水效果的关系分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2005(4):2-4.
[18] 张振华, 吕淑英, 蔡风娥. 禹城市农业水价综合改革实践与效果分析[J]. 中国水利, 2017(6):42-43.
[19] 李永. 改进的模糊层次分析法[J]. 西北大学学报(自然科学版), 2005,2(1):11-12.
[20] 康颖,薛联青.改进的模糊层次分析法在综合水价确定中的应用[J]. 节水灌溉, 2008(1):38-40.
[21] 李乃成, 梅立泉. 数值分析[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2010.
[22] 刘合香. 模糊数学理论及其应用[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2012.
[23] 杨金奎. 地下水超采综合治理试点区农业水价改革[J]. 农技服务, 2016,33(5):207-212.
[24] 徐朗, 陈燕. 农业水价综合改革现状、问题及对策——以安徽六安市农业水价综合改革试点为例[J]. 节水灌溉, 2016,(5):89-90.
[25] 黎延海. 模糊层次分析法的Matlab实现[J]. 自然科学, 2009(17):38-39.
[26] 刘思妤, 倪红珍, 郑春玲,等. 宁夏引黄灌区农业水价改革现状分析及思考[J]. 节水灌溉, 2006(9):161-162.
[27] 孙天合, 严婷婷, 罗琳. 农业水价改革现状及其展望[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2017(12):136-139.