局地水汽异常引起的非绝热加热对2016/2017年中国南方暖冬的影响
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摘要
基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,利用气温异常的倾向方程分析2016/2017年中国华北地区(100～115°E,35～45°N)、西南地区(85～102°E,22～33°N)和南方地区(108～118°E,22～33°N)的暖冬事件。结果表明西南和华北地区的平流作用占主导地位,而2016/2017年冬季中国南方暖冬主要是非绝热加热引起的。进一步通过水汽收支平衡的分析表明,局地水汽异常对2016/2017年中国南方暖冬有重要贡献,而其中土壤的水汽贡献约占50%。可能的机制如下:大气中正的水汽异常引起辐射加热增多,导致气温升高,土壤的感热增大,土壤温度升高,潜热通量变大,从而向大气的水汽输送增多,更多的水汽将导致更高的温度。
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to analyze a warm winter in 2016/2017 in three regions of China, i.e., North(100～115 °E, 35～45 °N), Southwest(85～102 °E, 22～33 °N) and South(108～118 °E,22～33 °N), by analyzing the equation of air temperature budget. The results indicate that in the 2016/2017 warm winter event advection plays a main role over the north and southwest of China, but diabatic heating dominates over the south of China. Further analysis of moisture budget suggests that diabatic-heating-induced regional water vapor anomalies, about half of which come from soil, give great contribution to the 2016/2017 warm winter event over the south of China. A possible positive feedback mechanism is: positive water vapor anomalies increase radiation heat to warm the air, and then downward sensible heat flux increases soil temperature; as a result, larger upward latent heat flux leads to more water vapor, and then another cycle repeats.
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to analyze a warm winter in 2016/2017 in three regions of China, i.e., North(100～115 °E, 35～45 °N), Southwest(85～102 °E, 22～33 °N) and South(108～118 °E,22～33 °N), by analyzing the equation of air temperature budget. The results indicate that in the 2016/2017 warm winter event advection plays a main role over the north and southwest of China, but diabatic heating dominates over the south of China. Further analysis of moisture budget suggests that diabatic-heating-induced regional water vapor anomalies, about half of which come from soil, give great contribution to the 2016/2017 warm winter event over the south of China. A possible positive feedback mechanism is: positive water vapor anomalies increase radiation heat to warm the air, and then downward sensible heat flux increases soil temperature; as a result, larger upward latent heat flux leads to more water vapor, and then another cycle repeats.
引文
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[27]何金海,武丰民,祁莉.秋季北极海冰与欧亚冬季气温在年代际和年际尺度上的不同联系[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(4):1 089-1 102.
[28] ZUO J Q, REN H L, LI W, et al. Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and temperature in South Central China[J]. J Climate, 2016, 29(20):7 477-7 493.
[29]许琪,管兆勇.海洋性大陆核心区域非绝热加热年代际变化及其与东亚夏季风变异的可能联系[J].热带气象学报, 2017, 33(1):21-29.
[30]刘佳伟,徐海明.冬季西太平洋和海洋性大陆热源变化特征及其影响[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(5):645-656.
[31]秦大河.全球变化热门话题丛书/李爱贞,刘厚凤,张桂芹.气候系统变化与人类活动[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:234.
[32] KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KISTLER R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1996, 77(3):437-472.
[33] HUFFMAN G J, ADLER R F, MORRISSEY M M, et al. Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations[J]. J Hydrometeor, 2001, 2(1):36-50
[34] YU L, WELLER R A. Objectively Analyzed air-sea heat Fluxes(OAFlux)for the global oceans[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2007, 88:527-539.
[35]郑彬,林爱兰,谷德军,等. 2016年南海夏季风结束监测报告[R]. 2016,中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所.
[2]陈峪,任国玉,王凌,等.近56年我国暖冬气候事件变化[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):539-545.
[3]孙林海,赵振国.我国暖冬气候及其成因分析[J].气象,2004,30(12):57-60.
[4]王东阡,崔童,司东,等. 2014/2015年东亚冬季风活动特征及其可能成因分析[J].气象,2015,41(7):907-914.
[5]丁婷,王永光,柯宗建,等. 2016/2017年冬季北半球大气环流及对我国冬季气温的影响[J].气象,2017,43(7):887-893.
[6]李崇银.中国东部地区的暖冬与厄尼诺[J].科学通报,1989,30(4):283-286.
[7]伍红雨,杨崧.华南冬季气温异常与大气环流和海温的关系[J].热带气象学报,2014,30(6):1 061-1 068.
[8]陈受钧.厄尼诺与东亚暖冬的数值模拟[J].气象学报,1995,53(3):380-384.
[9]伍红雨,潘蔚娟,王婷.华南冬季气温异常与ENSO的关系[J].气象,2014,40(10):1 230-1 239.
[10]王会军. 2002年亚洲北部的超强暖冬事件及其超常大气环流[J].科学通报,2003,48(7):734-736.
[11]王会军,贺圣平.ENSO和东亚冬季风之关系在20世纪70年代中期之后的减弱[J].科学通报,2012,57(19):1 713-1 718.
[12]韩文韬,卫捷,沈新勇.近50年中国冬季气温对ENSO响应的时空稳定性分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(1):97-106.
[13]简云韬,简茂球,杨崧.前、后冬的东亚冬季风的年际变异及其与东亚降水的关系[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(4):519-529.
[14]陈海山,孙照渤,闵锦忠.欧亚大陆冬季积雪异常与东亚冬季风及中国冬季气温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(4):609-615.
[15] CLARK M P, SERREZE M C. Effects of variations in East Asian snow cover on modulating atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific Ocean[J]. J Climate, 2000, 13(20):3 700-3 710.
[16]所玲玲,黄嘉佑,谭本馗.北极涛动对我国冬季同期极端气温的影响研究[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(2):163-168.
[17]沈柏竹,廉毅,张世轩,等.北极涛动、极涡活动异常对北半球欧亚大陆冬季气温的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(6):434-439.
[18]雷杨娜,孙娴,乐章燕.中国东部地区冬季气温与北极涛动的关系[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(4):42-48.
[19]康丽华,陈文,王林,等.我国冬季气温的年际变化及其与大气环流和海温异常的关系[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(1):45-53.
[20] WU B Y,HUANG R H,GAO D Y. Effects of variation of winter sea-ice area in Kara and Barents seas on East Asian winter monsoon[J].Acta Meteor Sin, 1999, 13(2):141-153.
[21] WU B Y,SU J Z,ZHANG R H. Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High[J]. Chin Sci Bull, 2011, 56(30):3 220-3 228.
[22]解小寒,杨修群.冬季北极海冰面积异常与中国气温变化之间的年际关系[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),2006,42(6):549-561.
[23] YANG L N, WU B Y. Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter surface air temperature and possible causes[J]. Chin Sci Bull, 2013,58(32):3 969-3 977.
[24]谢永坤,刘玉芝,黄建平.秋季北极海冰对中国冬季气温的影响[J].气象学报,2014,72(4):703-710.
[25] ZUO J Q, REN H L, WU B, et al. Predictability of winter temperature in China from previous autumn Arctic sea ice[J]. Clim Dyn, 2016,47(7):2 331-2 343.
[26]李维京,李怡,陈丽娟,等.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(4):385-396.
[27]何金海,武丰民,祁莉.秋季北极海冰与欧亚冬季气温在年代际和年际尺度上的不同联系[J].地球物理学报,2015,58(4):1 089-1 102.
[28] ZUO J Q, REN H L, LI W, et al. Interdecadal variations in the relationship between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and temperature in South Central China[J]. J Climate, 2016, 29(20):7 477-7 493.
[29]许琪,管兆勇.海洋性大陆核心区域非绝热加热年代际变化及其与东亚夏季风变异的可能联系[J].热带气象学报, 2017, 33(1):21-29.
[30]刘佳伟,徐海明.冬季西太平洋和海洋性大陆热源变化特征及其影响[J].热带气象学报,2018,34(5):645-656.
[31]秦大河.全球变化热门话题丛书/李爱贞,刘厚凤,张桂芹.气候系统变化与人类活动[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:234.
[32] KALNAY E, KANAMITSU M, KISTLER R, et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1996, 77(3):437-472.
[33] HUFFMAN G J, ADLER R F, MORRISSEY M M, et al. Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multisatellite observations[J]. J Hydrometeor, 2001, 2(1):36-50
[34] YU L, WELLER R A. Objectively Analyzed air-sea heat Fluxes(OAFlux)for the global oceans[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 2007, 88:527-539.
[35]郑彬,林爱兰,谷德军,等. 2016年南海夏季风结束监测报告[R]. 2016,中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所.