化工园区储罐多米诺效应的脆弱性评估
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摘要
为减少化工园储罐区多米诺效应发生概率,找出最容易发生多米诺效应、且对事故影响最大的储罐,评估各储罐的脆弱性等级。首先基于不同领域脆弱性的内涵和多米诺效应的特点,提出多米诺效应情况下储罐脆弱性的定义;然后利用熵权物元可拓模型和风险矩阵法的客观性,并结合复杂网络模型和逼近理想排序法(TOPSIS)模型评估事故网络节点重要度,从初始事故的可能性与传播影响力2个方面,构建多米诺效应下储罐脆弱性分级评估模型;最后应用该模型评估某化工园储罐区各罐体脆弱性等级,并将结果与贝叶斯方法的评估结果对比。结果表明:该模型考虑了储罐自身属性及影响扩展范围,得到的脆弱性分级结果更准确。
In order to reduce the probability of domino effect in the chemical tank area,the vulnerability of each storage tank is evaluated to protect the tank that has a maximum accident probability of domino effect and the greatest impact on accidents. First,the definition of vulnerability of storage tanks under domino effect was proposed based on the connotation of vulnerability in different fields and the characteristics of domino effect. Second,by using the objectivity of entropy weight matter element extension model and risk matrix method in combination with the importance of complex network model and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution( TOPSIS) in evaluating the accident network node,a model for vulnerability grade evaluation of tanks under domino effect was constructed from the possibility of initial accident and the influence of propagation. Finally,the model was used to evaluate the vulnerability level of each tank in a chemical industry park,and the results were compared with that of the Bayesian method. The results show that this model takes the attributes of tanks and the scope of impact into consideration and proves to be more accurate with its vulnerability grading results.
In order to reduce the probability of domino effect in the chemical tank area,the vulnerability of each storage tank is evaluated to protect the tank that has a maximum accident probability of domino effect and the greatest impact on accidents. First,the definition of vulnerability of storage tanks under domino effect was proposed based on the connotation of vulnerability in different fields and the characteristics of domino effect. Second,by using the objectivity of entropy weight matter element extension model and risk matrix method in combination with the importance of complex network model and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution( TOPSIS) in evaluating the accident network node,a model for vulnerability grade evaluation of tanks under domino effect was constructed from the possibility of initial accident and the influence of propagation. Finally,the model was used to evaluate the vulnerability level of each tank in a chemical industry park,and the results were compared with that of the Bayesian method. The results show that this model takes the attributes of tanks and the scope of impact into consideration and proves to be more accurate with its vulnerability grading results.
引文
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[13]陈刘瑜,李希建,尹鑫,等.复杂网络理论下燃气管网节点重要性分析方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(9):74-80.CHEN Liuyu,LI Xijian,YIN Xin,et al.Complex network theory based analysis of importance of urban gas pipeline network nodes[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(9):74-80.
[14]KADRI F,CHATELET E,CHEN Guangpu.Method for quantitative assessment of the domino effect in industrial sites[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(6):452-462.
[2]KOURNIOTIS S P,KIRANOUDIS C T,MARKATOS N C.Statistical analysis of domino chemical accidents[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71:239-252.
[3]COZZANI V,GUBINELLI G,ANTONIONI G,et al.The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2005,127(1/2/3):14-30.
[4]ZHANG Xinmei,CHEN Guohua.Modeling and algorithm of domino effect in chemical industrial parks using discrete isolated island method[J].Safety Science,2011,49(3):463-467.
[5]JIA Meisheng,CHEN Guohua,RENIERS G.Equipment vulnerability assessment(EVA)and pre-control of domino effects using a five-level hierarchical framework(FLHF)[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2017,48(7):260-269.
[6]BOGARD W.Bringing social theory to hazards research:conditions and consequences of the mitigation of environmental hazards[J].Sociological Perspectives,1988,31(2):147-168.
[7]李鹤,张平宇,程叶青.脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25.LI He,ZHANG Pingyu,CHENG Yeqing.The concept and evaluation method of vulnerability[J].Progress in Geography,2008,27(2):18-25.
[8]ISO Guide 73:2009,Risk management:vocabulary[S].
[9]HEMMATIAN B,ABDOLHAMIDZADEH B.The significance of domino effect in chemical accidents[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2014,29(1):30-38.
[10]GEEL P.Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment[M].Holland:Committee for the Prevention of Disasters,2005:42-220.
[11]佟瑞鹏,杜志托,杨校毅.石化行业人员不安全行为影响因素实证分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(3):34-39.TONG Ruipeng,DU Zhituo,YANG Xiaoyi.Empirical analysis of factors influencing unsafe behavior of petrochemical industry employees[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(3):34-39.
[12]KHAKZAD N,RENIERS G,ABBASSI R,et al.Vulnerability analysis of process plants subject to domino effects[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2016,154:127-136.
[13]陈刘瑜,李希建,尹鑫,等.复杂网络理论下燃气管网节点重要性分析方法[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(9):74-80.CHEN Liuyu,LI Xijian,YIN Xin,et al.Complex network theory based analysis of importance of urban gas pipeline network nodes[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(9):74-80.
[14]KADRI F,CHATELET E,CHEN Guangpu.Method for quantitative assessment of the domino effect in industrial sites[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(6):452-462.