特朗普对华心理探析——基于信念体系操作码的解读
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摘要
特朗普是新任美国总统,他对中国的态度反复变化,令人捉摸不定。操作码是测量领导人政治认知的重要手段,可以帮助我们了解领导人对于政治基本问题的看法。通过对特朗普的操作码分析,发现他具有合作倾向、高转变倾向、投机倾向和易受他人影响等特点。总体而言,特朗普是一个不稳定的合作者。基于其信念体系和中美现实状况,本文认为特朗普对华心理认知是合作者大于竞争者,并预测合作与互利是中美发展的未来趋向,同时"不确定性"是中国需要谨慎对待的方面。
Donald Trump is the newly-elected US President, and his attitude towards China is inconstant and unpredictable. Operational code is an important tool for measuring political cognition of leaders, which can help us understand the leaders' views on basic political issues. Mr Trump's operational codes show that he has the tendency of cooperation, high transition, propensity for speculation and vulnerability to others. In general, he is an unstable collaborator. Based on the belief system and the current relationship between China and the United States, this article considers that in Trump's psychological cognition, China is more of a collaborator than a competitor. Based on this judgment, cooperation and mutual benefit is the future trend of the development of China-US relations, while "uncertainty" is an aspect that China needs to be cautious about.
Donald Trump is the newly-elected US President, and his attitude towards China is inconstant and unpredictable. Operational code is an important tool for measuring political cognition of leaders, which can help us understand the leaders' views on basic political issues. Mr Trump's operational codes show that he has the tendency of cooperation, high transition, propensity for speculation and vulnerability to others. In general, he is an unstable collaborator. Based on the belief system and the current relationship between China and the United States, this article considers that in Trump's psychological cognition, China is more of a collaborator than a competitor. Based on this judgment, cooperation and mutual benefit is the future trend of the development of China-US relations, while "uncertainty" is an aspect that China needs to be cautious about.
引文
[1]特朗普亚洲行令西方失落,美媒:美国软实力的整个崩塌[EB/OL]. http://news.163.com/17/1115/07/D392936Q000187V9.html,2017-11-15-[2018年5月15日].
[2]张昆鹏.特朗普“美国优先”政策的深层动因及对华影响[J].和平与发展,2017,(6):45-60.
[3]王栋,孙冰岩.特朗普的对华政策前瞻[J].现代国际关系,2016,(12):15-23.
[4]吴心伯.特朗普执政与中美关系走向[J].国际问题研究,2017,(2):15-29.
[5]陈积敏.美国对华战略认知的演变与中美关系[J].外交评论,2011,(4):131-142.
[6]达巍.美国对华战略逻辑的演进与“特朗普冲击”[J].世界经济与政治,2017,(5):21-39.
[7]尹继武,郑建君,李宏洲.特朗普的政治人格特质及其政策偏好分析[J].现代国际关系,2017,(2):15-22.
[8]王一鸣,时殷弘.特朗普行为的根源———人格特质与对外政策偏好[J].外交评论,2018,(1):98-127.
[9]George,L.Alexander.The Operational Code:A Neglected Appraoch to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making.International Studies Quarterly,1969,13(2):196-222.
[10] He,Kai and Huiyun Feng.Transcending Rationalism and Constructivism:Chinese Leaders’ Operational codes,Socialization Processes,and Multilateralism after the Cold War.European Political Science Review,2014,7(3):401-426.
[11]季乃礼.领导心理学[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2015:183.
[12]Feng,Huiyun.The Operational Code of Mao Zedong:Defensive or Offensive Realist? Security Studies,2005,14(4):637-662.
[13]尹继武,郑建君,李宏洲.特朗普的政治人格特质及其政策偏好分析[J].现代国际关系,2017,(2):15-22.
[14] Walker,G. Stephen, Mark Schafer and Michael D. Young. Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis:Measuring and Modeling Jimmy Carter’s Operational Code.International Studies Quarterly,1998,42(1):175-190.
[15]刘丰.类型化方法与国际关系研究设计[J].世界经济与政治,2017,(8):44-63.
[16]习近平第五次致电特朗普,美“小动作”不断遭郑重警告[EB/OL]. http://military.china.com/important/11132797/20170705/30913702_all.html,2017-07-05[2018年4月29日].
[17]魻zdamar,魻zgür and Sercan Canbolat.Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership:An Operational Code Approach.Political Research Quarterly,2018,71(1):1-13.
[18] Walker,G. Stephen.The Evolution of Operational Code Analysis.Political Psychology,1990,11(2):403-418.
[19] Walker,G. Stephen.Psychodynamic Processes and Framing Effects in Foreign Policy Decision-Making:Woodrow Wilson's Operational Code.Political Psychology,1995,16(4):697-717.
[20] Walker,G.Stephen.and Mark Schafer.Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson as Cultural Icons of U.S. Foreign Policy.Political Psychology,2007,28(6):747-776.
[21]美成“孤家寡人”G7其他六国确认落实巴黎协定[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2017-06-13/doc-ifyfzaaq6241304.shtml,2017-06-13[2018年4月30日].
[22][美]唐纳德·特朗普,托尼·施瓦茨.特朗普自传:从商人到参选总统[M].尹瑞珉译.北京:中国青年出版社,2016:40.
[23]美国庆日朝鲜发射洲际导弹,特朗普怒发推特[EB/OL]. http://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1572037588823627&wfr=spider&for=pc.2017-07-05日[2017年7月10日].
[24]特朗普.我们正派出无敌舰队,金正恩在做错事[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2017-04-13/doc-ifyeifqx5508472.shtml,2017-04-13[2017年4月19日].
[25]美媒:特朗普的国家安全战略报告忽略了特朗普[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2017-12-20/doc-ifypwzxq4252925.shtml.2017-12-20[2018年2月1日].
[26]习近平与特朗普通话:望各方避免加剧朝鲜半岛局势紧张[EB/OL]. http://news.qq.com/a/20170424/028395.htm?_t_t_t=0.9807740363758057,2017-04-24[2017年4月30日].
[27]王文峰.美国对华战略共识与特朗普政府对华政策[J].当代美国评论,2017,(2):2-20.
[28]达巍.美国对华战略逻辑的演进与“特朗普冲击”[J].世界经济与政治,2017,(5):21-39.
[29]王浩.特朗普政府对华“挂钩”政策探析[J].当代亚太,2017,(4):65-85.
[30]陈小茹.三大因素助长特朗普政府对华强硬[N].中国青年报,2018-01-24(3).
[31]特朗普提名美副贸易代表,美媒:对华鹰派再添一人[EB/OL]. http://news.ifeng.com/a/20170713/51422695_0.shtml,2017-07-13[2018年5月15日].
[32]习近平同特朗普开始举行中美元首会晤[EB/OL]. http://china.cnr.cn/gdgg/20170407/t20170407_523696802.shtml.2017-04-07[2018年5月2日].
[33]美媒:特朗普政府正加大参与“一带一路”倡议的力度[EB/OL]. https://news.sina.cn/gn/2017-05-14/detail-ifyfecvz1283629.d.html,2017-05-14[2018年5月2日].
[34]王浩.特朗普政府对华“挂钩”政策探析[J].当代亚太,2017,(4):65-85.
(1)图为笔者根据Kai He and Huiyun Feng,“Xi Jinping’s Operational Code Beliefs and China’s Foreign Policy,”The Chinese Journal of International Politics,Vol.6,No.3,2013,pp.209-231.一文绘制而成。
[2]张昆鹏.特朗普“美国优先”政策的深层动因及对华影响[J].和平与发展,2017,(6):45-60.
[3]王栋,孙冰岩.特朗普的对华政策前瞻[J].现代国际关系,2016,(12):15-23.
[4]吴心伯.特朗普执政与中美关系走向[J].国际问题研究,2017,(2):15-29.
[5]陈积敏.美国对华战略认知的演变与中美关系[J].外交评论,2011,(4):131-142.
[6]达巍.美国对华战略逻辑的演进与“特朗普冲击”[J].世界经济与政治,2017,(5):21-39.
[7]尹继武,郑建君,李宏洲.特朗普的政治人格特质及其政策偏好分析[J].现代国际关系,2017,(2):15-22.
[8]王一鸣,时殷弘.特朗普行为的根源———人格特质与对外政策偏好[J].外交评论,2018,(1):98-127.
[9]George,L.Alexander.The Operational Code:A Neglected Appraoch to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making.International Studies Quarterly,1969,13(2):196-222.
[10] He,Kai and Huiyun Feng.Transcending Rationalism and Constructivism:Chinese Leaders’ Operational codes,Socialization Processes,and Multilateralism after the Cold War.European Political Science Review,2014,7(3):401-426.
[11]季乃礼.领导心理学[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2015:183.
[12]Feng,Huiyun.The Operational Code of Mao Zedong:Defensive or Offensive Realist? Security Studies,2005,14(4):637-662.
[13]尹继武,郑建君,李宏洲.特朗普的政治人格特质及其政策偏好分析[J].现代国际关系,2017,(2):15-22.
[14] Walker,G. Stephen, Mark Schafer and Michael D. Young. Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis:Measuring and Modeling Jimmy Carter’s Operational Code.International Studies Quarterly,1998,42(1):175-190.
[15]刘丰.类型化方法与国际关系研究设计[J].世界经济与政治,2017,(8):44-63.
[16]习近平第五次致电特朗普,美“小动作”不断遭郑重警告[EB/OL]. http://military.china.com/important/11132797/20170705/30913702_all.html,2017-07-05[2018年4月29日].
[17]魻zdamar,魻zgür and Sercan Canbolat.Understanding New Middle Eastern Leadership:An Operational Code Approach.Political Research Quarterly,2018,71(1):1-13.
[18] Walker,G. Stephen.The Evolution of Operational Code Analysis.Political Psychology,1990,11(2):403-418.
[19] Walker,G. Stephen.Psychodynamic Processes and Framing Effects in Foreign Policy Decision-Making:Woodrow Wilson's Operational Code.Political Psychology,1995,16(4):697-717.
[20] Walker,G.Stephen.and Mark Schafer.Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson as Cultural Icons of U.S. Foreign Policy.Political Psychology,2007,28(6):747-776.
[21]美成“孤家寡人”G7其他六国确认落实巴黎协定[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2017-06-13/doc-ifyfzaaq6241304.shtml,2017-06-13[2018年4月30日].
[22][美]唐纳德·特朗普,托尼·施瓦茨.特朗普自传:从商人到参选总统[M].尹瑞珉译.北京:中国青年出版社,2016:40.
[23]美国庆日朝鲜发射洲际导弹,特朗普怒发推特[EB/OL]. http://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1572037588823627&wfr=spider&for=pc.2017-07-05日[2017年7月10日].
[24]特朗普.我们正派出无敌舰队,金正恩在做错事[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/o/2017-04-13/doc-ifyeifqx5508472.shtml,2017-04-13[2017年4月19日].
[25]美媒:特朗普的国家安全战略报告忽略了特朗普[EB/OL]. http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2017-12-20/doc-ifypwzxq4252925.shtml.2017-12-20[2018年2月1日].
[26]习近平与特朗普通话:望各方避免加剧朝鲜半岛局势紧张[EB/OL]. http://news.qq.com/a/20170424/028395.htm?_t_t_t=0.9807740363758057,2017-04-24[2017年4月30日].
[27]王文峰.美国对华战略共识与特朗普政府对华政策[J].当代美国评论,2017,(2):2-20.
[28]达巍.美国对华战略逻辑的演进与“特朗普冲击”[J].世界经济与政治,2017,(5):21-39.
[29]王浩.特朗普政府对华“挂钩”政策探析[J].当代亚太,2017,(4):65-85.
[30]陈小茹.三大因素助长特朗普政府对华强硬[N].中国青年报,2018-01-24(3).
[31]特朗普提名美副贸易代表,美媒:对华鹰派再添一人[EB/OL]. http://news.ifeng.com/a/20170713/51422695_0.shtml,2017-07-13[2018年5月15日].
[32]习近平同特朗普开始举行中美元首会晤[EB/OL]. http://china.cnr.cn/gdgg/20170407/t20170407_523696802.shtml.2017-04-07[2018年5月2日].
[33]美媒:特朗普政府正加大参与“一带一路”倡议的力度[EB/OL]. https://news.sina.cn/gn/2017-05-14/detail-ifyfecvz1283629.d.html,2017-05-14[2018年5月2日].
[34]王浩.特朗普政府对华“挂钩”政策探析[J].当代亚太,2017,(4):65-85.
(1)图为笔者根据Kai He and Huiyun Feng,“Xi Jinping’s Operational Code Beliefs and China’s Foreign Policy,”The Chinese Journal of International Politics,Vol.6,No.3,2013,pp.209-231.一文绘制而成。