敦煌莫高窟保护区洪水预测预防研究
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摘要
敦煌莫高窟保护区所在区域气候极为干旱,但受到早年多次洪水影响,致使洞窟潮湿、壁画霉变、酥碱,对国家重点文物保护造成极大威胁,因此通过窟前大泉河洪水预测的研究,分析和预测不同降水条件下的莫高窟库前洪水流量,进一步合理制定洪水防范措施和风险预警体系,对保障莫高窟文物安全具有重要的实际意义。通过对莫高窟保护区实地考察和流域特征分析,选择短缺流量资料地区比较适宜的瞬时单位线法,分别测算出大泉河野马山、一百四戈壁和三危山50 a,100 a,500 a一遇的洪水流量,以此为基预测2种不同降雨情形下的洪水流量。(1)当降雨从上段野马山区开始,依次向中段、下段移动时,50 a,100 a,500 a一遇降水流经大泉河莫高窟前断面的洪水流量分别为230,463,757 m3/s;(2)当全流域同时降雨时,50 a,100 a,500 a一遇降水流经大泉河莫高窟前断面的洪水流量分别为230,330和510 m3/s.并通过实际发生的2次百年一遇的洪水的洪峰流量和气象条件与测算数值进行比对,印证预测结果可信。同时,为了提高莫高窟抵御洪水风险的能力,确保莫高窟文物安全,防患于未然,进一步提出了建立健全流域降水和洪水监测体系、开展大泉河防护性工程建设、降雨洪水预警体系建设和石窟作防雨防渗等措施的建议,以便有效预防洪水,切实保障莫高窟安全。
The regional climate is extremely dry in Dunhuang Mogao Grottoes conservation area. However,the floods occurring repeatedly in the early times resulted in humid caves,moldy crisp and alkalescent murals,posing a great threat to the national key cultural relics protection. Therefore,we should take further measures to prevent floods,analyze and forecast the flood discharge of the Mogao Grottoes under the different precipitation conditions,to improve the risk warning system by predicting the flood time of Daquan River in front of the caves so as to ensure Mogao Grottoes' security. In this study,based on the field investigation and analysis of river basin characteristics,we appropriately predicted the rainfalls on Daquan River Ye Ma Mountains,140 Gobi and Sanwei Hill at years of 50,100 and 500,respectively,by an instantaneous unit hydrograph method which suits for regions shortage of flow. The flood flows were calculated when these rainfalls occurred at two places:(1)when rainfall starts from the mountains in the upper Mustang,followed by to the middle and lower sections of mobile,the flood flows were 230,463 and757 m3/s at years of 50,100 and 500,respectively;(2) when the rainfall starts at the whole basin,the flood flows were 230,330 and 510 m3/s at years of 50,100 and 500,respectively. The prediction result is confirmed to be reliable according to two actual 100 year flood peak discharge,meteorological conditions and numerical estimates. In order to improve the ability of Mogao Grottoes to resist flood risk,to ensure the safety of Mogao Grottoes,and to prevent and take preventive measures,we puts forward the measures to establish and improve the basin precipitation and flood monitoring system,carry out large spring river protection project construction,rainfall flood warning system construction and rainproof and seepage controlling for caves. So that to be effective in preventing floods,and effectively protect the safety of the Mogao Grottoes.
The regional climate is extremely dry in Dunhuang Mogao Grottoes conservation area. However,the floods occurring repeatedly in the early times resulted in humid caves,moldy crisp and alkalescent murals,posing a great threat to the national key cultural relics protection. Therefore,we should take further measures to prevent floods,analyze and forecast the flood discharge of the Mogao Grottoes under the different precipitation conditions,to improve the risk warning system by predicting the flood time of Daquan River in front of the caves so as to ensure Mogao Grottoes' security. In this study,based on the field investigation and analysis of river basin characteristics,we appropriately predicted the rainfalls on Daquan River Ye Ma Mountains,140 Gobi and Sanwei Hill at years of 50,100 and 500,respectively,by an instantaneous unit hydrograph method which suits for regions shortage of flow. The flood flows were calculated when these rainfalls occurred at two places:(1)when rainfall starts from the mountains in the upper Mustang,followed by to the middle and lower sections of mobile,the flood flows were 230,463 and757 m3/s at years of 50,100 and 500,respectively;(2) when the rainfall starts at the whole basin,the flood flows were 230,330 and 510 m3/s at years of 50,100 and 500,respectively. The prediction result is confirmed to be reliable according to two actual 100 year flood peak discharge,meteorological conditions and numerical estimates. In order to improve the ability of Mogao Grottoes to resist flood risk,to ensure the safety of Mogao Grottoes,and to prevent and take preventive measures,we puts forward the measures to establish and improve the basin precipitation and flood monitoring system,carry out large spring river protection project construction,rainfall flood warning system construction and rainproof and seepage controlling for caves. So that to be effective in preventing floods,and effectively protect the safety of the Mogao Grottoes.
引文
[1]刘琴.敦煌大泉河水环境特征与水资源合理利用研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2006.LIU Qin.Study on water resources assessment and water environment characteristics of the Daquan river in Dunhuang[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2006.
[2]张明泉,王旭东,贾宁,等.敦煌大泉河水环境特征分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(4):7-10.ZHANG Ming-quan,WANG Xu-dong,JIA Ning,et al.Analysis of water environment characteristics of the Daquan river in Dunhuang[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,2006,42(4):7-10.
[3]杨善龙.敦煌莫高窟崖体中水、盐分布现状初步研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.YANG Shan-long.Preliminary study on water,salt distribution situation of Dunhuang Mogao cliff[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2009.
[4]兰州大学,敦煌研究院.敦煌莫高窟水资源评价与合理利用研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2005.Lanzhou University,Dunhuang Academy.Study on water resources assessment and rational utilization of Dunhuang Mogao Grottoes[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2005.
[5]张百祖.敦煌大泉河流域“6·5”暴雨洪水调查分析[J].甘肃农业,2013(22):85-87.ZHANG Bai-zu.Dunhuang Daquang river basin“6·5”storm flood investigation and analysis[J].Gansu Agricultural,2013(22):85-87.
[6]牛正宇.甘肃省敦煌市大泉河“20120604”暴雨洪水致灾原因分析[J].北京农业,2013(8):147.NIU Zheng-yu.Dunhuang city of Gansu Province Daquan river“20120604”storm and flood disaster cause analysis[J].Beijing Agricultural,2013(8):147.
[7]张明泉,王亚芹,王旭东,等.敦煌大泉河径流量24小时变化规律分析[J].水文,2009,29(4):83-86.ZHANG Ming-quan,WANG Ya-qin,WANG Xu-dong,et al.Analysis of 24 hour runoff variation rule of Daquan river in Dunhuang[J].Joural of China Hydrology,2009,29(4):83-86.
[8]李红寿.敦煌莫高窟园林用水资源调查及园林用水分析[J].敦煌研究,2005,92(4):87-96.LI Hong-shou.A brief count on watering garden round Mogao Grottoe[J].Dunhuang Research,2005,92(4):87-96.
[9]张明泉,赵转军,曾正中.敦煌盆地水环境特征与水资源可持续利用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(4):71-76.ZHANG Ming-quan,ZHAO Zhuan-jun,ZENG Zhengzhong.The characteristics of water system and the sustainable utilization of water resources in Dunhuang Basin[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Encironment,2003,17(4):71-76.
[10]张明泉,王旭东,贾宁,等.敦煌大泉河水环境特征分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(4):7-10.ZHANG Ming-quan,WANG Xu-dong,JIA Ning,et al.Analysis of water environment characteristics of the Daquan river in Dunhuang[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,2006,42(4):7-10.
[11]Hosking J R M,Wallis J R.Regional frequency analysis:an approach based on L-moments[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,2005.
[12]Cunnane C.Statistical distributions for flood frequency analysis[M].Geneva:WMO Operational Hydrology Report,1989.
[13]王正发.中国大坝设计洪水计算、评估与确定[J].西北水电,2013(6):1-5.WANG Zheng-fa.Calculation,eavluation and determination of design flood of dams in China[J].Northwest Water Power,2013(6):1-5.
[14]叶镇国.土木工程水文学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2000.YE Zhen-guo.Civil engineering hydrology[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2000.
[15]HE Shan-feng,GE Quan-sheng.Projecting spatial patterns of flood hazard:recent climate and future changes over Yangtze river basin[J].Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment,2010,8(3):83-88.
[16]王维第,许翼正.瞬时单位线法在西北干旱、半干旱地区的应用[J].西北水电技术,1985(2):54-67.WANG Wei-di,XU Yi-zheng.Application of instantaneous unit line method in northwest arid,semi-arid areas[J].Northwest Water Power Technology,1985(2):54-67.
[17]张文军,李建.对甘肃酒泉一次暴雨的数值模拟和诊断分析[J].干旱气象,2012,30(1):100-106.ZHANG Wen-jun,LI Jian.Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a heavy rain occurred in Jiuquan of Gansu Province[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2012,30(1):100-106.
[18]谢小平.水库防洪关键问题的理论与方法研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2010.XIE Xiao-ping.Study on theory and method of some key problems in reservoir flood control[D].Xi’an;Xi’an University of Technology,2010.
[19]张红萍.山区小流域洪水风险评估与预警技术研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2012.ZHANG Hong-ping.Study on the flood risk management and technology of the small mountain watershed[D].Beijing:China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2012.
[2]张明泉,王旭东,贾宁,等.敦煌大泉河水环境特征分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(4):7-10.ZHANG Ming-quan,WANG Xu-dong,JIA Ning,et al.Analysis of water environment characteristics of the Daquan river in Dunhuang[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,2006,42(4):7-10.
[3]杨善龙.敦煌莫高窟崖体中水、盐分布现状初步研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2009.YANG Shan-long.Preliminary study on water,salt distribution situation of Dunhuang Mogao cliff[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2009.
[4]兰州大学,敦煌研究院.敦煌莫高窟水资源评价与合理利用研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2005.Lanzhou University,Dunhuang Academy.Study on water resources assessment and rational utilization of Dunhuang Mogao Grottoes[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou University,2005.
[5]张百祖.敦煌大泉河流域“6·5”暴雨洪水调查分析[J].甘肃农业,2013(22):85-87.ZHANG Bai-zu.Dunhuang Daquang river basin“6·5”storm flood investigation and analysis[J].Gansu Agricultural,2013(22):85-87.
[6]牛正宇.甘肃省敦煌市大泉河“20120604”暴雨洪水致灾原因分析[J].北京农业,2013(8):147.NIU Zheng-yu.Dunhuang city of Gansu Province Daquan river“20120604”storm and flood disaster cause analysis[J].Beijing Agricultural,2013(8):147.
[7]张明泉,王亚芹,王旭东,等.敦煌大泉河径流量24小时变化规律分析[J].水文,2009,29(4):83-86.ZHANG Ming-quan,WANG Ya-qin,WANG Xu-dong,et al.Analysis of 24 hour runoff variation rule of Daquan river in Dunhuang[J].Joural of China Hydrology,2009,29(4):83-86.
[8]李红寿.敦煌莫高窟园林用水资源调查及园林用水分析[J].敦煌研究,2005,92(4):87-96.LI Hong-shou.A brief count on watering garden round Mogao Grottoe[J].Dunhuang Research,2005,92(4):87-96.
[9]张明泉,赵转军,曾正中.敦煌盆地水环境特征与水资源可持续利用[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(4):71-76.ZHANG Ming-quan,ZHAO Zhuan-jun,ZENG Zhengzhong.The characteristics of water system and the sustainable utilization of water resources in Dunhuang Basin[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Encironment,2003,17(4):71-76.
[10]张明泉,王旭东,贾宁,等.敦煌大泉河水环境特征分析[J].兰州大学学报:自然科学版,2006,42(4):7-10.ZHANG Ming-quan,WANG Xu-dong,JIA Ning,et al.Analysis of water environment characteristics of the Daquan river in Dunhuang[J].Journal of Lanzhou University:Natural Sciences,2006,42(4):7-10.
[11]Hosking J R M,Wallis J R.Regional frequency analysis:an approach based on L-moments[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,2005.
[12]Cunnane C.Statistical distributions for flood frequency analysis[M].Geneva:WMO Operational Hydrology Report,1989.
[13]王正发.中国大坝设计洪水计算、评估与确定[J].西北水电,2013(6):1-5.WANG Zheng-fa.Calculation,eavluation and determination of design flood of dams in China[J].Northwest Water Power,2013(6):1-5.
[14]叶镇国.土木工程水文学[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2000.YE Zhen-guo.Civil engineering hydrology[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2000.
[15]HE Shan-feng,GE Quan-sheng.Projecting spatial patterns of flood hazard:recent climate and future changes over Yangtze river basin[J].Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment,2010,8(3):83-88.
[16]王维第,许翼正.瞬时单位线法在西北干旱、半干旱地区的应用[J].西北水电技术,1985(2):54-67.WANG Wei-di,XU Yi-zheng.Application of instantaneous unit line method in northwest arid,semi-arid areas[J].Northwest Water Power Technology,1985(2):54-67.
[17]张文军,李建.对甘肃酒泉一次暴雨的数值模拟和诊断分析[J].干旱气象,2012,30(1):100-106.ZHANG Wen-jun,LI Jian.Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a heavy rain occurred in Jiuquan of Gansu Province[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2012,30(1):100-106.
[18]谢小平.水库防洪关键问题的理论与方法研究[D].西安:西安理工大学,2010.XIE Xiao-ping.Study on theory and method of some key problems in reservoir flood control[D].Xi’an;Xi’an University of Technology,2010.
[19]张红萍.山区小流域洪水风险评估与预警技术研究[D].北京:中国水利水电科学研究院,2012.ZHANG Hong-ping.Study on the flood risk management and technology of the small mountain watershed[D].Beijing:China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2012.