非线性时变增益模型在辽宁西部旱区洪水预测的应用研究
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摘要
以辽宁西部旱区绕阳河流域为研究实例,结合区域内东白城子水文站1959—2016年实测水文数据,分析非线性时变增益模型在辽宁西部旱区洪水预测的适用性,并对比该模型和辽宁非饱和模型在辽西旱区洪水预测的精度。研究结果表明:非线性时变增益模型可综合考虑降雨径流的非线性系统关系,洪水预测精度较辽宁非饱和模型有较为明显的改善,其中确定性系数提高0.20,洪峰和洪量误差合格率均提高37.5%,非线性时变增益模型更适用于辽西旱区的洪水预测。研究成果对于北方旱区防洪规划具有参考价值。
Taking Yaoyang river basin( which is the arid regions in western Liaoning province) as the research example, combined with the measured data in Dongbaichengzi hydrological station from 1959 to 2016, this paper analyzed the applicability of nonlinear time-varying gain mode for flood prediction in the arid regions of western Liaoning province, and compared the prediction accuracy with Liaoning unsaturated model. The results showed that the nonlinear time-varying gain model could consider the nonlinear system relationship between the rainfall and runoff comprehensively. Compared to the Liaoning unsaturated model, the accuracy of the nonlinear time-varying gain model had a significant improvement, which the deterministic coefficient increased by 0. 20, and the pass rate of the flood peak and flood volume increased by 37. 5%. The nonlinear time-varying gain model was more suitable for flood simulation in the western Liaoning province. The research results were valuable for flood control planning in the northern arid areas.
Taking Yaoyang river basin( which is the arid regions in western Liaoning province) as the research example, combined with the measured data in Dongbaichengzi hydrological station from 1959 to 2016, this paper analyzed the applicability of nonlinear time-varying gain mode for flood prediction in the arid regions of western Liaoning province, and compared the prediction accuracy with Liaoning unsaturated model. The results showed that the nonlinear time-varying gain model could consider the nonlinear system relationship between the rainfall and runoff comprehensively. Compared to the Liaoning unsaturated model, the accuracy of the nonlinear time-varying gain model had a significant improvement, which the deterministic coefficient increased by 0. 20, and the pass rate of the flood peak and flood volume increased by 37. 5%. The nonlinear time-varying gain model was more suitable for flood simulation in the western Liaoning province. The research results were valuable for flood control planning in the northern arid areas.
引文
[1]苏万敏.小流域洪水预报方法研究及应用[D].大连:大连理工大学,2016.
[2]夏军,叶爱中,乔云峰,等.黄河无定河流域分布式时变增益水文模型的应用研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2007(4):457-465.
[3]叶爱中,夏军,王纲胜.黄河流域时变增益分布式水文模型(Ⅱ)——模型的校检与应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006(4):29-32.
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[2]夏军,叶爱中,乔云峰,等.黄河无定河流域分布式时变增益水文模型的应用研究[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2007(4):457-465.
[3]叶爱中,夏军,王纲胜.黄河流域时变增益分布式水文模型(Ⅱ)——模型的校检与应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006(4):29-32.
[4]夏军,叶爱中,王纲胜.黄河流域时变增益分布式水文模型(Ⅰ)——模型的原理与结构[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2005(6):10-15.
[5]万蕙,夏军,张利平,等.淮河流域水文非线性多水源时变增益模型研究与应用[J].水文,2015,35(3):14-19.
[6]董小涛.洪水预报模型在北方半干旱地区应用研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[7]唐继业,吴俊秀,单丽,等.辽宁省无资料地区设计暴雨洪水计算方法的研究[J].水利建设与管理,2001,21(S1):43-44+48.