基于API模型和SCE-UA算法的三湾水库产流预报模型研究
|
摘要
产流预报是水利工程设计和运行管理的重要内容。以辽宁丹东三湾水库为例,利用人机交互试错法与SCE-UA算法构建起基于API水文模型和SCE-UA算法的三湾水库产流预报模型。通过对2012～2016年23场洪水预报,合格率这87%,该模型对提高三湾水库的流域产流预报精度具有重要意义。
Runoff producing forecast is a key item for design and operation of hydraulic project. Taking the Sanwan Reservoir in Dandong City of Liaoning Province as example, the runoff producing forecast model was set up by human-computer interaction trial-and-error method based on API hydrological model and SCE-UA algorithm. The forecast passing rate of 23 times of floods from 2012 to 2016 is 87%. This model is meaningful for improving the runoff producing forecast accuracy of Sanwan Reservoir.
Runoff producing forecast is a key item for design and operation of hydraulic project. Taking the Sanwan Reservoir in Dandong City of Liaoning Province as example, the runoff producing forecast model was set up by human-computer interaction trial-and-error method based on API hydrological model and SCE-UA algorithm. The forecast passing rate of 23 times of floods from 2012 to 2016 is 87%. This model is meaningful for improving the runoff producing forecast accuracy of Sanwan Reservoir.
引文
[1]焉岚.三湾水利枢纽工程下闸蓄水方案探析[J].陕西水利,2016(4):82-84.
[2]杨坤.三湾水库输水工程线路设计方案比选[J].东北水利水电,2015,33(11):12,19.
[3]刘国富,周涛,楼其禄.连续API水文模型的研究及应用[J].大坝与安全,2008(2):4-8.
[4]谢静.API模型在中小河流预报方案编制中的应用[J].陕西水利,2018(5):12-14.
[5]李怡文,田慧子,张岩.新安江模型参数误差分析及减少误差的途径[J].河南水利与南水北调,2018,47(2):42-44.
[6]周建中,卢韦伟,孙娜,等.水文模型参数多目标率定及最优非劣解优选[J].水文,2017,37(2):1-7.
[7]徐会军,陈洋波,曾碧球,等.SCE-UA算法在流溪河模型参数优选中的应用[J].热带地理,2012,32(1):32-37.
[2]杨坤.三湾水库输水工程线路设计方案比选[J].东北水利水电,2015,33(11):12,19.
[3]刘国富,周涛,楼其禄.连续API水文模型的研究及应用[J].大坝与安全,2008(2):4-8.
[4]谢静.API模型在中小河流预报方案编制中的应用[J].陕西水利,2018(5):12-14.
[5]李怡文,田慧子,张岩.新安江模型参数误差分析及减少误差的途径[J].河南水利与南水北调,2018,47(2):42-44.
[6]周建中,卢韦伟,孙娜,等.水文模型参数多目标率定及最优非劣解优选[J].水文,2017,37(2):1-7.
[7]徐会军,陈洋波,曾碧球,等.SCE-UA算法在流溪河模型参数优选中的应用[J].热带地理,2012,32(1):32-37.