1950～2016年印度洪涝灾害时空分异特征
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摘要
洪涝是影响印度社会经济发展的首要自然灾害。基于全球紧急事件数据库(Emergency Events Database,简称EM-DAT),通过识别洪涝事件,利用频次分析方法,分析了1950年～2016年印度洪涝灾害事件频次的时空变化,揭示了印度洪涝灾害的时间和空间分异特征和因灾致死人口的变化特征。结果发现:(1)印度洪涝灾害呈现鲜明的季节变化特征,7-9月为高发季节,占总频次的65.704%,峰值出现在7月,占24.549%;1950年～2016年洪涝频次总体呈增加趋势。(2)印度北部,特别是东北部,是洪涝灾害的高发区。(3)1950年～2016年洪涝灾害致死人口随洪涝频次增加而增加,但单次死亡人口最大值和年最大死亡人口值均明显降低。由此表明,20世纪中叶以来印度抵御洪涝灾害的能力逐渐增强。研究为进一步分析印度社会的脆弱性和未来气候变化情景下的洪涝灾害风险奠定了基础。
Using the Global Emergency Database(EM-DAT), we count the flood disaster events in India. With the frequency analysis method, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of flood disaster events in India from 1950 to 2016.then, we disclosed the spatial and temporal variations of flood disasters and deaths.The results showed that:(1)the flood disaster in India exhibit a distinct seasonal cycle, which is characterized by high frequency from July to September, accounting for 65.70%, with the peak in July, accounting for 24.55%. The annual frequency of flood increased generally from 1950 to 2016.(2)The spatial variations of flood frequency are characterized by high frequency in north, especially in the northeast; while, it is low in the south.(3)The death induced by floods in 1950-2016 increased along with increasing frequency of floods, but both the maximum death of each flood and the largest annual death decreased significantly. This finding indicates that India has gradually strengthened its ability to address floods disasters since the mid-20 th century. This study could serve as foundation for further analysis of the vulnerability of Indian society and the risk of flood disaster in future climate change scenarios.
Using the Global Emergency Database(EM-DAT), we count the flood disaster events in India. With the frequency analysis method, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of flood disaster events in India from 1950 to 2016.then, we disclosed the spatial and temporal variations of flood disasters and deaths.The results showed that:(1)the flood disaster in India exhibit a distinct seasonal cycle, which is characterized by high frequency from July to September, accounting for 65.70%, with the peak in July, accounting for 24.55%. The annual frequency of flood increased generally from 1950 to 2016.(2)The spatial variations of flood frequency are characterized by high frequency in north, especially in the northeast; while, it is low in the south.(3)The death induced by floods in 1950-2016 increased along with increasing frequency of floods, but both the maximum death of each flood and the largest annual death decreased significantly. This finding indicates that India has gradually strengthened its ability to address floods disasters since the mid-20 th century. This study could serve as foundation for further analysis of the vulnerability of Indian society and the risk of flood disaster in future climate change scenarios.
引文
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[15]兰桂萍.印度洪涝灾害的成因及影响浅析.地理教育,2005(2):32-32.
[16]Dhar O N,Nandargi S.Hydrometeorological aspects of floods in India.Natural Hazards,2003,28(1):1-33.
[17]万洪涛.印度的洪水灾害与减灾措施.水利发展研究,2005,5(9):59-63.
[2]宋志辉,马春燕.印度灾害管理的经验与启示.南亚研究季刊,2016(1):91-96.
[3]Adhikari P,Hong Y,Douglas K R,et al.A digitized global flood inventory(1998-2008):Compilation and preliminary results.Natural Hazards,2010,55(2):405-422.
[4]Sharma D.Situation analysis of flood disaster in south and southeast asia-a need of integrated approach.International Journal of Science Environment&Technology,2012,1(3):167-173.
[5]Singh O,Kumar M.Flood events,fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006.Natural Hazards,2013,69(3):1815-1834.
[6]Shrestha M.Impacts of floods in South Asia.J South Asia Disaster Stud,2008,1(1):85-106.
[7]Gupta S,Javed A,Datt D.Economics of Flood Protection in India.Natural Hazards,2003,28(1):199-210.
[8]Kale V S.Flood studies in India:A brief review.Journal of the Geological Society of India,1997,49(4):359-370.
[9]Das P,Chutiya D,Hazarika N.Adjusting to floods on the Brahmaputra Plains,Assam,India.Adjusting to Floods on the Brahmaputra Plains Assam India,2009:43-49.
[10]Jha C V,Bairagya H.Flood and flood plains of West Bengal,India:A comparative analysis.Revista Geoaraguaia,2013:1-10.
[11]Aminuzzaman M.Spatial Distribution of flood affected areas&its’impact on agriculture:A case study of murshidabad district,West Bengal,India.International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Research(IJSER),2015,3(7):173-175.
[12]Sanyal J,Lu X X.GIS‐based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales:A case study in Gangetic West Bengal,India.Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography,2010 27(2):207-220.
[13]Kundu S,Aggarwal S P,Kingma N,et al.Flood monitoring using microwave remote sensing in a part of Nuna river basin,Odisha,India.Natural Hazards,2015,76(1):123-138.
[14]司瑞洁,温家洪,尹占娥,等.EM-DAT灾难数据库概述及其应用研究.科技导报,2007,25(6):60-67.
[15]兰桂萍.印度洪涝灾害的成因及影响浅析.地理教育,2005(2):32-32.
[16]Dhar O N,Nandargi S.Hydrometeorological aspects of floods in India.Natural Hazards,2003,28(1):1-33.
[17]万洪涛.印度的洪水灾害与减灾措施.水利发展研究,2005,5(9):59-63.