四川省雅安市公路洪灾风险评估研究
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摘要
为评价公路洪灾的风险性,以雅安市为研究对象,基于公路洪灾致灾机理、破坏形态,综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和灾情因子四方面因素,遴选出公路造价等11个指标构建公路洪灾风险评估指标体系.利用层次分析法、模糊概率理论建立公路洪灾风险评估模型,对雅安市公路洪灾风险进行区划.区划结果表明:雅安市公路洪灾风险性被分为高中风险亚区、中高风险亚区和中低风险亚区、低风险区四档三级.经济发达的雨城区的公路洪灾风险性较高,名山及西南部区县次之,宝兴、芦山的公路洪灾风险性较小;分区结果与近三年公路洪灾损失结果相符,评价结果有一定的科学性和参考价值.
Road floods have happened frequently in the past few years and caused great losses in the economy of Sichuan province.To assess the risk of road floods,a study was made with Ya'an as the study area.Based on failure mechanisms and forms of road floods,and taking into consideration flood-causing factors,flood-developing environment,hazard-affected bodies and flooding factors,an index system of risk assessment for road flooding was constructed,which consisted of 11 relevant and pertinent indicators.Using the AHP-entrophy method and the theory of fuzzy probability,a risk assessment model was built and a map of risk of road floods in Ya'an city was drawn.The results of road flood hazard zoning divided Ya'an into a high-medium-risk area,a medium-high-risk area,a medium-low-risk area and a low-risk area.Of the four areas,Yucheng district,the central urban area of Ya'an with a well developed economy,was shown to have the highest road flood risk,followed in sequence by Mingshan,Baoxing and Lushan.These results were consistent with the actual losses of road floods in the past 3 years.
Road floods have happened frequently in the past few years and caused great losses in the economy of Sichuan province.To assess the risk of road floods,a study was made with Ya'an as the study area.Based on failure mechanisms and forms of road floods,and taking into consideration flood-causing factors,flood-developing environment,hazard-affected bodies and flooding factors,an index system of risk assessment for road flooding was constructed,which consisted of 11 relevant and pertinent indicators.Using the AHP-entrophy method and the theory of fuzzy probability,a risk assessment model was built and a map of risk of road floods in Ya'an city was drawn.The results of road flood hazard zoning divided Ya'an into a high-medium-risk area,a medium-high-risk area,a medium-low-risk area and a low-risk area.Of the four areas,Yucheng district,the central urban area of Ya'an with a well developed economy,was shown to have the highest road flood risk,followed in sequence by Mingshan,Baoxing and Lushan.These results were consistent with the actual losses of road floods in the past 3 years.
引文
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[2] CAI H,RASDORF W,TILLEY C.Approach to Determine Extent and Depth of Highway Flooding[J].Journal of Infrastrure Systems,2007,13(2):157-167.
[3] XIA J Q,FALCONER R A,LIN B L,et al.Numerical Assessment of Flood Hazard Risk to People and Vehicales in Flash Fioods[J].Environmental Modelling,2011,26(8):987-998.
[4]陈远川,陈洪凯.山区沿河公路路基洪水毁损过程及机理研究[J].公路,2012,11:95-103.
[5] MOHAMMADKHAN S,AHMADI H,JAFARI M.Relationship Between Soil Erosion,Slop,Parent Material,and Distance to Road(Case Study:Latian Watershed,Iran)[J].Arab J Geosci,2012,4(1-2):311-338.
[6]唐红梅,廖学海,陈洪凯.基于模糊概率的阿坝州公路洪灾孕灾环境分区[J].灾害学,2014,29(4):52-56.
[7] APEL H,THIEKEN A H,MERZ B,et al.Flood Risk Assessment and Associated Uncertainty[J].Natural Hzaards and Earth System Sciences,2004,4(2):295-308.
[8]黄大鹏,刘闯,彭顺风.洪灾风险评估与区划研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(4):11-21.
[9]林孝松,陈洪凯,王先进,等.西南地区公路洪灾孕灾环境分区[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):251-256.
[10]李帅杰,李昌志,程晓陶.区域洪灾风险评估方法初探—以浙江省为例[J].水利水电技术,2012,43(3):82-87.
[11]刘家福,李京,梁雨华,等.亚洲典型区域暴雨洪灾风险评估研究[J].地理科学,2011,31(10):1266-1271.
[12]牛全福.基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估方法研究—以“4.14”玉树地震为例[D].兰州:兰州大学,2011.
[13]段生荣.典型小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J].水利规划与设计,2009(2):20-22.
[14]覃庆梅,林孝松,唐红梅,等.重庆市万州区公路洪灾孕灾环境分区[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2011,30(1):89-94.
[15]SINHA R,BAPALU G V,SINGH L K,et al.Flood Risk Analysis in the Kosi River Basin,North Bihar Using MultiParametric Approach of Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP)[J].Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing,2008,36(4):335-349.
[16]马国荣,杨申琳.基于物元分析的AHP确定指标权重系数方法[J].长安大学学报,2003,23(5):117-119.
[17]卿清涛,徐金霞,马振峰,等.四川盆地区雾霾灾害风险区划初探[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2017,39(9):145-152.
[18]汪国懋.基于层次分析法的水利PPP项目风险评价[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版),2016,30(9):156-160.
[19]李存斌,张益.基于三角模糊数的电力企业科研风险模糊综合评判[J].重庆理工大学学报(自然科学版),2017,31(1):143-151.
[20]刘章军,叶燎原,彭刚.砂土地震液化的模糊概率模型[J].岩土力学,2008,29(4):876-880.