暴雨洪灾风险评估研究进展
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摘要
洪灾风险评估是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤,作为非工程性防洪措施的一种,要及时、准确地把握洪水灾害的多方面特征。首先对洪灾风险形成机理、洪灾风险评估与区划、洪灾风险评估方法3个方面进行国内外研究现状及分析,指出当前洪灾风险评估中在评估指标体系、评估方法及模型、风险演变驱动机制等方面尚存在的问题,最后,对洪灾风险评估中的发展趋势进行了展望。
With the deepening of the disaster research worldwide as well as China's rapid economic development in the past three decades, people both within China and around the world have paid more and more attention to the awareness of disaster prevention and reduction. The risk assessment is one of the most important and basic study areas and has thus become increasingly important and urgent for China. The risk assessment is not only for the risk analysis, which has become an important part of disaster prediction, damage assessment,and disaster reduction decision. The risk assessment has also a great significance for the disaster risk during the development, utilization of resources, disaster defense, and governance and reducing disaster plan. In addition, this type of assessment could provide the scientific basis for the rapid assessment and decision making when suffering disasters. Flood is one of the most devastating events among the disasters. It is well-acknowledged that flood risk assessment is the first step in the management of flood risk. As a kind of non-engineering flood control measures, this type of assessment aims to obtain the flood disaster status both timely and accurately. In order to reduce the harm caused by the rainstorm flood disaster as much as possible, and to understand the occurrence and development of the rainstorm flood disaster from the scientific sense, the assessments of regional flood risk has become one of the hottest issues in the current academic research. Firstly, this article elaborated the basic concept of the rainstorm flood disaster. Second, we investigated the current literature status both domestically and internationally on three aspects including the formation mechanism of flood risk assessment, risk assessment and regionalization of flood, and flood risk assessment method. We further pointed out the existing research problems on the establishment of the evaluation index system, the determination of the weight of the assessment index system, the evaluation method and model, and the driving mechanism of risk change. Finally, this paper carried on the predictions on the development trend of flood risk assessment from several aspects including the data processing, the temporal and spatial dimensions, and the method of risk evaluation. We believe that this study could become one of the most important handy references to help researchers and it may guide future studies in the investigation of flood risk assessment.
With the deepening of the disaster research worldwide as well as China's rapid economic development in the past three decades, people both within China and around the world have paid more and more attention to the awareness of disaster prevention and reduction. The risk assessment is one of the most important and basic study areas and has thus become increasingly important and urgent for China. The risk assessment is not only for the risk analysis, which has become an important part of disaster prediction, damage assessment,and disaster reduction decision. The risk assessment has also a great significance for the disaster risk during the development, utilization of resources, disaster defense, and governance and reducing disaster plan. In addition, this type of assessment could provide the scientific basis for the rapid assessment and decision making when suffering disasters. Flood is one of the most devastating events among the disasters. It is well-acknowledged that flood risk assessment is the first step in the management of flood risk. As a kind of non-engineering flood control measures, this type of assessment aims to obtain the flood disaster status both timely and accurately. In order to reduce the harm caused by the rainstorm flood disaster as much as possible, and to understand the occurrence and development of the rainstorm flood disaster from the scientific sense, the assessments of regional flood risk has become one of the hottest issues in the current academic research. Firstly, this article elaborated the basic concept of the rainstorm flood disaster. Second, we investigated the current literature status both domestically and internationally on three aspects including the formation mechanism of flood risk assessment, risk assessment and regionalization of flood, and flood risk assessment method. We further pointed out the existing research problems on the establishment of the evaluation index system, the determination of the weight of the assessment index system, the evaluation method and model, and the driving mechanism of risk change. Finally, this paper carried on the predictions on the development trend of flood risk assessment from several aspects including the data processing, the temporal and spatial dimensions, and the method of risk evaluation. We believe that this study could become one of the most important handy references to help researchers and it may guide future studies in the investigation of flood risk assessment.
引文
[1]陈颙,史培军.自然灾害[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[2]Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED).EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base[EB/OL].http://www.em-dat.net.
[3]唐为安,田红,杨元建,等.基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险区划研究——以安徽省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(3):356~361.
[4]陈萍,王兴玲,陈晓玲.基于栅格的鄱阳湖生态经济区洪灾脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):958~964.
[5]殷洁,戴尔阜,吴绍洪.中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1370~1376.
[6]李谢辉,王磊,谭灵芝,等.渭河下游河流沿线区域洪水灾害风险评价[J].地理科学,2009,29(5):733~739.
[7]Lind N,Pandey M,Nathwani J.Assessing and affording the control of flood risk[J].Structural Safety,2009,31(2):143-147.
[8]Dang N M,Babel M S,Luong H T.Evaluation of flood risk parameters in the Day River flood diversion area,Red River Delta,Vietnam[J].Natural Hazards,2011,56(1):169-194.
[9]陈曜,丁晶,赵永红.基于投影寻踪原理的四川省洪灾评估[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):220~225.
[10]康相武,吴绍洪,戴尔享,等.大尺度洪水灾害损失与影响预评估[J].科学通报,2006,51:155~164.
[11]卢全中,彭建兵,赵法锁.地质灾害风险评估研究综述[J].灾害学,2003,18(4):59~63.
[12]Kaplan S,Garrick B J.On The Quantitative Definition of Risk[J].Risk Analysis,1981,1(1):11-27.
[13]Maskrey A.Disaster mitigation:A community based approach[M].Oxford:Oxfam,1989.
[14]United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs(UNDHA).Mitigating Natural Disasters Phenomena,Effects and Options:A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners[M].New York:United Nations,1991:1-164.
[15]Shook G.An assessment of disaster risk and its management in Thailand[J].Disasters,1997,21(1):77-88.
[16]刘希林.区域泥石流风险评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):54~61.
[17]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[18]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,111(3):1~9.
[19]Joy S,X X Lu.Remote sensing and GIS-based flood vulnerability assessment of human settlements:a case study of Gangetic West Bengal,India[J].Hydrological Process,2005,19(18):3699-3716.
[20]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA).Guidelines and Specifications for Flood Hazard Mapping Partners[EB/OL].http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/6998?id=2206
[21]Shidawara M.Flood hazard map distribution[J].Urban Water,1999,1(2):125-129.
[22]Islam M M,Sado K.Flood hazard assessment in Bangladesh using NOAA AVHRR data with geographical information system[J].Hydrological Process,2000,14(3):605-620.
[23]李吉顺,冯强,王昂生.我国暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性评估[M].北京:气象出版社,1996.
[24]赵士鹏.山洪灾情评估的系统集成方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,1995.
[25]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15~24.
[26]何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002,14(4):84~89.
[27]唐川,朱静.基于GIS的山洪灾害风险区划[J].地理学报,2005,60(1):87~94.
[28]孙才志,李秀明.基于Arc GIS的下辽河平原地下水功能评价[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):174~180.
[29]宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等.基于GIS技术的广东省洪涝灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):58~63.
[30]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6~17.
[31]殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,等.风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析——黄浦江案例[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1155~1160.
[32]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[33]万君,周月华,王迎迎,等.基于GIS的湖北省区域洪涝灾害风险评估方法研究[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(4):328~333.
[34]Zhu M L,Fu J M.Comparison between fuzzy reasoning and neural network method to forecast runoff discharge[J].Journal of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering,1994,12(2):131-141.
[35]Nayak P C,Sudheer K P,Ramasastri K S.Fuzzy computing based rainfall-runoff model for real time flood forecasting[J].Hydrological Processes,2005,19(4):955-968.
[36]刘新颜,曹晓仪,董治宝.基于T-S模糊神经网络模型的榆林市土壤风蚀危险度评价[J].地理科学,2013,33(6):741~747.
[37]刘新立.区域风险评估的理论与实践[D].北京:北京师范大学,2000.
[38]毛德华,李景保,龚重惠,等.湖南省洪涝灾害研究[M].长沙:湖南师范大学出版社,2000.
[39]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价——理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[40]JoséI B.Major flood disasters in Europe:1950-2005[J].Natural Hazards,2007,(42):125-148.
[41]Feng L Y,Zhong Y C,Xian Y R,et al.Analysis of historical floods on the Yangtze River,China:Characteristics and explanations[J].Geomeorphology,2009,(113):210-216.
[42]王静静,刘敏,权瑞松,等.中国东南沿海地区暴雨洪涝风险风区及评价[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2010,31(1):14~16.
[43]潘耀忠,史培军.区域自然灾害系统基本单元研究——I:理论部分[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(4):1~9.
[44]Yan Q L,Ji C,Mervyn P,et al.Flash flood hydarologic Processes of a small headwater catchment in Hong Kong[J].Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,2009,(1):66-67.
[45]Patro S,Chatterjee C,Mohanty S,et al.Flood Inundation Modeling using MIKE FLOOD and Remote Sensing Data[J].Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing,2009,37(1):107-118.
[46]Saeed G,Bahram S,Reza M.Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting[J].Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3547-3559.
[47]Mukhopadhyay B,Cornelius J,Zehner W.Application of kinematic wave theory for predicting flash flood hazards on coupled alluvial fan-piedmont plain landforms[J].Hydrological Process,2003,17(4):839-868.
[48]Tawatchai T,Mohammed F.Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh[J].Hydrological Process,2005,(19):2055-2069.
[49]姚长青,杨志峰,赵彦伟.分布式水文-土壤-植被模型与GIS集成研究[J].水土保持学报,2006,20(1):168~171.
[50]黄大鹏,刘闯,彭顺风.洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(4):11~22.
[51]葛全胜,周铭,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[2]Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters(CRED).EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base[EB/OL].http://www.em-dat.net.
[3]唐为安,田红,杨元建,等.基于GIS的低温冷冻灾害风险区划研究——以安徽省为例[J].地理科学,2012,32(3):356~361.
[4]陈萍,王兴玲,陈晓玲.基于栅格的鄱阳湖生态经济区洪灾脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2012,32(8):958~964.
[5]殷洁,戴尔阜,吴绍洪.中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划[J].地理科学,2013,33(11):1370~1376.
[6]李谢辉,王磊,谭灵芝,等.渭河下游河流沿线区域洪水灾害风险评价[J].地理科学,2009,29(5):733~739.
[7]Lind N,Pandey M,Nathwani J.Assessing and affording the control of flood risk[J].Structural Safety,2009,31(2):143-147.
[8]Dang N M,Babel M S,Luong H T.Evaluation of flood risk parameters in the Day River flood diversion area,Red River Delta,Vietnam[J].Natural Hazards,2011,56(1):169-194.
[9]陈曜,丁晶,赵永红.基于投影寻踪原理的四川省洪灾评估[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):220~225.
[10]康相武,吴绍洪,戴尔享,等.大尺度洪水灾害损失与影响预评估[J].科学通报,2006,51:155~164.
[11]卢全中,彭建兵,赵法锁.地质灾害风险评估研究综述[J].灾害学,2003,18(4):59~63.
[12]Kaplan S,Garrick B J.On The Quantitative Definition of Risk[J].Risk Analysis,1981,1(1):11-27.
[13]Maskrey A.Disaster mitigation:A community based approach[M].Oxford:Oxfam,1989.
[14]United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs(UNDHA).Mitigating Natural Disasters Phenomena,Effects and Options:A Manual for Policy Makers and Planners[M].New York:United Nations,1991:1-164.
[15]Shook G.An assessment of disaster risk and its management in Thailand[J].Disasters,1997,21(1):77-88.
[16]刘希林.区域泥石流风险评价研究[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(1):54~61.
[17]张继权,李宁.主要气象灾害风险评价与管理的数量化方法及其应用[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,2007.
[18]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,111(3):1~9.
[19]Joy S,X X Lu.Remote sensing and GIS-based flood vulnerability assessment of human settlements:a case study of Gangetic West Bengal,India[J].Hydrological Process,2005,19(18):3699-3716.
[20]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA).Guidelines and Specifications for Flood Hazard Mapping Partners[EB/OL].http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/6998?id=2206
[21]Shidawara M.Flood hazard map distribution[J].Urban Water,1999,1(2):125-129.
[22]Islam M M,Sado K.Flood hazard assessment in Bangladesh using NOAA AVHRR data with geographical information system[J].Hydrological Process,2000,14(3):605-620.
[23]李吉顺,冯强,王昂生.我国暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性评估[M].北京:气象出版社,1996.
[24]赵士鹏.山洪灾情评估的系统集成方法研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,1995.
[25]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15~24.
[26]何报寅,张海林,张穗,等.基于GIS的湖北省洪水灾害危险性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2002,14(4):84~89.
[27]唐川,朱静.基于GIS的山洪灾害风险区划[J].地理学报,2005,60(1):87~94.
[28]孙才志,李秀明.基于Arc GIS的下辽河平原地下水功能评价[J].地理科学,2013,33(2):174~180.
[29]宫清华,黄光庆,郭敏,等.基于GIS技术的广东省洪涝灾害风险区划[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):58~63.
[30]史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6~17.
[31]殷杰,尹占娥,于大鹏,等.风暴洪水主要承灾体脆弱性分析——黄浦江案例[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1155~1160.
[32]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[33]万君,周月华,王迎迎,等.基于GIS的湖北省区域洪涝灾害风险评估方法研究[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(4):328~333.
[34]Zhu M L,Fu J M.Comparison between fuzzy reasoning and neural network method to forecast runoff discharge[J].Journal of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering,1994,12(2):131-141.
[35]Nayak P C,Sudheer K P,Ramasastri K S.Fuzzy computing based rainfall-runoff model for real time flood forecasting[J].Hydrological Processes,2005,19(4):955-968.
[36]刘新颜,曹晓仪,董治宝.基于T-S模糊神经网络模型的榆林市土壤风蚀危险度评价[J].地理科学,2013,33(6):741~747.
[37]刘新立.区域风险评估的理论与实践[D].北京:北京师范大学,2000.
[38]毛德华,李景保,龚重惠,等.湖南省洪涝灾害研究[M].长沙:湖南师范大学出版社,2000.
[39]黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价——理论与实践[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[40]JoséI B.Major flood disasters in Europe:1950-2005[J].Natural Hazards,2007,(42):125-148.
[41]Feng L Y,Zhong Y C,Xian Y R,et al.Analysis of historical floods on the Yangtze River,China:Characteristics and explanations[J].Geomeorphology,2009,(113):210-216.
[42]王静静,刘敏,权瑞松,等.中国东南沿海地区暴雨洪涝风险风区及评价[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2010,31(1):14~16.
[43]潘耀忠,史培军.区域自然灾害系统基本单元研究——I:理论部分[J].自然灾害学报,1997,6(4):1~9.
[44]Yan Q L,Ji C,Mervyn P,et al.Flash flood hydarologic Processes of a small headwater catchment in Hong Kong[J].Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,2009,(1):66-67.
[45]Patro S,Chatterjee C,Mohanty S,et al.Flood Inundation Modeling using MIKE FLOOD and Remote Sensing Data[J].Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing,2009,37(1):107-118.
[46]Saeed G,Bahram S,Reza M.Derivation of Probabilistic Thresholds of Spatially Distributed Rainfall for Flood Forecasting[J].Water Resources Management,2010,24(13):3547-3559.
[47]Mukhopadhyay B,Cornelius J,Zehner W.Application of kinematic wave theory for predicting flash flood hazards on coupled alluvial fan-piedmont plain landforms[J].Hydrological Process,2003,17(4):839-868.
[48]Tawatchai T,Mohammed F.Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh[J].Hydrological Process,2005,(19):2055-2069.
[49]姚长青,杨志峰,赵彦伟.分布式水文-土壤-植被模型与GIS集成研究[J].水土保持学报,2006,20(1):168~171.
[50]黄大鹏,刘闯,彭顺风.洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(4):11~22.
[51]葛全胜,周铭,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.