南京市水环境承载力动态变化研究
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摘要
为揭示区域水环境承载力动态变化特征,以南京市为例,从社会经济、水资源和水生态环境3个子系统选取18个指标,构建水环境承载力评价指标体系并确定各指标权重,利用模糊综合评价模型对水环境承载力进行评价,并通过障碍度模型诊断影响水环境承载力的障碍因素.结果表明:①2006—2016年南京市水环境承载力综合评分值从0. 345 0增至0. 470 0,整体呈上升趋势.②子系统评分值差异较大.水生态环境子系统评分值波动起伏但总体水平较高,年均评分值为0. 615 1;社会经济子系统评分值从0. 427 6逐年增至0. 635 6.二者为承载力的提升奠定了基础.水资源子系统评分值低于0. 200 0,极大地制约了南京市水环境承载力的发展水平.③从障碍度分析来看,人口密度、水资源开发利用率、人均水资源量及水功能区水质达标率是水环境承载力的主要障碍因素;就子系统而言,水资源子系统的障碍作用最为显著.研究显示,人口密度偏大、水资源供需矛盾及水功能区水质达标率偏低等是制约南京市水环境承载力的关键因素,也是提升南京市水环境承载力的重点.
To reveal dynamic characteristics of regional water environment carrying capacity,this study designed an indicator system consisting of three subsystems( socioeconomic subsystem,water resource subsystem and water eco-environment subsystem),and determined the weights of indicators. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model was used to map out the dynamic trend of water environment carrying capacity. Obstacle degree model was used to analyze the obstacle factors. The results showed that:( 1) The water environment carrying capacity steadily increased from 0. 3450 in 2006 to 0. 4700 in 2016.( 2) There were great differences among the subsystems. The evaluation index of the water eco-environment subsystems reached more than 0. 6151 with some fluctuations,and the economic subsystem increased from 0. 4276 to 0. 6356,which laid a solid foundation for the improvement of water environment carrying capacity. The water resource subsystem,with evaluation index lower than 0. 2000,was found to be the top factor impacting water environment carrying capacity.( 3) According to the analysis of obstacle degree,the factors with higher obstacle degrees were the population density,water resource utilization rate,per capita water resources,and water quality compliance rate. The water resource subsystem was the dominant factor that influenced the water environment carrying capacity. The primary challenges to improve the water environment carrying capacity are dense population and low compliance rate of water quality. Attention should be paid to these factors when improving the water environment carrying capacity in Nanjing City.
To reveal dynamic characteristics of regional water environment carrying capacity,this study designed an indicator system consisting of three subsystems( socioeconomic subsystem,water resource subsystem and water eco-environment subsystem),and determined the weights of indicators. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model was used to map out the dynamic trend of water environment carrying capacity. Obstacle degree model was used to analyze the obstacle factors. The results showed that:( 1) The water environment carrying capacity steadily increased from 0. 3450 in 2006 to 0. 4700 in 2016.( 2) There were great differences among the subsystems. The evaluation index of the water eco-environment subsystems reached more than 0. 6151 with some fluctuations,and the economic subsystem increased from 0. 4276 to 0. 6356,which laid a solid foundation for the improvement of water environment carrying capacity. The water resource subsystem,with evaluation index lower than 0. 2000,was found to be the top factor impacting water environment carrying capacity.( 3) According to the analysis of obstacle degree,the factors with higher obstacle degrees were the population density,water resource utilization rate,per capita water resources,and water quality compliance rate. The water resource subsystem was the dominant factor that influenced the water environment carrying capacity. The primary challenges to improve the water environment carrying capacity are dense population and low compliance rate of water quality. Attention should be paid to these factors when improving the water environment carrying capacity in Nanjing City.
引文
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[19]王奎峰,李娜,于学峰,等.基于P-S-R概念模型的生态环境承载力评价指标体系研究:以山东半岛为例[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(8):2133-2139.WANG Kuifeng,LI Na,YU Xuefeng,et al. Eco-environmental carrying capacity evaluation index system based on the concept of P-S-R model:a case study in Shandong Peninsula[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(8):2133-2139.
[20] WANG Tianxiang,XU Shiguo. Dynamic successive assessment method of water environment carrying capacity and its application[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,52:134-146.
[21] LIU R Z,BORTHWICK A G L. Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo,China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2011,92(8):2047-2053.
[22] KHALILI N R,DUECKER S.Application of multi-criteria decision analysis in design of sustainable environmental management system framework[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,47(47):188-198.
[23] WANG Jiayang,WEI Xiaomei,GUO Qian. A three-dimensional evaluation model for regional carrying capacity of ecological environment to social economic development:model development and a case study in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,89:348-355.
[24] SHINDELL D. Protecting the environment can boost the economy[J].Nature,2009,459(7245):321-321.
[25] HUANG Changchun,ZHANG Mingli,ZOU Jun,et al. Changes in land use,climate and the environment during a period of rapid economic development in Jiangsu Province,China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2015,536:173-181.
[26]曾现进,李天宏,温晓玲.基于AHP和向量模法的宜昌市水环境承载力研究[J].环境科学与技术,2013,36(6):200-205.ZENG Xianjin,LI Tianhong,WEN Xiaoling. Analysis on carrying capacity of water environment in Yichang City based on AHP and vector norm method[J]. Environmental Science&Technology(China),2013,36(6):200-205.
[27]李新,石建屏,曹洪.基于指标体系和层次分析法的洱海流域水环境承载力动态研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(6):1338-1344.LI Xin,SHI JianPing,CAO Hong. Water environment carrying capacity of Erhai Lake based on index system and analytic hierarchy process[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2011,31(6):1338-1344.
[28] ZHANG Z,LU W X,ZHAO Y,et al.Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process[J]. Ecological Modelling,2014,275:9-21.
[29] LIU Li,ZHOU Jianzhong,AN Xueli,et al. Using fuzzy theory and information entropy for water quality assessment in Three Gorges Region,China[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(3):2517-2521.
[30] CHEN Tingyu,LI Chaihang. Determining objective weights with intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measures:a comparative analysis[J].Information Sciences,2010,180(21):4207-4222.
[31] RAI S P,SHARMA N,LOHANI A K. Risk assessment for transboundary rivers using fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,519:1551-1559.
[32] XIE Qiuju,NI Jiqin,SU Zhongbin.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of multiple environmental factors for swine building assessment and control[J].Journal of Hazard Materials,2017,340:463-471.
[33] SHIDPOUR H,CUNHA C D,BERNARD A. Group multi-criteria design concept evaluation using combined rough set theory and fuzzy set theory[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2016,64:633-644.
[34]郑晶,于浩,黄森慰.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的福建省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(11):4391-4398.ZHENG Jing,YU Hao,HUANG Senwei. Evaluation and obstacle factors study on eco-environmental carrying capacity in Fujian Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(11):4391-4398.
[35]孙茜,张捍卫,张小虎.河南省资源环境承载力测度及障碍因素诊断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(7):33-38.SUN Qian,ZHANG Hanwei,ZHANG Xiaohu. Resources and environment carrying capacity estimation and the obstacle factors diagnosis for Henan Province[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(7):33-38.
[2] ZHU Yonghua,DRAKE S,LHaishen,et al.Analysis of temporal and spatial differences in eco-environmental carrying capacity related to water in the Haihe River Basins,China[J]. Water Resources Management,2009,24(6):1089-1105.
[3] LIU Huijuan,WANG Dongsheng,YUAN Baoling.Sustainable water environment and water use:a perspective on water resource utilization[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2016,50(12):1-2.
[4] HUI Cang. Carrying capacity, population equilibrium, and environment's maximal load[J]. Ecological Modelling,2006,192(1):317-320.
[5] HONG Yang,FLOWER R J,THOMPSON J R.Sustaining China's water resources[J].Science,2013,339(6116):141.
[6] DAILY G C,EHRLICH P R.Population,sustainability,and earth's carrying capacity[J].Bioscience,1992,42(10):761-771.
[7] WANG Changhai,HOU Yilei,XUE Yongji. Water resources carrying capacity of wetlands in Beijing:analysis of policy optimization for urban wetland water resources management[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,161:1180-1191.
[8] PRATO T. Fuzzy adaptive management of social and ecological carrying capacities for protected areas[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2009,90(8):2551-2557.
[9]唐剑武,郭怀成,叶文虎.环境承载力及其在环境规划中的初步应用[J].中国环境科学,1997,17(1):6-9.TANG Jianwu,GUO Huicheng,YE Wenhu. Environmental bearing capacity and its application on environmental planning[J]. China Environmental Science,1997,17(1):6-9.
[10] KOMATSU Y,TSUNEKAWA A,JU H. Evaluation of agricultural sustainability based on human carrying capacity in drylands:a case study in rural villages in Inner Mongolia,China[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems&Environment,2005,108(1):29-43.
[11] LEE B G,LEE K.Environmental sustainability assessment based on the concept of carbon carrying capacity[J]. Applied Mechanics&Materials,2013,284/285/286/287:1511-1517.
[12] ZHANG Bo,KULA A,KML M,et al. Carrying capacity in a heterogeneous environment with habitat connectivity[J]. Ecology Letters,2017,20(9):1-11.
[13] MONTE-LUNA P D,BROOK B W,ZETINA-REJ N M J,et al.The carrying capacity of ecosystems[J]. Global Ecology&Biogeography,2004,13(6):485-495.
[14] GRAYMORE M L M,SIPE N G,RICKSON R E.Sustaining human carrying capacity:a tool for regional sustainability assessment[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(3):459-468.
[15] LI Na,YANG Hong,WANG Lachun,et al.Optimization of industry structure based on water environmental carrying capacity under uncertainty of the Huai River Basin within Shandong Province,China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112:4594-4604.
[16] REPAR N,JAN P,DUX D,et al. Implementing farm-level environmental sustainability in environmental performance indicators:a combined global-local approach[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,140(2):692-704.
[17]崔凤军.城市水环境承载力及其实证研究[J].自然资源学报,1998,13(1):58-62.CUI Fengjun.The carrying capacity of municipal water environment and its case study[J].Journal of Natural Resources,1998,13(1):58-62.
[18]赵卫,刘景双,苏伟,等.辽宁省辽河流域水环境承载力的多目标规划研究[J].中国环境科学,2008,28(1):73-77.ZHAO Wei,LIU Jingshuang,SU Wei,et al. Studies on multiobjective programming of water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)in Liaohe Watershed[J].China Environmental Science,2008,28(1):73-77.
[19]王奎峰,李娜,于学峰,等.基于P-S-R概念模型的生态环境承载力评价指标体系研究:以山东半岛为例[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(8):2133-2139.WANG Kuifeng,LI Na,YU Xuefeng,et al. Eco-environmental carrying capacity evaluation index system based on the concept of P-S-R model:a case study in Shandong Peninsula[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(8):2133-2139.
[20] WANG Tianxiang,XU Shiguo. Dynamic successive assessment method of water environment carrying capacity and its application[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,52:134-146.
[21] LIU R Z,BORTHWICK A G L. Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo,China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2011,92(8):2047-2053.
[22] KHALILI N R,DUECKER S.Application of multi-criteria decision analysis in design of sustainable environmental management system framework[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,47(47):188-198.
[23] WANG Jiayang,WEI Xiaomei,GUO Qian. A three-dimensional evaluation model for regional carrying capacity of ecological environment to social economic development:model development and a case study in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,89:348-355.
[24] SHINDELL D. Protecting the environment can boost the economy[J].Nature,2009,459(7245):321-321.
[25] HUANG Changchun,ZHANG Mingli,ZOU Jun,et al. Changes in land use,climate and the environment during a period of rapid economic development in Jiangsu Province,China[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2015,536:173-181.
[26]曾现进,李天宏,温晓玲.基于AHP和向量模法的宜昌市水环境承载力研究[J].环境科学与技术,2013,36(6):200-205.ZENG Xianjin,LI Tianhong,WEN Xiaoling. Analysis on carrying capacity of water environment in Yichang City based on AHP and vector norm method[J]. Environmental Science&Technology(China),2013,36(6):200-205.
[27]李新,石建屏,曹洪.基于指标体系和层次分析法的洱海流域水环境承载力动态研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(6):1338-1344.LI Xin,SHI JianPing,CAO Hong. Water environment carrying capacity of Erhai Lake based on index system and analytic hierarchy process[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2011,31(6):1338-1344.
[28] ZHANG Z,LU W X,ZHAO Y,et al.Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process[J]. Ecological Modelling,2014,275:9-21.
[29] LIU Li,ZHOU Jianzhong,AN Xueli,et al. Using fuzzy theory and information entropy for water quality assessment in Three Gorges Region,China[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(3):2517-2521.
[30] CHEN Tingyu,LI Chaihang. Determining objective weights with intuitionistic fuzzy entropy measures:a comparative analysis[J].Information Sciences,2010,180(21):4207-4222.
[31] RAI S P,SHARMA N,LOHANI A K. Risk assessment for transboundary rivers using fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,519:1551-1559.
[32] XIE Qiuju,NI Jiqin,SU Zhongbin.Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of multiple environmental factors for swine building assessment and control[J].Journal of Hazard Materials,2017,340:463-471.
[33] SHIDPOUR H,CUNHA C D,BERNARD A. Group multi-criteria design concept evaluation using combined rough set theory and fuzzy set theory[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2016,64:633-644.
[34]郑晶,于浩,黄森慰.基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的福建省生态环境承载力评价及障碍因素研究[J].环境科学学报,2017,37(11):4391-4398.ZHENG Jing,YU Hao,HUANG Senwei. Evaluation and obstacle factors study on eco-environmental carrying capacity in Fujian Province based on DPSIR-TOPSIS model[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2017,37(11):4391-4398.
[35]孙茜,张捍卫,张小虎.河南省资源环境承载力测度及障碍因素诊断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(7):33-38.SUN Qian,ZHANG Hanwei,ZHANG Xiaohu. Resources and environment carrying capacity estimation and the obstacle factors diagnosis for Henan Province[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(7):33-38.