利用气象台站浅层地温资料计算地温梯度的讨论
|
摘要
对利用浅地表长时间气象地温序列分析提取稳态地温梯度信息的方法中可能存在的问题进行讨论,提出改进手段.因为与大地热流密度相联系的地温梯度一般在0.01~0.03℃/m左右,而过去气象地温观测一般仅读数到0.1℃,本文认为这样的读数精度很难满足大地热流密度测量的要求,但通过对长时间累积的观测资料进行统计分析等合理的数据处理方法有可能实现突破.本文也讨论了气候变暖趋势对浅表地温梯度的影响.百年尺度地表长期单调增温确实会引起浅表地温梯度的减小,使其偏离构造大地热流密度的地温梯度,但是在百年尺度增温1℃的情况下,计算出的地温梯度误差仍在可接受的范围内,且可以利用气象资料对地温梯度进行校正.利用新一代高精度数字气象地温资料进行大地热流反演是可行的方法,但需要从现在起进行长时间的资料积累.
Theoretically,one can calculate the information of steady-state geothermal gradient based on long-term temperature observations near the surface. We point out that it is difficult to determine heat flux in actual implementation by using meteorological records with a precision of 0. 1 ℃.However,it may make a breakthrough by statistically analyzing a large amount of accumulated temperature observations. The influence of global warming on shallow geothermal gradient is also discussed. Although the monotonous increase in the ground temperature in a long term of centennial scale indeed leads to the decrease in shallow geothermal gradient and to the deviation from thegeothermal gradient connected with heat flux,the calculated geothermal gradient errors are still within an acceptable range if the warming amplitude is within 1 ℃. Deriving geothermal flux based on meteorological data by a high-precision digital thermometer is feasible,but it requires us to accumulate data for a long term from now on.
Theoretically,one can calculate the information of steady-state geothermal gradient based on long-term temperature observations near the surface. We point out that it is difficult to determine heat flux in actual implementation by using meteorological records with a precision of 0. 1 ℃.However,it may make a breakthrough by statistically analyzing a large amount of accumulated temperature observations. The influence of global warming on shallow geothermal gradient is also discussed. Although the monotonous increase in the ground temperature in a long term of centennial scale indeed leads to the decrease in shallow geothermal gradient and to the deviation from thegeothermal gradient connected with heat flux,the calculated geothermal gradient errors are still within an acceptable range if the warming amplitude is within 1 ℃. Deriving geothermal flux based on meteorological data by a high-precision digital thermometer is feasible,but it requires us to accumulate data for a long term from now on.
引文
[1]Chen X D,Jin X,Guan Y W,et al.The influence of daily and annual variation of the surface temperature on near-surface temperature survey[J].Progress in Geophysics,2006,21(3):1 008-1 011(in Chinese).陈晓冬,金旭,管彦武,等.长春地区地表温度日变、年变对地温测量的影响[J].地球物理学进展,2006,21(3):1 008-1 011.
[2]Jin X,Chen X D,Guan Y W.The Correction of the influence of climatic change upon geotemperature measurement at shallow layer[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2004,25(5):579-582(in Chinese).金旭,陈晓冬,管彦武.气候变化对浅层地温测量影响的改正[J].地球学报,2004,25(5):579-582.
[3]Lee Y,Deming D.Heat flow and thermal history of the Anadarko Basin and the western Oklahoma Platform[J].Tectonophysics,1999,313(4):399-410.
[4]Wei D P,Shi Y L,Tang M C,et al.Calculation of heat flow from meteorological data[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1992,35(6):733-739(in Chinese).魏东平,石耀霖,汤懋苍,等.利用气象地温资料反演大地热流[J].地球物理学报,1992,35(6):733-739.
[5]Jiang X,Wei D P,liu Q Q,et al.Calculation of Chinese mainland heat flow distribution from meteorological data[C]∥Chinese Geophysical Society,Seismological Society of China.Symposium of the twenty-sixth academic annual meeting of Chinese Geophysical Society and the thirteenth academic meeting of Seismological Society of China.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:223(in Chinese).姜晓,魏东平,刘迁迁,等.利用气象地温资料计算中国大陆地区的热流分布[C]∥中国地球物理学会,中国地震学会.中国地球物理2010——中国地球物理学会第二十六届年会,中国地震学会第十三次学术大会论文集.北京:地震出版社,2010:223.
[6]Liu Q Q,Wei D P,Sun Z T,et al.Exploration of regional surface average heat flow from metrological and geothermal series[J].Applied Geophysics,2013,10(4):495-505.
[7]杨林,邓振飞,杨淑芝.中国气象台站历史沿革数据库[J].气象科技,1997(2):52-54.
[8]Zhang Y X,Zhang G M,Shi Y L.Physical mechanism of ground temperature abnormality as an earthquake precursor[C]∥Chinese Geophysical Society.Symposium of the sixth academic annual meeting of Chinese Geophysical Society.Beijing:Seismological Press,1990:293(in Chinese).张永仙,张国民,石耀霖.地温地震前兆的物理机制[C]∥中国地球物理学会.1990年中国地球物理学会第六届学术年会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1990:293.
[9]Blackett M,Wooster M J,Malamud B D.Exploring land surface temperature earthquake precursors:a focus on the Gujarat(India)earthquake of 2001[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38(15):L15303.
[10]Wang L Y,Zhu C Z.Anomalous variations of ground temperature before the Tangshan and Haicheng earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1984,7(6):649-656(in Chinese).王林瑛,朱传镇.唐山地震和海城地震前地温的异常变化[J].地震研究,1984,7(6):649-656.
[11]Wang Q C.Features of the geothermal evolution around the epicenters before the Xingtai and the Tangshan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,1995,(2):19-22(in Chinese).王勤彩.邢台唐山地震前震中附近的地温演变特点[J].山西地震,1995,2(81):19-22.
[12]Zhang X Q,Rong Y,Wang J R.Precursory anomaly of deformation and deep well geotemperature before Xinghai earthquake with Ms 6.6 in Qinghai province[J].Earthquake Research in Plateau,2001,13(1):32-37(in Chinese).张晓清,容艳,王稼荣.青海省兴海6.6级地震形变和深井地温前兆异常[J].高原地震,2001,13(1):32-37.
[13]Yang T,Zhang X G,Pu L J.High accuracy ground temperature and seismic precursor abnormity in Eshan county of Yunnan province[J].Journal of Institute of DisasterPrevention Science and Technology,2007,9(1):51-54(in Chinese).杨涛,张晓刚,普莉军.云南省峨山县高精度地温观测值与地震前兆异常[J].防灾科技学院学报,2007,9(1):51-54.
[14]Shi Y L,Cao J L,Ma L,et al.Tele-seismic coseismic well temperature changes and their interpretation[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(3):265-273(in Chinese).石耀霖,曹建玲,马丽,等.唐山井水温的同震变化及其物理解释[J].地震学报,2007,29(3):265-273.
[15]Ma Y C,Liu Y W,Teng R R.Analysis of the characteristics of coseismic changes of water temperature caused by Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake and Sumatra M8.7 earthquake[C]∥The Institue of Crustal Dynamics.Symposium of Crustal Tectonics and Stress.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:116-127(in Chinese).马玉川,刘耀炜,滕荣荣.汶川8.0级地震与苏门答腊8.7级地震井水温度同震响应特征分析[C]∥中国地震局地壳应力研究所.地壳构造与地壳应力文集.北京:中国地震出版社,2010:116-127.
[16]Jiang H,Wang Z R,Liu Y X,et al.The dynamics statistical characteristics between the earthquake,ground temperature and precipitation in China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2002,45(Supl):144-150(in Chinese).江灏,王钟睿,柳艳香,等.我国地震、地温、降水之间的动态统计特征[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(增刊):144-150.
[17]Tang M C,Zhang J.Seasonal mean soil temperature anomaly field at depth 3.2m and its application in prediction for flood season[J].Plateau Meteorology,1994,13(2):178-187(in Chinese).汤懋苍,张建.季平均3.2m地温距平场在汛期预报中的应用[J].高原气象,1994,13(2):178-187.
[18]Zhou Y J,Tang M C.The basic method of forecasting yearly precipitation with soil temperature[J].Plateau Meteorology,1989,8(3):228-240(in Chinese).周亚军,汤懋苍.用地温做年度降水预报的一种改进[J].高原气象,1989,8(3):228-240.
[19]Tang M C,Wang J X,Zhang J.A primary method for predicting the spring rainfall by the winter soil temperature depth 80cm[J].Plateau Meteorology,1987,6(3):244-255(in Chinese).汤懋苍,王敬香,张建.利用冬季0.8米地温距平场预报春季降水场的初步方法[J].高原气象,1987,6(3):244-255.
[20]Tang M C,Yin J H,Cai J P.Related statistical analysis between ground temperature distribution of winter and rainfall of spring and summer[J].Plateau Meteorology,1986,5(1):40-52(in Chinese).汤懋苍,尹建华,蔡洁萍.冬季地温分布与春、夏降水相关的统计分析[J].高原气象,1986,5(1):40-52.
[21]Bai Z,Bai M Z G,Mei D B Z.Forecast Ali summer rainfall based on deep ground temperature[J].Plateau Meteorology,2009(4):53-54(in Chinese).白珍,白玛卓嘎,美多白珍.利用深层地温预测阿里地区夏季降水[J].高原气象,2009(4):53-54.
[22]Li L.Forecasting the rainfall of Shaoguan Station using the deep ground temperature data based on multivariate nonlinear regression equation[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2003(2):8-10(in Chinese).李丽.用深层地温资料建立多元非线性回归方程预报韶关站前汛期降水量[J].广东气象,2003(2):8-10.
[23]Nan Z T,Li S X,Liu Y Z.Mean annual ground temperature distribution on the Tibetan Plateau:permafrost distribution mapping and further application[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2002,24(2):142-148(in Chinese).南卓铜,李述训,刘永智.基于年平均地温的青藏高原冻土分布制图及应用[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(2):142-148.
[24]Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.Summary for policymakers[J].Climate change,2007:1-18.
[25]Karl T R,Kukla G,Razuvayev V N,et al.Global warming:evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1991,18(12):2 253-2 256.
[26]Hansen J,Sato M,Ruety R,et al.Global temperature change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2006,103(39):14 288-14 293.
[27]Huang S P,Shen B Y,Wang J Y.Reading paleoclimate from borehole temperature profiles:principles and examples[J].Quaternary Sciences,1995(3):195-222(in Chinese).黄少鹏,沈伯瑜,汪集旸.从钻孔温度看气候变化:方法介绍及实例[J].第四季研究,1995(3):195-222.
[28]Turcotte D L,Schubert G.Geodynamics[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002:150-152.
[29]Fu Z Z,LüG X.SZW-1 Digital borehole quartz thermometer[J].Earthquake,1984(1):15-19(in Chinese).付子忠,吕国贤.SZW-1型数字式钻孔温度计[J].地震,1984(1):15-19.
[30]Yang Z Z.Coseismic variations of well water-level and temperature caused by seismic waves and their generating Mechanisms[D].Beijing:Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,2011(in Chinese).杨竹转,地震波引起的井水位水温同震变化及其机理研究[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2011.
[2]Jin X,Chen X D,Guan Y W.The Correction of the influence of climatic change upon geotemperature measurement at shallow layer[J].Acta Geoscientica Sinica,2004,25(5):579-582(in Chinese).金旭,陈晓冬,管彦武.气候变化对浅层地温测量影响的改正[J].地球学报,2004,25(5):579-582.
[3]Lee Y,Deming D.Heat flow and thermal history of the Anadarko Basin and the western Oklahoma Platform[J].Tectonophysics,1999,313(4):399-410.
[4]Wei D P,Shi Y L,Tang M C,et al.Calculation of heat flow from meteorological data[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1992,35(6):733-739(in Chinese).魏东平,石耀霖,汤懋苍,等.利用气象地温资料反演大地热流[J].地球物理学报,1992,35(6):733-739.
[5]Jiang X,Wei D P,liu Q Q,et al.Calculation of Chinese mainland heat flow distribution from meteorological data[C]∥Chinese Geophysical Society,Seismological Society of China.Symposium of the twenty-sixth academic annual meeting of Chinese Geophysical Society and the thirteenth academic meeting of Seismological Society of China.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:223(in Chinese).姜晓,魏东平,刘迁迁,等.利用气象地温资料计算中国大陆地区的热流分布[C]∥中国地球物理学会,中国地震学会.中国地球物理2010——中国地球物理学会第二十六届年会,中国地震学会第十三次学术大会论文集.北京:地震出版社,2010:223.
[6]Liu Q Q,Wei D P,Sun Z T,et al.Exploration of regional surface average heat flow from metrological and geothermal series[J].Applied Geophysics,2013,10(4):495-505.
[7]杨林,邓振飞,杨淑芝.中国气象台站历史沿革数据库[J].气象科技,1997(2):52-54.
[8]Zhang Y X,Zhang G M,Shi Y L.Physical mechanism of ground temperature abnormality as an earthquake precursor[C]∥Chinese Geophysical Society.Symposium of the sixth academic annual meeting of Chinese Geophysical Society.Beijing:Seismological Press,1990:293(in Chinese).张永仙,张国民,石耀霖.地温地震前兆的物理机制[C]∥中国地球物理学会.1990年中国地球物理学会第六届学术年会论文集.北京:地震出版社,1990:293.
[9]Blackett M,Wooster M J,Malamud B D.Exploring land surface temperature earthquake precursors:a focus on the Gujarat(India)earthquake of 2001[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38(15):L15303.
[10]Wang L Y,Zhu C Z.Anomalous variations of ground temperature before the Tangshan and Haicheng earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,1984,7(6):649-656(in Chinese).王林瑛,朱传镇.唐山地震和海城地震前地温的异常变化[J].地震研究,1984,7(6):649-656.
[11]Wang Q C.Features of the geothermal evolution around the epicenters before the Xingtai and the Tangshan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research in Shanxi,1995,(2):19-22(in Chinese).王勤彩.邢台唐山地震前震中附近的地温演变特点[J].山西地震,1995,2(81):19-22.
[12]Zhang X Q,Rong Y,Wang J R.Precursory anomaly of deformation and deep well geotemperature before Xinghai earthquake with Ms 6.6 in Qinghai province[J].Earthquake Research in Plateau,2001,13(1):32-37(in Chinese).张晓清,容艳,王稼荣.青海省兴海6.6级地震形变和深井地温前兆异常[J].高原地震,2001,13(1):32-37.
[13]Yang T,Zhang X G,Pu L J.High accuracy ground temperature and seismic precursor abnormity in Eshan county of Yunnan province[J].Journal of Institute of DisasterPrevention Science and Technology,2007,9(1):51-54(in Chinese).杨涛,张晓刚,普莉军.云南省峨山县高精度地温观测值与地震前兆异常[J].防灾科技学院学报,2007,9(1):51-54.
[14]Shi Y L,Cao J L,Ma L,et al.Tele-seismic coseismic well temperature changes and their interpretation[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(3):265-273(in Chinese).石耀霖,曹建玲,马丽,等.唐山井水温的同震变化及其物理解释[J].地震学报,2007,29(3):265-273.
[15]Ma Y C,Liu Y W,Teng R R.Analysis of the characteristics of coseismic changes of water temperature caused by Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake and Sumatra M8.7 earthquake[C]∥The Institue of Crustal Dynamics.Symposium of Crustal Tectonics and Stress.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:116-127(in Chinese).马玉川,刘耀炜,滕荣荣.汶川8.0级地震与苏门答腊8.7级地震井水温度同震响应特征分析[C]∥中国地震局地壳应力研究所.地壳构造与地壳应力文集.北京:中国地震出版社,2010:116-127.
[16]Jiang H,Wang Z R,Liu Y X,et al.The dynamics statistical characteristics between the earthquake,ground temperature and precipitation in China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2002,45(Supl):144-150(in Chinese).江灏,王钟睿,柳艳香,等.我国地震、地温、降水之间的动态统计特征[J].地球物理学报,2002,45(增刊):144-150.
[17]Tang M C,Zhang J.Seasonal mean soil temperature anomaly field at depth 3.2m and its application in prediction for flood season[J].Plateau Meteorology,1994,13(2):178-187(in Chinese).汤懋苍,张建.季平均3.2m地温距平场在汛期预报中的应用[J].高原气象,1994,13(2):178-187.
[18]Zhou Y J,Tang M C.The basic method of forecasting yearly precipitation with soil temperature[J].Plateau Meteorology,1989,8(3):228-240(in Chinese).周亚军,汤懋苍.用地温做年度降水预报的一种改进[J].高原气象,1989,8(3):228-240.
[19]Tang M C,Wang J X,Zhang J.A primary method for predicting the spring rainfall by the winter soil temperature depth 80cm[J].Plateau Meteorology,1987,6(3):244-255(in Chinese).汤懋苍,王敬香,张建.利用冬季0.8米地温距平场预报春季降水场的初步方法[J].高原气象,1987,6(3):244-255.
[20]Tang M C,Yin J H,Cai J P.Related statistical analysis between ground temperature distribution of winter and rainfall of spring and summer[J].Plateau Meteorology,1986,5(1):40-52(in Chinese).汤懋苍,尹建华,蔡洁萍.冬季地温分布与春、夏降水相关的统计分析[J].高原气象,1986,5(1):40-52.
[21]Bai Z,Bai M Z G,Mei D B Z.Forecast Ali summer rainfall based on deep ground temperature[J].Plateau Meteorology,2009(4):53-54(in Chinese).白珍,白玛卓嘎,美多白珍.利用深层地温预测阿里地区夏季降水[J].高原气象,2009(4):53-54.
[22]Li L.Forecasting the rainfall of Shaoguan Station using the deep ground temperature data based on multivariate nonlinear regression equation[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2003(2):8-10(in Chinese).李丽.用深层地温资料建立多元非线性回归方程预报韶关站前汛期降水量[J].广东气象,2003(2):8-10.
[23]Nan Z T,Li S X,Liu Y Z.Mean annual ground temperature distribution on the Tibetan Plateau:permafrost distribution mapping and further application[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2002,24(2):142-148(in Chinese).南卓铜,李述训,刘永智.基于年平均地温的青藏高原冻土分布制图及应用[J].冰川冻土,2002,24(2):142-148.
[24]Solomon S,Qin D,Manning M,et al.Summary for policymakers[J].Climate change,2007:1-18.
[25]Karl T R,Kukla G,Razuvayev V N,et al.Global warming:evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change[J].Geophysical Research Letters,1991,18(12):2 253-2 256.
[26]Hansen J,Sato M,Ruety R,et al.Global temperature change[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2006,103(39):14 288-14 293.
[27]Huang S P,Shen B Y,Wang J Y.Reading paleoclimate from borehole temperature profiles:principles and examples[J].Quaternary Sciences,1995(3):195-222(in Chinese).黄少鹏,沈伯瑜,汪集旸.从钻孔温度看气候变化:方法介绍及实例[J].第四季研究,1995(3):195-222.
[28]Turcotte D L,Schubert G.Geodynamics[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2002:150-152.
[29]Fu Z Z,LüG X.SZW-1 Digital borehole quartz thermometer[J].Earthquake,1984(1):15-19(in Chinese).付子忠,吕国贤.SZW-1型数字式钻孔温度计[J].地震,1984(1):15-19.
[30]Yang Z Z.Coseismic variations of well water-level and temperature caused by seismic waves and their generating Mechanisms[D].Beijing:Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,2011(in Chinese).杨竹转,地震波引起的井水位水温同震变化及其机理研究[D].北京:中国地震局地质研究所,2011.