最低工资标准因子测算模型实证研究
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摘要
科学合理的标准测算是最低工资制度有效推行并切实发挥权益保障效应的关键。本文基于文献政策梳理与灰色关联分析的组合方法筛选最低工资标准影响因子,并以1993-2016年间上海市相关统计数据作为研究样本,采用因子分析、因子回归和基于主要因子动态调整相结合的方法构建并实证分析了最低工资标准因子测算模型。研究结果发现:构建所得最低工资因子测算模型的模拟结果与实际执行标准拟合度较高,表明该模型对于最低工资测算具有显著科学可行性和适用性;所选9个因子均与上海市历年最低工资标准具有较强正向关联性,其中最低生活保障标准和人均GDP的影响最为显著,而CPI和经济增长率的影响程度相对最弱;上海市最低工资制度具有较高含金量且受到相关政府部门高度关注,相关标准制定已由早期的"就业和物价导向"为主逐渐转变为近年来的"经济发展和收入支出导向",但最低工资与最低生活保障标准、人均GDP和职工平均工资等部分主要影响因子的比率关系仍不协调。总体说来,上海市最低工资增长和决定机制以及相应配套体制有待进一步完善,最低工资总体水平仍有较大提升空间。在此基础上,为推动上海市乃至全国各地政府制定更为合理适度的最低工资标准而提出系列策略建议。
Scientific and reasonable standard calculation is the key to the effective implementation of the minimum wage system and give full play to the protection effect of rights and interests.The influencing factors of minimum wage standard are selected based on the literature and policy combing and Grey correlation analysis,and the relevant statistical data of Shanghai from 1993 to 2016 were taken is the research sample.Based on the combination of factor analysis,factor regression and dynamic adjustment of main factors,this paper constructs and empirically analyzes the factor calculation model of minimum wage standard.The results show that the simulated results of the minimum wage factor calculation model are in good agreement with the actual implementation standard,which indicates that the model has significant scientific feasibility and applicability for the minimum wage calculation.All the 9 selected factors have strong positive correlation with the minimum wage in Shanghai over the years,among which the minimum living Guarantee standard and GDP per capita are the most significant,while the CPI and economic growth rate are relatively the weakest.The minimum wage system in Shanghai has a high quality and is highly concerned by relevant government departments,and the formulation of the minimum wage standard has gradually changed from the early "employment and price orientation" to the "economic development and income expenditure orientation" in recent years,while the ratio relation between minimum wage and its main influencing factors,such as minimum living guarantee standard,GDP per capita and average wage,is still uncoordinated.Generally speaking,the mechanism of minimum wage growth and decision in Shanghai and the corresponding supporting system need to be further improved,and the overall level of minimum wage still has much room for improvement.On this basis,a series of strategic recommendations are put forward to promote the establishment of a more reasonable and appropriate minimum wage system for governments in Shanghai and even all parts of our country.
Scientific and reasonable standard calculation is the key to the effective implementation of the minimum wage system and give full play to the protection effect of rights and interests.The influencing factors of minimum wage standard are selected based on the literature and policy combing and Grey correlation analysis,and the relevant statistical data of Shanghai from 1993 to 2016 were taken is the research sample.Based on the combination of factor analysis,factor regression and dynamic adjustment of main factors,this paper constructs and empirically analyzes the factor calculation model of minimum wage standard.The results show that the simulated results of the minimum wage factor calculation model are in good agreement with the actual implementation standard,which indicates that the model has significant scientific feasibility and applicability for the minimum wage calculation.All the 9 selected factors have strong positive correlation with the minimum wage in Shanghai over the years,among which the minimum living Guarantee standard and GDP per capita are the most significant,while the CPI and economic growth rate are relatively the weakest.The minimum wage system in Shanghai has a high quality and is highly concerned by relevant government departments,and the formulation of the minimum wage standard has gradually changed from the early "employment and price orientation" to the "economic development and income expenditure orientation" in recent years,while the ratio relation between minimum wage and its main influencing factors,such as minimum living guarantee standard,GDP per capita and average wage,is still uncoordinated.Generally speaking,the mechanism of minimum wage growth and decision in Shanghai and the corresponding supporting system need to be further improved,and the overall level of minimum wage still has much room for improvement.On this basis,a series of strategic recommendations are put forward to promote the establishment of a more reasonable and appropriate minimum wage system for governments in Shanghai and even all parts of our country.
引文
1.韩兆洲,魏章进,高培.我国最低工资统计测算模型研究[J].统计研究,2007(8):36-43.
2 .韩兆洲,魏章进.我国最低工资标准实证研究[J].统计研究,2006(1):35-38.
3 .胡涛,杜丽群.最低工资的经济影响:一般均衡分析[J].经济科学,2013(4):16-25.
4 .胡宗万.2016年最低工资标准地区间协调程度评估研究[J].调研世界,2017(5):49-52.
5 .罗小兰,丛树海.基于攀比效应的中国企业最低工资标准对其他工资水平的影响[J].统计研究,2009,26(6):60-65.
6 .马双,张劼,朱喜.最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响[J].经济研究,2012,47(5):132-146.
7 .宁光杰.中国最低工资标准制定和调整依据的实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2011(1):26-34+111.
8 .孙中伟,舒玢玢.最低工资标准与农民工工资——基于珠三角的实证研究[J].管理世界,2011(8):45-56+188.
9 .王国洪,杨翠迎.我国最低工资标准的影响因素研究[J].现代管理科学,2015(1):27-29.
10 .魏章进,韩兆洲,余鹏翼.最低工资标准影响因素分析[J].商业研究,2010(11):44-47.
11 .严军.上海经济新常态“十大特征”[J].上海经济研究,2015(9):86-94.
12 .叶林祥,T.H.Gindling,李实,熊亮.中国企业对最低工资政策的遵守——基于中国六省市企业与员工匹配数据的经验研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(6):19-32.
13 .Arulampalam W,Booth A L,Bryan M L.Training and the New Minimum Wage[J].Economic Journal,2004,114(494):C87-C94.
14 .Ayres M E.Minimum Wage History[J].Monthly Labor Review,1997,120(12):40-41.
15 .Boeri T.Setting the Minimum Wage[J].Labour Economics,2012,19(3):281-290.
16 .Macurdy T.How Effective Is the Minimum Wage at Supporting the Poor?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2015,123(2):497-545.
17 .Maloney W F,Nunez J.Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages:Evidence from Latin America[J].Nber Working Papers,2001(1):109-330.
18 .Neumark D,Schweitzer M,Wascher W.Minimum Wage Effects throughout the Wage Distribution[J].Journal of Human Resources,2004,39(2):425-450.
19 .Neumark D,Wascher W.Minimum Wages and Employment:A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania:Comment[J].American Economic Review,1993,90(5):1362-1396.
20 .Waltman J,Pittman S.The Determinants of State Minimum Wage Rates:A Public Policy Approach[J].Journal of Labor Research,2002,23(1):51-56.
21 .Weil D.Public Enforcement/Private Monitoring:Evaluating a New Approach to Regulating the Minimum Wage[J].Industrial&Labor Relations Review,2005,58(2):238-257.
(1)台湾地区虽早在20世纪30年代就已有最低工资相关规定,但直到1987年其劳动委员会成立后才得以正式认真执行;香港地区首个《最低工资条例》于2011年5月1日生效,并正式施行首个法定最低工资标准;澳门地区首部最低工资法案《物业管理业务的清洁及保安雇员的最低工资》也于2016年1月1日正式生效。至此我国大陆及港澳台地区均已全面施行最低工资相关规定。
(2)受2008年全球金融危机影响,我国各地2009年最低工资普遍暂缓上调,加之受到2010年工潮事件的推动,我国于2010年迎来新一轮加薪热潮,全国大陆地区共有30个省市自治区上调最低工资,且平均调幅达到22.8%,因而2010年也被称为我国“最低工资调整年”。
(3)数据来源:综合整理自我国4大一线城市及OECD国家统计年鉴,并由简单计算、统计分析可得。
(1)因上海市最低工资标准不包含社会保险、住房公积金以及多项相关补助津贴,故本研究动态调整模型则不再增加社保费用等附加项。
2 .韩兆洲,魏章进.我国最低工资标准实证研究[J].统计研究,2006(1):35-38.
3 .胡涛,杜丽群.最低工资的经济影响:一般均衡分析[J].经济科学,2013(4):16-25.
4 .胡宗万.2016年最低工资标准地区间协调程度评估研究[J].调研世界,2017(5):49-52.
5 .罗小兰,丛树海.基于攀比效应的中国企业最低工资标准对其他工资水平的影响[J].统计研究,2009,26(6):60-65.
6 .马双,张劼,朱喜.最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响[J].经济研究,2012,47(5):132-146.
7 .宁光杰.中国最低工资标准制定和调整依据的实证分析[J].中国人口科学,2011(1):26-34+111.
8 .孙中伟,舒玢玢.最低工资标准与农民工工资——基于珠三角的实证研究[J].管理世界,2011(8):45-56+188.
9 .王国洪,杨翠迎.我国最低工资标准的影响因素研究[J].现代管理科学,2015(1):27-29.
10 .魏章进,韩兆洲,余鹏翼.最低工资标准影响因素分析[J].商业研究,2010(11):44-47.
11 .严军.上海经济新常态“十大特征”[J].上海经济研究,2015(9):86-94.
12 .叶林祥,T.H.Gindling,李实,熊亮.中国企业对最低工资政策的遵守——基于中国六省市企业与员工匹配数据的经验研究[J].经济研究,2015,50(6):19-32.
13 .Arulampalam W,Booth A L,Bryan M L.Training and the New Minimum Wage[J].Economic Journal,2004,114(494):C87-C94.
14 .Ayres M E.Minimum Wage History[J].Monthly Labor Review,1997,120(12):40-41.
15 .Boeri T.Setting the Minimum Wage[J].Labour Economics,2012,19(3):281-290.
16 .Macurdy T.How Effective Is the Minimum Wage at Supporting the Poor?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2015,123(2):497-545.
17 .Maloney W F,Nunez J.Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages:Evidence from Latin America[J].Nber Working Papers,2001(1):109-330.
18 .Neumark D,Schweitzer M,Wascher W.Minimum Wage Effects throughout the Wage Distribution[J].Journal of Human Resources,2004,39(2):425-450.
19 .Neumark D,Wascher W.Minimum Wages and Employment:A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania:Comment[J].American Economic Review,1993,90(5):1362-1396.
20 .Waltman J,Pittman S.The Determinants of State Minimum Wage Rates:A Public Policy Approach[J].Journal of Labor Research,2002,23(1):51-56.
21 .Weil D.Public Enforcement/Private Monitoring:Evaluating a New Approach to Regulating the Minimum Wage[J].Industrial&Labor Relations Review,2005,58(2):238-257.
(1)台湾地区虽早在20世纪30年代就已有最低工资相关规定,但直到1987年其劳动委员会成立后才得以正式认真执行;香港地区首个《最低工资条例》于2011年5月1日生效,并正式施行首个法定最低工资标准;澳门地区首部最低工资法案《物业管理业务的清洁及保安雇员的最低工资》也于2016年1月1日正式生效。至此我国大陆及港澳台地区均已全面施行最低工资相关规定。
(2)受2008年全球金融危机影响,我国各地2009年最低工资普遍暂缓上调,加之受到2010年工潮事件的推动,我国于2010年迎来新一轮加薪热潮,全国大陆地区共有30个省市自治区上调最低工资,且平均调幅达到22.8%,因而2010年也被称为我国“最低工资调整年”。
(3)数据来源:综合整理自我国4大一线城市及OECD国家统计年鉴,并由简单计算、统计分析可得。
(1)因上海市最低工资标准不包含社会保险、住房公积金以及多项相关补助津贴,故本研究动态调整模型则不再增加社保费用等附加项。