基于VAR模型的产业间关联影响实证研究——以济南西部新城为例
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摘要
新城建设是我国城镇化进程中区域发展的重大实践活动,是探索我国城镇化道路和提高城镇化质量与水平的重要途径之一。鉴于济南西部新城产业发展基础较为薄弱、产业体系发展不完善、大部分产业发育程度不成熟的基本事实,运用产业经济密度对济南市各类细分产业进行分析也能反映济南本地产业发展的经济属性、社会属性和地理属性,因此研究选取1996-2010年济南市统计年鉴显示的10个细分产业的统计数据,通过建立组对向量自回归模型(Group-VAR)及其误差修正模型(Group-VEC),采用脉冲响应和方差分解方法,实证检验并归纳总结了以上10个产业经组合后的45组两两产业间的短期和长期关联影响程度,从而为济南西部新城乃至我国新城建设中产业发展战略提供参考。
With the rapid development of China's urbanization,the construction of Urban New District has become one of main development engines of metropolitan area,an approach to deal with urbanization problems as well as to improve the quality of urbanization.In the light of Jinan's New West District industrial development foundation being relatively fragile,industry system development being not perfect,the majority of industrial development being not mature and using industrial economic density of Jinan city's subdivision industries can reflect the local industrial development's economic attribute,social attribute and geographical attribute,this paper establishes a group vector autoregression model and a vector error correction model,uses impulse response and variance decomposition methods to deeply study the relation degree of effect of 45group industries combined the above mentioned 10subdivision industries in the short-term and long-term by selecting the data on Jinan's 10subdivision industries showed in the statistical yearbook during the period of 1996—2010. We hope that the empirical findings can make contribution to the industry development strategy of the Urban New West District of Jinan City.
With the rapid development of China's urbanization,the construction of Urban New District has become one of main development engines of metropolitan area,an approach to deal with urbanization problems as well as to improve the quality of urbanization.In the light of Jinan's New West District industrial development foundation being relatively fragile,industry system development being not perfect,the majority of industrial development being not mature and using industrial economic density of Jinan city's subdivision industries can reflect the local industrial development's economic attribute,social attribute and geographical attribute,this paper establishes a group vector autoregression model and a vector error correction model,uses impulse response and variance decomposition methods to deeply study the relation degree of effect of 45group industries combined the above mentioned 10subdivision industries in the short-term and long-term by selecting the data on Jinan's 10subdivision industries showed in the statistical yearbook during the period of 1996—2010. We hope that the empirical findings can make contribution to the industry development strategy of the Urban New West District of Jinan City.
引文
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[4]方创琳:《改革开放30年来中国的城市化与城镇发展》,《经济地理》第1期。
[5]国家统计局课题组,2002:《我国城镇化战略研究》,《经济研究参考》第35期。
[6]郭克莎,1999:《总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路》,《经济研究》第9期。
[7]何晓春、任木荣、苏国强,2009:《房地产业与三次产业的灰关联分析》,《统计与决策》第2期。
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[11]李京文,1998:《中国产业结构的变化与发展趋势》,《当代财经》第5期。
[12]李云娥,2008:《宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究》,《山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第3期。
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[14]罗光强、曾伟,2007:《产业结构变迁对经济增长波动的影响——以湖南省为例》,《工业技术经济》第11期。
[15]林毅夫,2011:《新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
[16]汪芳、赵玉林,2007:《我国高技术产业关联效应实证分析》,《经济问题探索》第1期。
[17]王庆安,2007:《美国战后新城镇开发建设及其启示》,《国际城市规划》第22期。
[18]武廷海、杨保军、张城国,2011:《中国新城1979-2009》,《城市与区域规划研究》第4期。
[19]殷凤,2011:《中国制造业与服务业双向溢出效应的实证分析》,《上海大学学报(社会科学版)》第1期。
[20]曾芬钰,2002:《城市化与产业结构优化》,《当代经济研究》第9期。
[21]张捷,2007:《新城运作机制的比较研究》,《国际城市规划》第22期。
[22]中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会报告,2012年11月。
[23]Black,D.,and Henderson J.V.,1999,A Theory of Urban Growth,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.107,pp.253-284.
[24]Lucas,R.E.,1988,On the Mechanics of Economic Development,Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.22,pp.4-45.
[25]Davis,J.,and Henderson J.V.,2003,Evidence on the Political Economy of the Urbanization Process,Journal of Urban Economics,Vol.53,pp.98-125.
[26]Henderson,V.,2003,The urbanization process and economic growth:the so-what question,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.8,pp.47-71.
[27]Peng,Y.,Shen L.Y.,Wu Y.Z.,and Zhang X.L.,2012,An Alternative Mmodel for Evaluating Sustainable Urbanization,Cities,Vol.29,pp.32-39.
[28]Hall,P.,1972,New town-the British Experience,The Town and Contory Planning Association by Charles Knight&Co.Ltd.London,pp.173-199.
[29]Chenery,H.,Robinson S.,and Syrquin M.,1986,Translation of Industrialization and Growth:A Comparative Study,Oxford University Press.
[30]Davis,J.,Henderson J.V.,and James C.,2003,Evidence on the Political Economy of the Urbanization Process,Journal of Urban Economics,Vol.53,pp.98-125.
[31]Black,D.,and Henderson V.,1999,A Theory of Urban Growth,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.107,pp.252-284.
[32]Murata,Y.,2002,Rural-urban Interdependence and Industrialization,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.68,pp.1-34.
[33]Brazel,A.J.,2002,Urban Sustainability in the Context of Global Change,Landscape and Urban Planning,Vol.58,pp.71-72.
[34]Moomaw,R.L.,and Shatter A.M.,1996,Urbanization and Economic Development:A Bias toward Large Cities,Journal of Urban Economics,Vol.40,pp.13-37.
[35]Henderson,J.V.,2000,The Effects of Urban Concentration on Economic Growth,NBER Working Paper,No.7503.
[36]Black,D.,and Henderson J.V.,1997,Urban Growth,Working Paper no.6008,Cambridge,Mass:NBER working paper series.
[37]Henderson,V.,2002,Urbanization in Developing Countries,World Bank Research Observer,Vol.17,pp.89-112.
[38]Kiss,E.,and Takeuchi A.,2002,Industrial Areas in Budapest Compared with Tokyo at the End of the 20th century,Geographical Review of Japan,Vol.75,pp.669-685.
[39]Bertinell,L.,and Stroble E.,2007,Urbanization,Urban Concentration and Economic Development,Urban Studies,Vol.44,pp.2499-2510.
[2]陈红霞、西宝,2008:《快速城市化背景下新城发展研究》,《哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版)》第10期。
[3]陈宪、黄建锋,2004:《分工、互动与融合:服务业与制造业关系演进的实证研究》,《中国软科学》第10期。
[4]方创琳:《改革开放30年来中国的城市化与城镇发展》,《经济地理》第1期。
[5]国家统计局课题组,2002:《我国城镇化战略研究》,《经济研究参考》第35期。
[6]郭克莎,1999:《总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路》,《经济研究》第9期。
[7]何晓春、任木荣、苏国强,2009:《房地产业与三次产业的灰关联分析》,《统计与决策》第2期。
[8]纪玉山、吴勇民,2006:《我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现》,《当代经济研究》第6期。
[9]江静、刘志彪、于明超,2007:《生产者服务业发展与制造业效率提升:基于地区和行业面板数据的经验分析》,《世界经济》第8期。
[10]库兹涅茨,1989:《现代经济增长》,中译本,北京经济学院出版社。
[11]李京文,1998:《中国产业结构的变化与发展趋势》,《当代财经》第5期。
[12]李云娥,2008:《宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究》,《山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》第3期。
[13]刘佳、朱桂龙,2012:《基于投入产出表的我国产业关联与产业结构演化分析》,《统计与决策》第2期。
[14]罗光强、曾伟,2007:《产业结构变迁对经济增长波动的影响——以湖南省为例》,《工业技术经济》第11期。
[15]林毅夫,2011:《新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架》,《经济学(季刊)》第1期。
[16]汪芳、赵玉林,2007:《我国高技术产业关联效应实证分析》,《经济问题探索》第1期。
[17]王庆安,2007:《美国战后新城镇开发建设及其启示》,《国际城市规划》第22期。
[18]武廷海、杨保军、张城国,2011:《中国新城1979-2009》,《城市与区域规划研究》第4期。
[19]殷凤,2011:《中国制造业与服务业双向溢出效应的实证分析》,《上海大学学报(社会科学版)》第1期。
[20]曾芬钰,2002:《城市化与产业结构优化》,《当代经济研究》第9期。
[21]张捷,2007:《新城运作机制的比较研究》,《国际城市规划》第22期。
[22]中国共产党第十八次全国代表大会报告,2012年11月。
[23]Black,D.,and Henderson J.V.,1999,A Theory of Urban Growth,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.107,pp.253-284.
[24]Lucas,R.E.,1988,On the Mechanics of Economic Development,Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.22,pp.4-45.
[25]Davis,J.,and Henderson J.V.,2003,Evidence on the Political Economy of the Urbanization Process,Journal of Urban Economics,Vol.53,pp.98-125.
[26]Henderson,V.,2003,The urbanization process and economic growth:the so-what question,Journal of Economic Growth,Vol.8,pp.47-71.
[27]Peng,Y.,Shen L.Y.,Wu Y.Z.,and Zhang X.L.,2012,An Alternative Mmodel for Evaluating Sustainable Urbanization,Cities,Vol.29,pp.32-39.
[28]Hall,P.,1972,New town-the British Experience,The Town and Contory Planning Association by Charles Knight&Co.Ltd.London,pp.173-199.
[29]Chenery,H.,Robinson S.,and Syrquin M.,1986,Translation of Industrialization and Growth:A Comparative Study,Oxford University Press.
[30]Davis,J.,Henderson J.V.,and James C.,2003,Evidence on the Political Economy of the Urbanization Process,Journal of Urban Economics,Vol.53,pp.98-125.
[31]Black,D.,and Henderson V.,1999,A Theory of Urban Growth,Journal of Political Economy,Vol.107,pp.252-284.
[32]Murata,Y.,2002,Rural-urban Interdependence and Industrialization,Journal of Development Economics,Vol.68,pp.1-34.
[33]Brazel,A.J.,2002,Urban Sustainability in the Context of Global Change,Landscape and Urban Planning,Vol.58,pp.71-72.
[34]Moomaw,R.L.,and Shatter A.M.,1996,Urbanization and Economic Development:A Bias toward Large Cities,Journal of Urban Economics,Vol.40,pp.13-37.
[35]Henderson,J.V.,2000,The Effects of Urban Concentration on Economic Growth,NBER Working Paper,No.7503.
[36]Black,D.,and Henderson J.V.,1997,Urban Growth,Working Paper no.6008,Cambridge,Mass:NBER working paper series.
[37]Henderson,V.,2002,Urbanization in Developing Countries,World Bank Research Observer,Vol.17,pp.89-112.
[38]Kiss,E.,and Takeuchi A.,2002,Industrial Areas in Budapest Compared with Tokyo at the End of the 20th century,Geographical Review of Japan,Vol.75,pp.669-685.
[39]Bertinell,L.,and Stroble E.,2007,Urbanization,Urban Concentration and Economic Development,Urban Studies,Vol.44,pp.2499-2510.