基于云重心评判法的海上交通安全态势评估模型
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摘要
海上交通安全态势评估可以帮助管理者找出安全隐患,做出科学决策,防止和减少事故的发生。本文针对我国海上交通安全形势日益严峻,而海上交通安全态势评估研究过少的现状,引入安全态势评估相关概念。根据态势评估三层功能构建海上交通安全态势评估的研究框架,并以此为出发点,在综合分析安全影响因素的基础上,建立海上交通安全态势评估指标体系,然后首次提出采用云重心评判法对海上交通安全态势进行评估。最后,结合实例验证了该方法在海上交通安全态势评估中的可行性和有效性。
An assessment of maritime traffic safety situation can help managers to identify potential safety hazards,make scientific decisions to prevent and reduce the occurrence of accidents.As for the situation of maritime traffic safety in China is becoming increasingly serious,and the situation of marine traffic safety assessment of the problem is poor,this paper introduces the relevant concepts of safety situation assessment,constructs the research framework based on the three-level assessment of situation assessment.And as a starting point,on the basis of comprehensive analyzing the safety influence factors,establishes the marine traffic safety situation assessment index system.And then put forward cloud gravity center evaluation method for the first time for assessment the situation of maritime traffic safety.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated by a case study on maritime traffic safety situation assessment.
An assessment of maritime traffic safety situation can help managers to identify potential safety hazards,make scientific decisions to prevent and reduce the occurrence of accidents.As for the situation of maritime traffic safety in China is becoming increasingly serious,and the situation of marine traffic safety assessment of the problem is poor,this paper introduces the relevant concepts of safety situation assessment,constructs the research framework based on the three-level assessment of situation assessment.And as a starting point,on the basis of comprehensive analyzing the safety influence factors,establishes the marine traffic safety situation assessment index system.And then put forward cloud gravity center evaluation method for the first time for assessment the situation of maritime traffic safety.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated by a case study on maritime traffic safety situation assessment.
引文
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[7]杜磊,文元桥,李正强,等.水上交通宏观态势评估模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2016(1):27-33.
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[12]覃德泽.云重心理论在网络安全风险评估中的应用[J].计算机仿真,2011,28(3):174-177.
[2]宋元,章新华.战场态势估计的理论体系研究[J].指挥控制与仿真,2004,26(1):43-47.
[3]徐雪艺,张国强,吕永波.城市交通低碳化发展策略研究[J].综合运输,2017(3):29-33.
[4]KUJALA P,Hanninen M,AROLA T,et al.Analysis of the marine traffic safety in the Gulf of Finland[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2009,94(8):1349-1357.
[5]胡甚平,方泉根,张锦朋,等.沿海水上交通安全的风险评估研究[J].中国航海,2010,33(1):50-55.
[6]张可,刘晓佳,王若琦.基于加权秩和比法的港口水域通航安全综合评价方法研究[J].蚌埠学院学报,2017,6(6):128-142.
[7]杜磊,文元桥,李正强,等.水上交通宏观态势评估模型[J].大连海事大学学报,2016(1):27-33.
[8]朱琳.城市快速路交通态势评估理论与方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2013.
[9]张成,石全,刘铁林.云重心评判法在目标毁伤效果评估中的应用[J].计算机仿真,2012,29(9):28-31.
[10]吴兆麟.船舶避碰与海上安全研究[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2006:366-411.
[11]吴兆麟,朱军.海上交通工程[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2004.
[12]覃德泽.云重心理论在网络安全风险评估中的应用[J].计算机仿真,2011,28(3):174-177.