1978—2016年中国经济增长动力与可持续性实证研究——一个扩展的索洛模型
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摘要
近年来,我国经济的增长由快速增长渐渐趋于平缓,中国经济进入中高速增长的新常态,新常态下要加快我国经济发展,需要深入分析我国经济可持续发展的动力机制。本文通过构建一个扩展的索洛模型对1978—2016年中国经济增长的动力要素进行实证分析,结果发现改革开放以来中国经济增长属于粗放型增长模式,并且固定资产投资、劳动力投入、资本体现式技术进步、制度变迁和工业化进程是推动中国经济增长的主要动力,但是目前这些传统动力要么存在问题,要么面临耗尽的风险。要克服传统经济增长模式存在的问题,需要寻找新的增长动力,进行整体规划。
In recent years,China's economic growth has gradually tended to be flattened by rapid growth. The Chinese economy has entered a new normal of medium-to-high-speed growth. To accelerate China's economic development under the new normal,it is necessary to analyze in depth the dynamic mechanism of China's sustainable economic development. This article builds an expanded Solow Model to analyze the motivation of China's growth from 1978 to 2016. The result shows that the mode of growth after reforming is still extensive,and that fixed asset investment,input of labor,capital-based technical progress,industrialization and institutional change are the main motivations of China's growth. However,these traditional motivations may cause serious problems or will soon be used up. To solve the problems and keep a moderate growth,we need to find new motivations of growth and formulate overall plan of developing China.
In recent years,China's economic growth has gradually tended to be flattened by rapid growth. The Chinese economy has entered a new normal of medium-to-high-speed growth. To accelerate China's economic development under the new normal,it is necessary to analyze in depth the dynamic mechanism of China's sustainable economic development. This article builds an expanded Solow Model to analyze the motivation of China's growth from 1978 to 2016. The result shows that the mode of growth after reforming is still extensive,and that fixed asset investment,input of labor,capital-based technical progress,industrialization and institutional change are the main motivations of China's growth. However,these traditional motivations may cause serious problems or will soon be used up. To solve the problems and keep a moderate growth,we need to find new motivations of growth and formulate overall plan of developing China.
引文
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[2]葛守昆,李慧.制度变迁、有效需求、环境保护与转型期中国经济增长[J].江海学刊,2010(1).
[3]朱贺.实证分析人力资本与中国经济增长的关系[J].生产力研究,2009(22).
[4]丰雷,魏丽,蒋妍.论土地要素对中国经济增长的贡献[J].中国土地科学,2008(12).
[5]封永刚,蒋雨彤,彭珏.中国经济增长动力分解:有偏技术进步与要素投入增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(9):39-56.
[6] Jiang Hai Zheng, Arne Bigsten, An Gang Hu.. Can China’s be Sustained? A Productivity Perspective[J].World Development,2009,37(4):874-888.
[7] Eswar. S. Prasad and Raghuram G. Rajan.. High Growth, Contrasting Stories:China, India, Russia,Modernizing China’s Growth Paradign[J]. The American Economic Review,2006,96(2):331-336.
[8]John Whalley,Xian Xin. China’s FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth[J]. China Economic Review,2010(21):123-135.
[9]金玉国.宏观制度变迁对中国转型时期经济增长的贡献[J].财经科学,2001(2).
[10]张平.改革开放30年中国经济增长与结构变革[J].现代经济探讨,2008(7).
[11]王化民,李角奇.我国经济增长方式转变的实证分析与对策研究[J].经济纵横,2010(7).
[12]王哲,杨桔.基于熵权法和Weaver-Thomas模型的战略性新兴产业评价与选择研究——以皖江城市带为例[J].科技管理研究,2015(20):84-90.
[13]张亨明.皖江城市带文化创意产业空间集聚推进模式研究[J].湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版),2015(4):109-114.
[14]朱子云.中国经济增长的动力转换与政策选择[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017(3):3-20.
[15]高寒松.中国社会总资产规模与结构变动分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2001(4).