“十三五”期间山东省海参养殖产量预测与发展前瞻
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摘要
文章利用H-P滤波法分析了山东省海参养殖资源的开发历程,并建立多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)预测了山东省"十三五期间"的海参养殖产量。预测结果表明,山东省的海参养殖业在"十三五"期间将整体转向生产萎缩阶段,全省海参养殖业发展面临严峻挑战。为了确保山东省海参养殖业的持续高效发展,未来实践中应切实保障海参养殖空间,科学规划海参养殖空间布局,提升海参养殖科技支撑能力,推广生态健康型海参养殖模式,加强海参养殖技能培训和技术推广,同时做大做强海参消费市场,加强海参养殖业行政执法能力建设,并建立健全海参养殖业保险机制。
This paper used the H-P filter method to analyze the developing history of sea cucumber aquaculture and established the multivariable grey model of MGM(1,n)to predict the yield of sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province.The prediction results showed that the sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province will shift to the phase of production shrink in the"13 th FiveYear Plan"period,and the development of the sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province will be faced with severe challenges.In order to ensure the sustainable and efficient development of the sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province,it is necessary to effectively protect the sea cucumber breeding space,scientifically plan the spatial layout of sea cucumber aquaculture,enhance scientific and technological supporting capacity of sea cucumber breeding,promote the ecohealthy breeding mode of sea cucumber,strengthen the training and technology promotion of seacucumber breeding,fully tap the demand potential of sea cucumbers,enlarge and strengthen the sea cucumber consumption market,strengthen the administration and law enforcement capacity of the sea cucumber aquaculture,establish and improve the insurance mechanism for the sea cucumber aquaculture in practice.
This paper used the H-P filter method to analyze the developing history of sea cucumber aquaculture and established the multivariable grey model of MGM(1,n)to predict the yield of sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province.The prediction results showed that the sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province will shift to the phase of production shrink in the"13 th FiveYear Plan"period,and the development of the sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province will be faced with severe challenges.In order to ensure the sustainable and efficient development of the sea cucumber aquaculture in Shandong province,it is necessary to effectively protect the sea cucumber breeding space,scientifically plan the spatial layout of sea cucumber aquaculture,enhance scientific and technological supporting capacity of sea cucumber breeding,promote the ecohealthy breeding mode of sea cucumber,strengthen the training and technology promotion of seacucumber breeding,fully tap the demand potential of sea cucumbers,enlarge and strengthen the sea cucumber consumption market,strengthen the administration and law enforcement capacity of the sea cucumber aquaculture,establish and improve the insurance mechanism for the sea cucumber aquaculture in practice.
引文
[1]张宝琳,孙道元,吴耀泉.灵山岛浅海岩礁区刺参食性初步分析[J].海洋科学,1995(3):11-13.
[2]李成林,宋爱环,胡炜,等.山东省刺参养殖产业现状分析与可持续发展对策[J].渔业科学进展,2010,31(4):126-133.
[3]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:60.
[4]翟军,盛建明,冯英浚.MGM(1,n)灰色模型及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997(5):110-114.
[5]陈相东,王彬.多因素灰色预测模型及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(1):80-83.
[6]王春超,王丽萍,曹云慧,等.改进多变量灰色模型在城市用水量预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(2):27-29.
(1)假设Ct与Δ2Xt都是独立同分布且相互独立,则当λ=var(Ct)/var(Δ2Xt)时,H-P滤波达到最佳效果。通常情况下,当使用年度数据时,λ=100;当使用季度数据时,λ=1600;当使用月度数据时,λ=14400。
(1)截至目前,山东省海参养殖面积和海参苗种数量的统计数据始于2003年,全省海参产业最新的统计数据则是2016年度数据。为了从整体上宏观把握“十三五”期间山东省海参产业的发展趋势,本研究在使用MGM(1,n)模型预测山东省海参养殖产量时所用数据选取的年份为2003—2015年。同时,为了验证预测数值的准确程度,后文将对2016年的山东省海参养殖实际产量和预测产量进行比较分析。
[2]李成林,宋爱环,胡炜,等.山东省刺参养殖产业现状分析与可持续发展对策[J].渔业科学进展,2010,31(4):126-133.
[3]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006:60.
[4]翟军,盛建明,冯英浚.MGM(1,n)灰色模型及应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997(5):110-114.
[5]陈相东,王彬.多因素灰色预测模型及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(1):80-83.
[6]王春超,王丽萍,曹云慧,等.改进多变量灰色模型在城市用水量预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(2):27-29.
(1)假设Ct与Δ2Xt都是独立同分布且相互独立,则当λ=var(Ct)/var(Δ2Xt)时,H-P滤波达到最佳效果。通常情况下,当使用年度数据时,λ=100;当使用季度数据时,λ=1600;当使用月度数据时,λ=14400。
(1)截至目前,山东省海参养殖面积和海参苗种数量的统计数据始于2003年,全省海参产业最新的统计数据则是2016年度数据。为了从整体上宏观把握“十三五”期间山东省海参产业的发展趋势,本研究在使用MGM(1,n)模型预测山东省海参养殖产量时所用数据选取的年份为2003—2015年。同时,为了验证预测数值的准确程度,后文将对2016年的山东省海参养殖实际产量和预测产量进行比较分析。