全球高分辨率气候系统模式研究进展
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摘要
气候模式是定量研究气候演变规律、预测或预估未来气候变化的重要工具。提高气候模式空间分辨率并改进相应的物理参数化过程,是改善模式性能的重要途径之一,对于认识气候变化规律、提高气候预测能力具有重要作用。在阐述发展全球高分辨率气候系统模式重要性的基础上,对当今国内外高分辨率气候系统模式的研究进展进行总结,介绍全球高分辨率气候系统模式研发和评估的现状及其存在的问题,并着重讨论了制约当前高分辨率气候系统模式发展的关键科学问题和技术瓶颈,其中包括高分辨率海洋和大气模式动力框架的研制和大规模高性能并行计算、次网格物理参数化过程的改进,以及中尺度海气相互作用等。同时,还介绍了国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段中的高分辨率模式比较子计划的科学目标及其试验设计方案。最后对未来我国全球高分辨率气候系统模式的发展和评估进行了展望。
Climate models have been used as an important tool to quantitatively study climate variability and to predict or project climate change in the future. One of the most important pathways for development and improvement of climate system model is to increase the spatial resolution and improve the corresponding physical parameterization schemes,which is very important for understanding climate change and improving climate prediction skill.Based on a brief introduction of the importance of developing high-resolution global climate system model,a review of recent progresses in the development and application of high-resolution models was summarized. The paper also introduced the current situation and problems for the development and evaluation of high-resolution models and focused on the key scientific and technical bottlenecks which restrict the development of high-resolution models,including the development of dynamic framework of the high-resolution ocean and atmospheric models and massive high performance parallel computing,the improvement of the sub-grid physical parameterization scheme,and mesoscale air-sea interaction. Meanwhile,the scientific objects and experiments design of the international high resolution climate model intercomparison project( HiRes MIP) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6( CMIP6) was introduced. Finally,we prospect the future developments and evaluations of high-resolution climate models in China was proposed.
Climate models have been used as an important tool to quantitatively study climate variability and to predict or project climate change in the future. One of the most important pathways for development and improvement of climate system model is to increase the spatial resolution and improve the corresponding physical parameterization schemes,which is very important for understanding climate change and improving climate prediction skill.Based on a brief introduction of the importance of developing high-resolution global climate system model,a review of recent progresses in the development and application of high-resolution models was summarized. The paper also introduced the current situation and problems for the development and evaluation of high-resolution models and focused on the key scientific and technical bottlenecks which restrict the development of high-resolution models,including the development of dynamic framework of the high-resolution ocean and atmospheric models and massive high performance parallel computing,the improvement of the sub-grid physical parameterization scheme,and mesoscale air-sea interaction. Meanwhile,the scientific objects and experiments design of the international high resolution climate model intercomparison project( HiRes MIP) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6( CMIP6) was introduced. Finally,we prospect the future developments and evaluations of high-resolution climate models in China was proposed.
引文
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(1)个人通讯
(1)个人通讯
[2]Wang Xiaoqing,Liu Jian,Wang Zhiyuan.Comparison of simulated and reconstructed temperature in China during the past 2000years[J].Advances in Earth Science,2015,30(12):1 318-1 327.[王晓青,刘健,王志远.过去2000年中国区域温度模拟与重建的对比分析[J].地球科学进展,2015,30(12):1 318-1 327.]
[3]Randall D,Khairoutdinov M,Arakawa A,et al.Breaking the cloud parameterization deadlock[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2003,84(11):1 547-1 564,doi:10.1175/BAMS-84-11-1547.
[4]Bennartz R,Lauer A,Brenguier J L.Scale-aware integral constraints on autoconversion and accretion in regional and global climate models[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38(10),doi:10.1029/2011GL047618.
[5]Masumoto Y,Sasaki H,Kagimoto T,et al.A fifty-year eddy-resolving simulation of the world ocean-Preliminary outcomes of OFES(OGCM for the Earth Simulator)[J].Journal of the Earth Simulator,2004,1:35-56.
[6]Maltrud M,Mc Clean J L.An eddy resolving global 1/10 degree ocean simulation[J].Ocean Modelling,2005,8:31-54,doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.001.
[7]Thoppil P G,Richman J G,Hogan P J.Energetics of a global ocean circulation model compared to observations[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2011,38,doi:10.1029/2011GL048347.
[8]Fang G H,Wang Y G,Wei Z X,et al.Interocean circulation and heat and freshwater budgets of the South China Sea based on a numerical model[J].Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,2009,47(1/3):55-72.
[9]Xu D Z,Zhu J,Qi Y Q,et al.The impact of mean dynamic topography on a sea-level anomaly assimilation in the South China Sea based on an eddy-resolving model[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2012,31(5):11-25.
[10]Smedstad O M,Hurlburt H E,Metzger E J,et al.An operational eddy resolving 1/16 degrees global ocean nowcast/forecast system[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2003,40:341-361.
[11]Shriver J F,Hurlburt H E,Smedstad O M,et al.1/32°realtime global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16°resolution[J].Journal of Marine Systems,2007,65:3-26,doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2005.11.021.
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[14]Jin X Z,Zhang X H,Zhou T J.Fundamental framework and experiments of the third generation of IAP/LASG world ocean general circulation model[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1999,16(2):197-215.
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[16]Liu H L,Lin P F,Yu Y Q,et al.The baseline evaluation of LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM)version 2.0[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,26(3):318-329.
[17]Yu Y Q,Liu H L,Lin P F.A quasi-global 1/10°eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model and its preliminary results[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2012,57(30):3 908-3 916,doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5234-8.
[18]Feng X,Liu H,Wang F,et al.Indonesian throughflow in an eddy-resolving ocean model[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2013,58(35):4 504-4 514,doi:10.1007/s11434-013-5988-7.
[19]Satoh M,Matsuno T,Tomita H,et al.Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model(NICAM)for global cloud resolving simulations[J].Journal of Computational Physics,2008,227(7):3 486-3 514.
[20]Miura H,Satoh M,Nasuno T,et al.A Madden-Julian oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model[J].Science,2007,318(5 857):1 763-1 765,doi:10.1126/science.1148443.
[21]Miyakawa T,Satoh M,Miura H,et al.Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer[J].Nature Communications,2014,5:3 769,doi:10.1038/Ncomms4769.
[22]Satoh M,Oouchi K,Nasuno T,et al.The intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models[J].Climate Dynamics,2012,39(9):2 185-2 206.
[23]Yamada Y,Satoh M.Response of ice and liquid water paths of tropical cyclones to global warming simulated by a global nonhydrostatic model with explicit cloud microphysics[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26:9 931-9 945,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00182.1.
[24]Miyamoto Y,Satoh M,Tomita H,et al.Gradient wind balance in tropical cyclones in high-resolution global experiments[J].Monthly Weather Review,2014,142:1 908-1 926.
[25]Oouchi K,Noda A T,Satoh M,et al.Asian summer monsoon simulated by a global cloud-system-resolving model:Diurnal to intra-seasonal variability[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(11):L11815,doi:10.1029/2009GL038271.
[26]Rajendran K,Kitoh A,Srinivasan J,et al.Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM[J].Theoretical Applied Climatology,2012,110(4):555-571.
[27]Kodama C,Yamada Y,Noda A T,et al.A 20-year climatology of a NICAM AMIP-type simulation[J].Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan,2015,93(4):393-424.
[28]Gadgil S,Sajani S.Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs[J].Climate Dynamics,1998,14(9):659-689.
[29]Lau K H,Kim J H,Sud Y.Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in AMIP GCMs[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1996,77:2 209-2 227.
[30]Xie Shangping,Xu Haiming,Saji N H,et al.Role of Narrow Mountains in large-scale organization of Asian Monsoon convection[J].Journal of Climate,2006,19:3 420-3 429.
[31]Shao Xie,Huang Ping,Huang Ronghui.A review of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[J].Advances in Earth Science,2014,29(10):1 126-1 137.[邵勰,黄平,黄荣辉.南海夏季风爆发的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2014,29(10):1 126-1 137.]
[32]Li Jian Ping,Zhang Li.Wind onset and withdrawal of Asian summer monsoon and their simulated performance in AMIP models[J].Climate Dynamics,2009,32(7/8):935-968.
[33]Sperber K,Annamalai H,Kang I,et al.The Asian summer monsoon:An intercomparison of CMIP5 vs.CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century[J].Climate Dynamics,2013,41(9/10):2 711-2 744.
[34]Kajikawa Y,Yamaura T,Tomita H,et al.Impact of tropical disturbance on the Indian summer monsoon onset simulated by a global cloud-system-resolving model[J].SOLA,2015,11:80-84.
[35]Sato T,Miura H,Satoh M,et al.Diurnal cycle of precipitation in the tropics simulated in a Global Cloud-Resolving Model[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(18):4 809-4 826.
[36]Lin S J,Rood R B.Multidimensional flux from semi-Lagrangian transport schemes[J].Monthly Weather Review,1996,124:2 046-2 070.
[37]Gall J S,Ginis I,Lin S J,et al.Experimental tropical cyclone prediction using the GFDL 25-km-resolution global atmospheric model[J].Weather and Forecasting,2011,26(6):1 008-1 019.
[38]Chen J H,Lin S J.Seasonal predictions of tropical cyclones using a 25-km-resolution general circulation model[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(2):380-398,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00061.1.
[39]Evans K J,Lauritzen P H,Mishra S K,et al.AMIP simulation with the CAM4 spectral element dynamical core[J].Journal of Climate,2013,26(3):689-709,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00448.1.
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