产业结构演进对海洋渔业经济波动的影响
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摘要
结构调整与经济波动是经济学研究的重要内容,厘清结构调整与经济波动的关系对深入推进供给侧结构性改革具有重要意义。本文从产业结构视角分析了中国海洋渔业经济波动的引发动力,并采用动态面板模型检验判断了海洋渔业产业结构演进是熨平还是放大了海洋渔业经济波动。结果显示:(1)海洋渔业产业结构演进能引起海洋渔业经济波动,不同海洋渔业产业结构形态影响海洋渔业经济波动的差异明显;(2)海洋渔业产业结构高级化、加工系数影响海洋渔业经济波动的"杠杆效应"明显,且高级化的放大效果更加显著;(3)海洋渔业产业结构合理化、软化与养捕结构对海洋渔业经济波动影响的"熨平效应"显著,且合理化的抑制效果要高于养捕结构,但低于产业结构软化。为平稳推进海洋渔业供给侧结构性改革,本文认为在推进产业结构高级化过程中,要注重产业结构合理化、软化对海洋渔业经济波动的熨平作用。
The structural adjustment and economic fluctuation is an important research content of economics. Clarifying the relationship between structural adjustment and economic fluctuations plays an important role in deepening the supply-side structural reform. To consolidate the fundamental status of the marine fishery economy, this current study analyzed the driving force of marine fishery economic fluctuation from the perspective of industrial structure according to industrial structure theory and used dynamic panel model to judge whether the evolution of marine fishery industry structure is ironing or amplifying the economic fluctuation of marine fishery. The research results showed that:(1) The evolution of marine fishery industry structure could cause economic fluctuations The differences in the economic fluctuations of marine fisheries affected by different marine fishery industry structures were obvious.(2) The "leverage effect" from the marine fishery industry structure advanced and processing coefficient was obvious. The amplification effect of the advanced industrial structure of marine fishery industry was more significant than processing coefficient.(3) The"ironing effect"of the rationalization, softening,and catching structure of marine fisheries on the economic fluctuation of marine fisheries was significant. The suppression effect of industrial structure rationalization of marine fishery industry was higher than that of the catching structure, but lower than the softening of industrial structure. In order to realize the steady advancement of the structural reform of the supply-side of marine fishery and promote the high quality development of marine fisheries economy, it is essential to promote the advanced industrial structure. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the ironing effect of the rationalization and softening of industrial structure on the economic fluctuation of marine fishery.
The structural adjustment and economic fluctuation is an important research content of economics. Clarifying the relationship between structural adjustment and economic fluctuations plays an important role in deepening the supply-side structural reform. To consolidate the fundamental status of the marine fishery economy, this current study analyzed the driving force of marine fishery economic fluctuation from the perspective of industrial structure according to industrial structure theory and used dynamic panel model to judge whether the evolution of marine fishery industry structure is ironing or amplifying the economic fluctuation of marine fishery. The research results showed that:(1) The evolution of marine fishery industry structure could cause economic fluctuations The differences in the economic fluctuations of marine fisheries affected by different marine fishery industry structures were obvious.(2) The "leverage effect" from the marine fishery industry structure advanced and processing coefficient was obvious. The amplification effect of the advanced industrial structure of marine fishery industry was more significant than processing coefficient.(3) The"ironing effect"of the rationalization, softening,and catching structure of marine fisheries on the economic fluctuation of marine fisheries was significant. The suppression effect of industrial structure rationalization of marine fishery industry was higher than that of the catching structure, but lower than the softening of industrial structure. In order to realize the steady advancement of the structural reform of the supply-side of marine fishery and promote the high quality development of marine fisheries economy, it is essential to promote the advanced industrial structure. It is also necessary to pay more attention to the ironing effect of the rationalization and softening of industrial structure on the economic fluctuation of marine fishery.
引文
[1]韩立民.我国海洋事业发展中的“蓝色粮仓”战略研究[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2018.[Han L M.Research on the“Blue Granary”Strategy in the Development of China’s Marine Industry[M].Beijing:Economic Science Press,2018.]
[2]农业部渔业渔政管理局.2017中国渔业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2017.[Fisheries and Fisheries Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture.2017 China Fisheries Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2017.]
[3]Burns A.Progress towards economic stability[J].American Economic Review,1960,50(1):1-19.
[4]Kuznets S S.Economic Growth of Nation:Total Output and Production Structure[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1971.
[5]Blanchard O,Simon J.The long and large decline in US output volatility[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2001,(1):135-164.
[6]Stock J H,Watson M W.Has the business cycle changed and why?[J].NBER Macroeconomics Annual,2002,17(1):159-230.
[7]Eggers A,Loannides Y.The role of output composition in the stabilization of US output growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28(3):585-595.
[8]Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth:The anatomy of urban crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[9]Peneder M.Industrial structure and aggregate growth[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2003,14(4):427-448.
[10]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,(5):4-16.[Gan C H,Zheng R G,Yu D F.The impact of China's industrial structure changes on economic growth and fluctuations[J].Economic Research,2011,(5):4-16.]
[11]方福前,詹新宇.我国产业结构升级对经济波动的熨平效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,(9):5-16.[Fang F Q,Zhan XY.Analysis of the ironing effect of industrial structure upgrading on economic fluctuation in China[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2011,(9):5-16.]
[12]彭冲,李春风,李玉双.产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2013,(3):91-100.[Peng C,Li C F,Li Y S.Research on the dynamic impact of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation[J].Industrial Economics Research,2013,(3):91-100.]
[13]张东辉,宋锋华.产业结构变动与经济波动相互关系的动态分析[J].广西财经学院学报,2015,(4):22-29.[Zhang D H,Song FH.Dynamic analysis of the relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation[J].Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,2015,(4):22-29.]
[14]钱士春.中国宏观经济波动实证分析:1952-2002[J].统计研究,2004,(4):12-16.[Qian S C.Empirical analysis of China's macroeconomic fluctuation:1952-2002[J].Statistical Research,2004,(4):12-16.]
[15]孙广生.经济波动与产业波动(1986-2003)-相关性、特征及推动因素的步研究[J].中国社会科学,2006,(3):62-73.[Sun G S.Economic fluctuation and industrial fluctuation(1986-2003)-Steps of relevance,characteristics and driving factors[J].Chinese Social Sciences,2006,(3):62-73.]
[16]罗光强,曾伟.产业结构变迁对经济增长波动的影响-以湖南为例[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(11):56-63.[Luo G Q,Zeng W.The influence of industrial structure change on economic growth fluctuation-Hunan as an example[J].Industrial Technology&Economy,2007,26(11):56-63.]
[17]李云娥.宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,(3):120-126.[Li Y E.Empirical study on macroeconomic fluctuation and industrial structure change[J].Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2008,(3):120-126.]
[18]苏昕.中国渔业产业结构的协调性研究[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(5):100-103.[Su X.Research on the coordination of China's fishery industry structure[J].Agricultural Economic Issues,2009,30(5):100-103.]
[19]杨林,苏昕.产业生态学视角下海洋渔业产业结构优化升级的目标与实施路径研究[J].农业经济问题,2010,31(10):99-105.[Yang L,Su X.Research on the goal and implementation path of marine fishery industry structure optimization and upgrading from the perspective of industrial ecology[J].Journal of Agricultural Economics,2010,31(10):99-105.]
[20]杨正勇,朱晓莉.论渔业经济增长方式从线性到循环的转变[J].太平洋学报,2007,(4):87-94.[Yang Z Y,Zhu X L.On the transition of fishery economic growth mode from linear to cyclical[J].Journal of Pacific,2007,(4):87-94.]
[21]闫芳芳,平瑛.消费需求结构与产业结构关系的实证研究-以中国渔业为例[J].中国农学通报,2013,(17):57-61.[Yan F F,Ping Y.An empirical study on the relationship between consumer demand structure and industrial structure-Taking Chinese fisheries as an example[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,(17):57-61.]
[22]史磊.我国渔业经济增长方式转变问题研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.[Shi L.Research on the transformation of fisheries economic growth mode in China[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2009.]
[23]闫莹,江书平,李维国.京津冀协同发展背景下渔业产业结构升级与路径选择-以河北省海洋渔业产业经济为例[J].河北农业大学学报(农林教育版),2016,18(2):26-29.[Yan Y,Jiang S P,Li W G.The upgrading of fishery industry structure and path selection under the background of coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei-a case study of marine fishery industry economy in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Hebei Agricultural University,2016,18(2):26-29.
[24]于谨凯,朱小苏.基于偏离份额模型的山东半岛蓝区海洋渔业产业结构演进分析[J].河北渔业,2015,(2):47-52.[Yu J K,Zhu X S.Analysis of the evolution of marine fishery industry structure in the blue area of Shandong peninsula based on the deviation share model[J].Hebei Fisheries,2015,(2):47-52.]
[25]丁振辉,张猛.日本产业结构变动对经济波动的影响:熨平还是放大?[J].世界经济研究,2013,(1):74-79.[Ding Z H,Zhang M.Impact of changes in industrial structure in Japan on economic fluctuations:Ironing or enlargement?[J].World Economic Research,2013,(1):74-79.]
[26]Frank M W.Income Inequality and Economic Growth in the U.S.:A Panel Cointegration Approach[R].Business Working Paper No.SHSU_ECO_WP05-03,2005.
[27]Baum C F,Schaffer M E,Stillman S.Enhanced routines for instrumental variables generalized method of moments estimation and testing[J].Stata Journal,2007,7(4):465-506.
[28]黄中伟,陈刚.我国产业结构合理化理论研究综述[J].经济纵横,2003,(3):56-58.[Huang Z W,Chen G.A summary of China's industrial structure rationalization theory research[J].Economic Aspects,2003,(3):56-58.]
[29]王晓明.山东省海洋产业结构合理化水平测评研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2011.[Wang X M.Research on the Evaluation of the Rationalization Level of Marine Industry Structure in Shandong Province[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2011.]
[30]王然.中部地区农业产业结构软化的度量与分析[J].统计与决策,2013,(1):99-101.[Wang R.Measurement and analysis of the softening of agricultural industry structure in central China[J].Statistics&Decision,2013,(1):99-101.]
[31]谢兰云.创新、产业结构与经济增长的门槛效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(2):51-59.[Xie L Y.Analysis of the threshold effect of innovation,industrial structure and economic growth[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2015,35(2):51-59.]
[32]王波,韩立民.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响-基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1182-1193.[Wang B,Han L M.The impact of China's marine industry structure change on marine economic growth:Based on the regression analysis of panel threshold effects in 11Provinces and Cities along the coast[J].Resource Science,2017,39(6):1182-1193.]
[33]Yao S J,Zhang Z Y.On regional inequality and diverging clubs:Acase study of contemporary China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(3):466-484.
[34]王继祥,韦开蕾,张文静.海南农业经济增长影响因素的实证分析[J].热带农业科学,2012,(1):74-77.[Wang J X,Wei K L,Zhang W J.Empirical analysis of factors affecting agricultural economic growth in Hainan[J].Tropical Agricultural Sciences,2012,(1):74-77.]
[35]农业部渔业渔政管理局.2016中国渔业年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2016.[Fisheries and Fisheries Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture.2016 China fisheries yearbook[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2016.]
1)在本节中海洋渔业产业结构合理化是采用产业结构熵测量的,合理化(srationalize)值越大,海洋渔业产业结构越合理,反之,海洋渔业产业结构不合理。
[2]农业部渔业渔政管理局.2017中国渔业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2017.[Fisheries and Fisheries Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture.2017 China Fisheries Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2017.]
[3]Burns A.Progress towards economic stability[J].American Economic Review,1960,50(1):1-19.
[4]Kuznets S S.Economic Growth of Nation:Total Output and Production Structure[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1971.
[5]Blanchard O,Simon J.The long and large decline in US output volatility[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2001,(1):135-164.
[6]Stock J H,Watson M W.Has the business cycle changed and why?[J].NBER Macroeconomics Annual,2002,17(1):159-230.
[7]Eggers A,Loannides Y.The role of output composition in the stabilization of US output growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28(3):585-595.
[8]Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth:The anatomy of urban crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[9]Peneder M.Industrial structure and aggregate growth[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2003,14(4):427-448.
[10]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,(5):4-16.[Gan C H,Zheng R G,Yu D F.The impact of China's industrial structure changes on economic growth and fluctuations[J].Economic Research,2011,(5):4-16.]
[11]方福前,詹新宇.我国产业结构升级对经济波动的熨平效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2011,(9):5-16.[Fang F Q,Zhan XY.Analysis of the ironing effect of industrial structure upgrading on economic fluctuation in China[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2011,(9):5-16.]
[12]彭冲,李春风,李玉双.产业结构变迁对经济波动的动态影响研究[J].产业经济研究,2013,(3):91-100.[Peng C,Li C F,Li Y S.Research on the dynamic impact of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation[J].Industrial Economics Research,2013,(3):91-100.]
[13]张东辉,宋锋华.产业结构变动与经济波动相互关系的动态分析[J].广西财经学院学报,2015,(4):22-29.[Zhang D H,Song FH.Dynamic analysis of the relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation[J].Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,2015,(4):22-29.]
[14]钱士春.中国宏观经济波动实证分析:1952-2002[J].统计研究,2004,(4):12-16.[Qian S C.Empirical analysis of China's macroeconomic fluctuation:1952-2002[J].Statistical Research,2004,(4):12-16.]
[15]孙广生.经济波动与产业波动(1986-2003)-相关性、特征及推动因素的步研究[J].中国社会科学,2006,(3):62-73.[Sun G S.Economic fluctuation and industrial fluctuation(1986-2003)-Steps of relevance,characteristics and driving factors[J].Chinese Social Sciences,2006,(3):62-73.]
[16]罗光强,曾伟.产业结构变迁对经济增长波动的影响-以湖南为例[J].工业技术经济,2007,26(11):56-63.[Luo G Q,Zeng W.The influence of industrial structure change on economic growth fluctuation-Hunan as an example[J].Industrial Technology&Economy,2007,26(11):56-63.]
[17]李云娥.宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,(3):120-126.[Li Y E.Empirical study on macroeconomic fluctuation and industrial structure change[J].Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences),2008,(3):120-126.]
[18]苏昕.中国渔业产业结构的协调性研究[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(5):100-103.[Su X.Research on the coordination of China's fishery industry structure[J].Agricultural Economic Issues,2009,30(5):100-103.]
[19]杨林,苏昕.产业生态学视角下海洋渔业产业结构优化升级的目标与实施路径研究[J].农业经济问题,2010,31(10):99-105.[Yang L,Su X.Research on the goal and implementation path of marine fishery industry structure optimization and upgrading from the perspective of industrial ecology[J].Journal of Agricultural Economics,2010,31(10):99-105.]
[20]杨正勇,朱晓莉.论渔业经济增长方式从线性到循环的转变[J].太平洋学报,2007,(4):87-94.[Yang Z Y,Zhu X L.On the transition of fishery economic growth mode from linear to cyclical[J].Journal of Pacific,2007,(4):87-94.]
[21]闫芳芳,平瑛.消费需求结构与产业结构关系的实证研究-以中国渔业为例[J].中国农学通报,2013,(17):57-61.[Yan F F,Ping Y.An empirical study on the relationship between consumer demand structure and industrial structure-Taking Chinese fisheries as an example[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,(17):57-61.]
[22]史磊.我国渔业经济增长方式转变问题研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.[Shi L.Research on the transformation of fisheries economic growth mode in China[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2009.]
[23]闫莹,江书平,李维国.京津冀协同发展背景下渔业产业结构升级与路径选择-以河北省海洋渔业产业经济为例[J].河北农业大学学报(农林教育版),2016,18(2):26-29.[Yan Y,Jiang S P,Li W G.The upgrading of fishery industry structure and path selection under the background of coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei-a case study of marine fishery industry economy in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Hebei Agricultural University,2016,18(2):26-29.
[24]于谨凯,朱小苏.基于偏离份额模型的山东半岛蓝区海洋渔业产业结构演进分析[J].河北渔业,2015,(2):47-52.[Yu J K,Zhu X S.Analysis of the evolution of marine fishery industry structure in the blue area of Shandong peninsula based on the deviation share model[J].Hebei Fisheries,2015,(2):47-52.]
[25]丁振辉,张猛.日本产业结构变动对经济波动的影响:熨平还是放大?[J].世界经济研究,2013,(1):74-79.[Ding Z H,Zhang M.Impact of changes in industrial structure in Japan on economic fluctuations:Ironing or enlargement?[J].World Economic Research,2013,(1):74-79.]
[26]Frank M W.Income Inequality and Economic Growth in the U.S.:A Panel Cointegration Approach[R].Business Working Paper No.SHSU_ECO_WP05-03,2005.
[27]Baum C F,Schaffer M E,Stillman S.Enhanced routines for instrumental variables generalized method of moments estimation and testing[J].Stata Journal,2007,7(4):465-506.
[28]黄中伟,陈刚.我国产业结构合理化理论研究综述[J].经济纵横,2003,(3):56-58.[Huang Z W,Chen G.A summary of China's industrial structure rationalization theory research[J].Economic Aspects,2003,(3):56-58.]
[29]王晓明.山东省海洋产业结构合理化水平测评研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2011.[Wang X M.Research on the Evaluation of the Rationalization Level of Marine Industry Structure in Shandong Province[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2011.]
[30]王然.中部地区农业产业结构软化的度量与分析[J].统计与决策,2013,(1):99-101.[Wang R.Measurement and analysis of the softening of agricultural industry structure in central China[J].Statistics&Decision,2013,(1):99-101.]
[31]谢兰云.创新、产业结构与经济增长的门槛效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(2):51-59.[Xie L Y.Analysis of the threshold effect of innovation,industrial structure and economic growth[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2015,35(2):51-59.]
[32]王波,韩立民.中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响-基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析[J].资源科学,2017,39(6):1182-1193.[Wang B,Han L M.The impact of China's marine industry structure change on marine economic growth:Based on the regression analysis of panel threshold effects in 11Provinces and Cities along the coast[J].Resource Science,2017,39(6):1182-1193.]
[33]Yao S J,Zhang Z Y.On regional inequality and diverging clubs:Acase study of contemporary China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2001,29(3):466-484.
[34]王继祥,韦开蕾,张文静.海南农业经济增长影响因素的实证分析[J].热带农业科学,2012,(1):74-77.[Wang J X,Wei K L,Zhang W J.Empirical analysis of factors affecting agricultural economic growth in Hainan[J].Tropical Agricultural Sciences,2012,(1):74-77.]
[35]农业部渔业渔政管理局.2016中国渔业年鉴[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2016.[Fisheries and Fisheries Administration of the Ministry of Agriculture.2016 China fisheries yearbook[M].Beijing:China Agriculture Press,2016.]
1)在本节中海洋渔业产业结构合理化是采用产业结构熵测量的,合理化(srationalize)值越大,海洋渔业产业结构越合理,反之,海洋渔业产业结构不合理。