环渤海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性评价
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摘要
基于海洋经济系统与脆弱性内涵,提出海洋经济系统脆弱性概念,并对海洋经济系统脆弱性发生机制及属性特征进行分析。在此基础上建立以胁迫性、敏感性、弹性、适应性为基础的指标体系。鉴于海洋经济系统脆弱性评价具有模糊性,选用基于信息扩散技术的模糊综合评价方法对2000—2015年环渤海17个沿海城市进行评价,最后运用核密度估计以及信息可视化技术对环渤海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性进行时空分异分析。结果表明:①环渤海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性的整体水平及差距逐渐减小,并呈现由快到慢变化的阶段性现象。②环渤海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性时空演变脉络清晰,驱动因素差异明显。其中,大连脆弱性有所增加,青岛、威海降幅较为突出,营口、锦州、葫芦岛、沧州、潍坊未发生明显变化,其余9市均得到缓解。
Based on the understanding of marine economic system and vulnerability, this article proposes the concept of vulnerability of marine economic system and analyzes the occurrence and attribute characteristics of vulnerability of marine economic system. On this basis, it establishes an index system based on the pressure, sensitivity, elasticity and adaptability aspects, and evaluates the vulnerability of marine economic system of the 17 coastal cities in Bohai Sea from2000 to 2015 utilizing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which is based on the information diffusion technology.Finally, this paper analyzes its spatial and temporal diversity by kernel density estimation and information visualization technology. The results of the study indicate that the overall level and gap of the vulnerability of marine economic system in the 17 coastal cities of Bohai Rim region gradually decrease and its change rate is from fast to slow. From 2000 to2015, spatiotemporal evolution path of the vulnerability of marine economic system is clear, and the driving factors are obviously different. Among 17 coastal cities, the vulnerability of Dalian has increased; the vulnerability of Qingdao,Weihai has a big drop; the vulnerability of Yingkou, Jingzhou, Huludao, Cangzhou, Weifang has no significant change;and the other 9 cities are alleviated.
Based on the understanding of marine economic system and vulnerability, this article proposes the concept of vulnerability of marine economic system and analyzes the occurrence and attribute characteristics of vulnerability of marine economic system. On this basis, it establishes an index system based on the pressure, sensitivity, elasticity and adaptability aspects, and evaluates the vulnerability of marine economic system of the 17 coastal cities in Bohai Sea from2000 to 2015 utilizing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method which is based on the information diffusion technology.Finally, this paper analyzes its spatial and temporal diversity by kernel density estimation and information visualization technology. The results of the study indicate that the overall level and gap of the vulnerability of marine economic system in the 17 coastal cities of Bohai Rim region gradually decrease and its change rate is from fast to slow. From 2000 to2015, spatiotemporal evolution path of the vulnerability of marine economic system is clear, and the driving factors are obviously different. Among 17 coastal cities, the vulnerability of Dalian has increased; the vulnerability of Qingdao,Weihai has a big drop; the vulnerability of Yingkou, Jingzhou, Huludao, Cangzhou, Weifang has no significant change;and the other 9 cities are alleviated.
引文
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[19]孙才志,覃雄合,李博,等.基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):705-714.
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[21] Cutter S L. The Vulnerability of Science and the Science of Vulnerability[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geog‐raphers,2003,93(1):1-12.
[22] Adger W N. Vulnerability[J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[23] Birkmann J,Carre?o M L,Barbat A H,et al. Framing vulnerability,risk and societal responses:the MOVE framework[J].Natural Hazards,2013,67(2):193-211.
[24] Lino Briguglio,Gordon Cordina,Nadia Farrugia,et al. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience:Concepts and Measurements[J]. Oxford Development Studies,2009,37(3):229-247.
[25]孙才志,陈富强.鸭绿江口滨海湿地景观生态健康评价[J].湿地科学,2017,15(1):40-46.
[26] Qin X,Sun C,Zou W. Quantitative models for assessing the human-ocean system's sustainable development in coastal cit‐ies:The perspective of metabolic-recycling in the Bohai Sea Ring Area,China[J]. Ocean&Coastal Management,2015,107(2):46-58.
[27]孙才志,于广华,王泽宇,等.环渤海地区海域承载力测度与时空分异分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):513-521.
[2] Malik B K. Algerian Economic Vulnerability to Structural Exogenous Oil Prices Shocks[C]//Africa Meeting of the Economet‐ric Society Algiers,Algeria. 2017.
[3] Turner B L,Kasperson R E,Matson P A,et al. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2003,100(14):8 074-8 079.
[4] Cutter S L,Boruff B J,Shirley W L. Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards[J]. Social Science Quarterly,2003,84(2):242-261.
[5]李博,苏飞,杨智,等.基于脆弱性视角的环渤海地区人海关系地域系统时空特征及演化分析[J].生态学报,2018,38(4):1 436-1 445.
[6] Adger W N,Kelly P M. Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements[J]. Mitigation&Adapta‐tion Strategies for Global Change,1999,4(3-4):253-266.
[7]卢亚灵,颜磊,许学工.环渤海地区生态脆弱性评价及其空间自相关分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(2):303-308.
[8]苏飞,张平宇,李鹤.中国煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性评价[J].地理研究,2008,27(4):907-916.
[9] Martha G Roberts,杨国安.可持续发展研究方法国际进展——脆弱性分析方法与可持续生计方法比较[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(1):11-21.
[10]杨振,丁启燕,王念,等.中国人口健康脆弱性地区差异与影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2018,38(1):135-142.
[11]方创琳,王岩.中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(2):234-247.
[12] Senapati S,Gupta V. Socio-economic vulnerability due to climate change:Deriving indicators for fishing communities in Mumbai[J]. Marine Policy,2017,76:90-97.
[13] Kantamaneni K,Phillips M,Thomas T,et al. Assessing coastal vulnerability:Development of a combined physical and eco‐nomic index[J]. Ocean&Coastal Management,2018,158:164-175.
[14]彭飞,孙才志,刘天宝,等.中国沿海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性时空演变[J].经济地理,2018,38(3):165-174.
[15]王泽宇,卢函,孙才志.中国海洋资源开发与海洋经济增长关系[J].经济地理,2017,37(11):117-126.
[16]李博,杨智,苏飞.基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):967-976.
[17]李博,杨智,苏飞,等.基于集对分析的中国海洋经济系统脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):47-54.
[18]彭飞,韩增林,杨俊,等.基于BP神经网络的中国沿海地区海洋经济系统脆弱性时空分异研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2 441-2 450.
[19]孙才志,覃雄合,李博,等.基于WSBM模型的环渤海地区海洋经济脆弱性研究[J].地理科学,2016,36(5):705-714.
[20]苏为华.多指标综合评价理论与方法问题研究[D].厦门:厦门大学,2000.
[21] Cutter S L. The Vulnerability of Science and the Science of Vulnerability[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geog‐raphers,2003,93(1):1-12.
[22] Adger W N. Vulnerability[J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281.
[23] Birkmann J,Carre?o M L,Barbat A H,et al. Framing vulnerability,risk and societal responses:the MOVE framework[J].Natural Hazards,2013,67(2):193-211.
[24] Lino Briguglio,Gordon Cordina,Nadia Farrugia,et al. Economic Vulnerability and Resilience:Concepts and Measurements[J]. Oxford Development Studies,2009,37(3):229-247.
[25]孙才志,陈富强.鸭绿江口滨海湿地景观生态健康评价[J].湿地科学,2017,15(1):40-46.
[26] Qin X,Sun C,Zou W. Quantitative models for assessing the human-ocean system's sustainable development in coastal cit‐ies:The perspective of metabolic-recycling in the Bohai Sea Ring Area,China[J]. Ocean&Coastal Management,2015,107(2):46-58.
[27]孙才志,于广华,王泽宇,等.环渤海地区海域承载力测度与时空分异分析[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):513-521.