中国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响——基于沿海11省市的面板门槛效应回归分析
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摘要
产业结构变动影响要素的流动与配置,要素配置效率决定着经济增长的质量与速度。本文基于VES生产函数建立了以海洋产业结构为门槛变量的估计模型,探究海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响,可为推动中国海洋供给侧结构性改革,提高海洋经济增长质量提供参考。研究结果表明:(1)海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的影响具有显著差异性。海洋第二产业占GOP比重在越过门槛值时对海洋经济增长的影响比较显著,对海洋经济发展产生较大的"结构红利",在一定程度上会促进海洋经济增长;海洋第三产业占GOP比重对海洋经济增长的影响则不显著;海洋产业结构高度化对海洋经济增长具有负向效应,会制约海洋经济发展。(2)海洋产业结构变动引起了海洋资本、海洋劳动力和海洋科技投入对海洋经济增长方式的改变,并呈现阶段性特征。传统海洋投资结构在海洋经济发展初期会促进海洋经济增长,但越过门槛值后,将会抑制海洋经济增长;海洋劳动力对海洋经济增长的正向影响均比较显著;海洋经济增长对科技投入的依赖,更多的需要智力支持而非单纯的体力供给。
Changes in industrial structure influence the flow and distribution of factors,and the allocation efficiency of factors determines the quality and speed of marine economic growth. Based on the VES production function,we establish an estimation model considering marine industry structure as a threshold variable to study the impacts of marine industrial structural changes on marine economic growth,Which provides a reference for promoting the structural reform of China's marine supply side and improving the quality of marine economic growth. We found that marine industrial structure changes have differences on the influence of marine economic growth.The proportion of marine secondary industry in GOP over the threshold has a significant impact on the growth of the marine economy,which has a large‘structural dividend'to the development of the marine economy and promotes marine economic growth. The effect of the proportion of marine tertiary industry in GOP on marine economic growth is not significant. However,the high level of marine industrial structure has a negative effect on the growth of the marine economy and hinder the development of the marine economy. A traditional marine investment structure promotes growth of the marine economy in the early stage of marine economic development,but oversteps marine economic growth after crossing the threshold. Marine labor has a positive effect on marine economic growth. The dependence of marine economic growth on science and technology investment means that intellectual support rather than physical supply is needed.
Changes in industrial structure influence the flow and distribution of factors,and the allocation efficiency of factors determines the quality and speed of marine economic growth. Based on the VES production function,we establish an estimation model considering marine industry structure as a threshold variable to study the impacts of marine industrial structural changes on marine economic growth,Which provides a reference for promoting the structural reform of China's marine supply side and improving the quality of marine economic growth. We found that marine industrial structure changes have differences on the influence of marine economic growth.The proportion of marine secondary industry in GOP over the threshold has a significant impact on the growth of the marine economy,which has a large‘structural dividend'to the development of the marine economy and promotes marine economic growth. The effect of the proportion of marine tertiary industry in GOP on marine economic growth is not significant. However,the high level of marine industrial structure has a negative effect on the growth of the marine economy and hinder the development of the marine economy. A traditional marine investment structure promotes growth of the marine economy in the early stage of marine economic development,but oversteps marine economic growth after crossing the threshold. Marine labor has a positive effect on marine economic growth. The dependence of marine economic growth on science and technology investment means that intellectual support rather than physical supply is needed.
引文
[1]Peneder M.Industrial structure and aggregate growth[J].Technology and the Economy,2003,14(4):427-448.
[2]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002,(5):14-21.[Liu W,Li S R.Economic structure and economic growth[J].China Industrial Economy,2002,(5):14-21.]
[3]朱慧明,韩玉启.产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].运筹与管理,2003,12(2):68-72.[Zhu H J,Han Y Q.Experimental analysis on the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2003,12(2):68-72.]
[4]纪玉山,吴勇民.我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现[J].当代经济研究,2006,(6):47-51.[Ji Y S,Wu YM.Construction and realization of the co-integration model of the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in China[J].Contemporary Economic Research,2006,(6):47-51.]
[5]Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth:The anatomy of urban crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[6]俞晓晶.转型期中国经济增长的产业结构效应[J].财经科学,2013,(7):55-61.[Yu X J.Economic structure effect of China's economic growth in the transitional period[J].Finance&Economics,2013,(7):55-61.]
[7]吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级与经济增长方式转变[J].管理世界,1999,(1):113-125.[LüT,Zhou S L.China's industrial upgrading and economic growth mode change[J].Management World,1999,(1):113-125.]
[8]付凌晖.我国产业结构高级化与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2010,27(8):79-81.[Fu L H.Experimental study on the relationship between advanced industrial structure and economic growth in China[J].Statistic Research,2010,27(8):79-81.]
[9]李小平,卢现祥.中国制造业的结构变动和生产率增长[J].世界经济,2007,30(5):52-64.[Li X P,Lu Q X.Structural changes and productivity growth in China's manufacturing industry[J].The Journal of World Economy,2007,30(5):52-64.]
[10]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007-2015.[State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic of China.China Marine Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2007-2014.]
[11]孙瑞杰,李双建.海洋经济领域投入要素贡献率的测算[J].海洋开发与管理,2011,28(7):95-99.[Sun R J,Li S J.Evaluation of contribution rate of input factors in marine economy[J].Ocean Development and Management,2011,28(7):95-99.]
[12]黄瑞芬,雷晓.要素投入对我国海洋经济增长的效应分析:基于广义C-D生产函数与岭回归分析方法[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(6):118-122.[Huang R F,Lei X.Effects of factor input on China's marine economic growth:Based on generalized C-Dproduction function and ridge regression analysis method[J].China Fishery Economics,2013,31(6):118-122.]
[13]翟仁祥.海洋科技投入与海洋经济增长:中国沿海地区面板数据实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(4):75-80.[Zhai R X.Marine science and technology investment and marine economic growth:An empirical study on panel data in China's coastal areas[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2014,44(4):75-80.]
[14]乔俊果,朱坚真.政府海洋科技投入与海洋经济增长:基于面板数据的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,32(4):37-40.[Qiao J G,Zhu J Z.Marine science and technology investment from government and marine economic growth:An empirical study based on panel data[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2012,32(4):37-40.]
[15]张岑,熊德平.浙江省海洋产业结构变迁对区域经济增长的影响研究[J].特区经济,2015,(4):46-48.[Zhang C,Xiong D P.Effects of structural change of marine industry on regional economic growth in Zhejiang province[J].Special Zone Economy,2015,(4):46-48.]
[16]王端岚.福建省海洋产业结构变动与海洋经济增长的关系研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2013,30(9):85-90.[Wang D L.Study on the relationship between marine industrial structure change and marine economic growth in Fujian province[J].Ocean Development and Management,2013,30(9):85-90.]
[17]王玲玲,殷克东.我国海洋产业结构与海洋经济增长关系研究[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(6):89-93.[Wang L L,Yin K D.Study on the relationship between marine industrial structure and marine economic growth in China[J].China Fishery Economics,2013,31(6):89-93.]
[18]于梦璇,安平.海洋产业结构调整与海洋经济增长-生产要素投入贡献率的再测算[J].太平洋学报,2016,24(5):86-93.[Yu M X,An P.Optimization of marine industry structure and marine economic growth-re-calculation of contribution rate of production factor investment[J].Pacific Journal,2016,24(5):86-93.]
[19]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,王萌.我国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长贡献的时空差异研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):98-103.[Di Q B,Liu X X,Wang M.Study on the spatial and temporal differences of the contribution of marine industrial structure to marine economic growth[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(10):98-103.]
[20]王玲玲.海洋科技进步对区域海洋经济增长贡献率测度研究[J].海洋湖沼通报,2015,(2):185-190.[Wang L L.Study on contribution rate of marine science and technology progress to regional marine economic growth[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2015,(2):185-190.]
[21]谢兰云.创新、产业结构与经济增长的门槛效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(2):51-59.[Xie Y L.Threshold effect analysis on innovation,industrial structure and economic growth[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2015,35(2):51-59.]
[22]徐杰,段万春,杨建龙.中国资本存量的重估[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):72-77.[Xu J,Duan W C,Yang J L.Revaluation of China's capital stock[J].Statistical Research,2010,27(12):72-77.]
[23]张军,章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,2003,(7):35-43.[Zhang J,Zhang Y.Re-estimation of China's Capital Stock K[J].Economic Research,2003,(7):35-43.]
[24]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,(5):4-16.[Gan C H,Zheng R G,Yu D F.The impact of China's industrial structure changes on economic growth and fluctuations[J].Economic Research,2011,(5):4-16.]
[25]Hansen B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.
[26]国家海洋局.中国海洋年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007-2015.[State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic of China.China Marine Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2007-2014.]
[27]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2015.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007-2015.]
[28]Arrow K J.The economic implications of learning by doing[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1962,29(3):155-173.
1)本研究的海洋产业结构形态是按照海洋第一、二、三产业的产值占海洋生产总值的比重大小排序而得。“三、二、一”型海洋产业结构形态显示出海洋第三产业占海洋生产总值的比重最大,海洋第二产业所占比重次之,海洋第一产业所占比重最小。
1)由于Sir与ln GOP是对数关系,所以Sir每增加1个百分点所引起GOP变化的计算方式为exp(3.05*0.01)-1=0.03,其余变量也类似考虑。
1)由于MHIS与ln GOP是对数关系,所以MHIS每增加1个单位所引起GOP变化的计算方式为1-exp(-0.273*1)=0.24,1-exp(-0.313*1)=0.27。
[2]刘伟,李绍荣.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002,(5):14-21.[Liu W,Li S R.Economic structure and economic growth[J].China Industrial Economy,2002,(5):14-21.]
[3]朱慧明,韩玉启.产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].运筹与管理,2003,12(2):68-72.[Zhu H J,Han Y Q.Experimental analysis on the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2003,12(2):68-72.]
[4]纪玉山,吴勇民.我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现[J].当代经济研究,2006,(6):47-51.[Ji Y S,Wu YM.Construction and realization of the co-integration model of the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in China[J].Contemporary Economic Research,2006,(6):47-51.]
[5]Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth:The anatomy of urban crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[6]俞晓晶.转型期中国经济增长的产业结构效应[J].财经科学,2013,(7):55-61.[Yu X J.Economic structure effect of China's economic growth in the transitional period[J].Finance&Economics,2013,(7):55-61.]
[7]吕铁,周叔莲.中国的产业结构升级与经济增长方式转变[J].管理世界,1999,(1):113-125.[LüT,Zhou S L.China's industrial upgrading and economic growth mode change[J].Management World,1999,(1):113-125.]
[8]付凌晖.我国产业结构高级化与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2010,27(8):79-81.[Fu L H.Experimental study on the relationship between advanced industrial structure and economic growth in China[J].Statistic Research,2010,27(8):79-81.]
[9]李小平,卢现祥.中国制造业的结构变动和生产率增长[J].世界经济,2007,30(5):52-64.[Li X P,Lu Q X.Structural changes and productivity growth in China's manufacturing industry[J].The Journal of World Economy,2007,30(5):52-64.]
[10]国家海洋局.中国海洋统计年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007-2015.[State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic of China.China Marine Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2007-2014.]
[11]孙瑞杰,李双建.海洋经济领域投入要素贡献率的测算[J].海洋开发与管理,2011,28(7):95-99.[Sun R J,Li S J.Evaluation of contribution rate of input factors in marine economy[J].Ocean Development and Management,2011,28(7):95-99.]
[12]黄瑞芬,雷晓.要素投入对我国海洋经济增长的效应分析:基于广义C-D生产函数与岭回归分析方法[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(6):118-122.[Huang R F,Lei X.Effects of factor input on China's marine economic growth:Based on generalized C-Dproduction function and ridge regression analysis method[J].China Fishery Economics,2013,31(6):118-122.]
[13]翟仁祥.海洋科技投入与海洋经济增长:中国沿海地区面板数据实证研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(4):75-80.[Zhai R X.Marine science and technology investment and marine economic growth:An empirical study on panel data in China's coastal areas[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2014,44(4):75-80.]
[14]乔俊果,朱坚真.政府海洋科技投入与海洋经济增长:基于面板数据的实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2012,32(4):37-40.[Qiao J G,Zhu J Z.Marine science and technology investment from government and marine economic growth:An empirical study based on panel data[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2012,32(4):37-40.]
[15]张岑,熊德平.浙江省海洋产业结构变迁对区域经济增长的影响研究[J].特区经济,2015,(4):46-48.[Zhang C,Xiong D P.Effects of structural change of marine industry on regional economic growth in Zhejiang province[J].Special Zone Economy,2015,(4):46-48.]
[16]王端岚.福建省海洋产业结构变动与海洋经济增长的关系研究[J].海洋开发与管理,2013,30(9):85-90.[Wang D L.Study on the relationship between marine industrial structure change and marine economic growth in Fujian province[J].Ocean Development and Management,2013,30(9):85-90.]
[17]王玲玲,殷克东.我国海洋产业结构与海洋经济增长关系研究[J].中国渔业经济,2013,31(6):89-93.[Wang L L,Yin K D.Study on the relationship between marine industrial structure and marine economic growth in China[J].China Fishery Economics,2013,31(6):89-93.]
[18]于梦璇,安平.海洋产业结构调整与海洋经济增长-生产要素投入贡献率的再测算[J].太平洋学报,2016,24(5):86-93.[Yu M X,An P.Optimization of marine industry structure and marine economic growth-re-calculation of contribution rate of production factor investment[J].Pacific Journal,2016,24(5):86-93.]
[19]狄乾斌,刘欣欣,王萌.我国海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长贡献的时空差异研究[J].经济地理,2014,34(10):98-103.[Di Q B,Liu X X,Wang M.Study on the spatial and temporal differences of the contribution of marine industrial structure to marine economic growth[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(10):98-103.]
[20]王玲玲.海洋科技进步对区域海洋经济增长贡献率测度研究[J].海洋湖沼通报,2015,(2):185-190.[Wang L L.Study on contribution rate of marine science and technology progress to regional marine economic growth[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2015,(2):185-190.]
[21]谢兰云.创新、产业结构与经济增长的门槛效应分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2015,35(2):51-59.[Xie Y L.Threshold effect analysis on innovation,industrial structure and economic growth[J].Economic Theory and Business Management,2015,35(2):51-59.]
[22]徐杰,段万春,杨建龙.中国资本存量的重估[J].统计研究,2010,27(12):72-77.[Xu J,Duan W C,Yang J L.Revaluation of China's capital stock[J].Statistical Research,2010,27(12):72-77.]
[23]张军,章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,2003,(7):35-43.[Zhang J,Zhang Y.Re-estimation of China's Capital Stock K[J].Economic Research,2003,(7):35-43.]
[24]干春晖,郑若谷,余典范.中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J].经济研究,2011,(5):4-16.[Gan C H,Zheng R G,Yu D F.The impact of China's industrial structure changes on economic growth and fluctuations[J].Economic Research,2011,(5):4-16.]
[25]Hansen B E.Sample splitting and threshold estimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.
[26]国家海洋局.中国海洋年鉴[M].北京:海洋出版社,2007-2015.[State Oceanic Administration People’s Republic of China.China Marine Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Ocean Press,2007-2014.]
[27]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007-2015.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007-2015.]
[28]Arrow K J.The economic implications of learning by doing[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1962,29(3):155-173.
1)本研究的海洋产业结构形态是按照海洋第一、二、三产业的产值占海洋生产总值的比重大小排序而得。“三、二、一”型海洋产业结构形态显示出海洋第三产业占海洋生产总值的比重最大,海洋第二产业所占比重次之,海洋第一产业所占比重最小。
1)由于Sir与ln GOP是对数关系,所以Sir每增加1个百分点所引起GOP变化的计算方式为exp(3.05*0.01)-1=0.03,其余变量也类似考虑。
1)由于MHIS与ln GOP是对数关系,所以MHIS每增加1个单位所引起GOP变化的计算方式为1-exp(-0.273*1)=0.24,1-exp(-0.313*1)=0.27。