摘要
概率权重偏差指人对事件发生的主观概率估计与客观概率的差异。它影响投资、投保、医患沟通等方面。"重结果轻概率"的非补偿性策略和参照点诱发的情绪波动会引发概率权重偏差;改变"概率"的描述形式、"结果"的情绪体验、"损益"的参照点、风险的心理距离等可调整权重偏差、优化决策。未来需深究权重偏差的适用情境、机制关联及偏差辨别等问题。
Probability weighting bias refers to the deviation between the perceived likelihood and the objective likelihood of an event, which affects investment, insurance, doctor-patient communications, etc.The non-compensatory strategy in which people give more weight to "outcomes" than "probabilities", and the emotional fluctuation induced by the reference point cause probability weighting bias; changing the description of "probabilities", emotional experience of "outcomes", reference point of "gains and losses",and psychological distance from risk, can adjust such bias and optimize decision-making. Future studies need to further explore the issues, such as its application situations, mechanism correlations, and the identification of probability weighting bias.
引文
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1 Becker-DeGroot-Marschak Method(BDM):https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Becker%E2%80%93DeGroot%E2%80%93Marschak_method