基于改进元胞自动机的微博舆情演化研究
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摘要
[目的/意义]微博舆情监管是政府推进网络社会治理所面临的难题。对微博舆情进行研究有助于深入了解微博舆情传播规律,为政府监管微博舆情提供建议。[方法/过程]首先对微博舆情传播机制进行分析;随后在此基础上提出了有限随机动态链接的网络拓扑结构与多主体有界信任模型对元胞自动机模型进行了改进;最后通过仿真实验分析微博舆情演化特征。[结果/结论]研究发现,该模型存在"信息孤岛"现象,该现象的产生与初始沉默元胞比例和热门微博关注度有关,并且初始沉默元胞比例对舆情的演化规模与周期有影响,热门微博关注度对舆情观点演化有影响。
[Purpose/significance]Weibo public opinion supervision is a difficult problem for the government to promote network social governance.Research on Weibo public opinion will help to understand the evolution laws of Weibo and provide suggestions for government.[Method/process]By analyzing the mechanism of Weibo public opinion dissemination,a network topology structure with limited random dynamic links and a multi-agent bounded trust model are proposed to improve the cellular automata model.[Result/conclusion]The study found that there is an "information island" phenomenon in this model.The initial silence cell ratio and attention of popularity microblog are related to this phenomenon.And the initial silent cell ratio has an impact on the evolution scale and cycle of public opinion.The attention of popularity microblog has an impact on the evolutionary speed of public opinion.
[Purpose/significance]Weibo public opinion supervision is a difficult problem for the government to promote network social governance.Research on Weibo public opinion will help to understand the evolution laws of Weibo and provide suggestions for government.[Method/process]By analyzing the mechanism of Weibo public opinion dissemination,a network topology structure with limited random dynamic links and a multi-agent bounded trust model are proposed to improve the cellular automata model.[Result/conclusion]The study found that there is an "information island" phenomenon in this model.The initial silence cell ratio and attention of popularity microblog are related to this phenomenon.And the initial silent cell ratio has an impact on the evolution scale and cycle of public opinion.The attention of popularity microblog has an impact on the evolutionary speed of public opinion.
引文
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[16] 李根强,罗艳艳,臧学莲.基于有界信任模型的网络社群舆情观点演化研究[J].情报科学,2017,35(6):63-68.
[17] 宋新宇.基于多主体的微博舆情演化研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2017.
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[2] 黄炜,余辉,李岳峰,等.网络舆情事件演化的仿真实践研究[J].现代情报,2017,37(8):65-73.
[3] 范纯龙,宋会敏,丁国辉.一种改进的SEIR网络谣言传播模型研究[J].情报杂志,2017,36(3):86-91.
[4] 曾倬颖,李睿深.网络舆情的传播模型研究综述[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2016,11(6):588-593.
[5] 刘慕仁,邓敏艺,孔令江.舆论传播的元胞自动机模型[J].广西师范大学学报:自然科学版,2002,20(2):1-3.
[6] 邓青,刘艺,马亚萍,等.基于元胞自动机的网络信息传播和舆情干预机制研究[J].管理评论,2016,28(8):106-114.
[7] CHEN T,LIN J.A model for the evolution of online public opinion based on fuzzy cellular automata[J].Journal of the China Society for Scientific & Technical Information,2013.
[8] 胡祖平,何建佳.基于元胞自动机的网络舆论演化建模及仿真[J].情报理论与实践,2018.41(5):155-160.
[9] 毛乾任,王朝斌,李艳梅,等.异质CA模型上含有导控策略的网络舆情传播研究[J].计算机应用研究,2017,34(9):2633-2637.
[10] 黎永壹.基于决策论元胞自动机的网络舆情传播研究[J].微电子学与计算机,2016,33(6):126-129.
[11] 王根生,勒中坚,陆旭,等.迁移元胞自动机网络舆情演化模型(M^2CA)[J].情报学报,2011,30(6):570-576.
[12] NEUMANN J,BURKS AW.Theory of self-reproducing automata[M].University of Illinois Press,1966.
[13] DEUTSCH A.Cellular automaton models for collective cell behaviour[M]//Cellular Automata and Discrete Complex Systems.Berlin Heidelberg:Springer,2015:1-10.
[14] 于春,何明星.基于元胞自动机的微博舆情传播研究[J].西华大学学报:自然科学版,2014(5):16-19.
[15] 张伟.基于复杂社会网络的网络舆情演化模型研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2014.
[16] 李根强,罗艳艳,臧学莲.基于有界信任模型的网络社群舆情观点演化研究[J].情报科学,2017,35(6):63-68.
[17] 宋新宇.基于多主体的微博舆情演化研究[D].北京:首都经济贸易大学,2017.
[18] 宋姜,吴鹏,甘利人.网民沉默因素的元胞自动机舆情演化建模及仿真[J].情报理论与实践,2015,38(8):124-129.
[19] 毛乾任,王朝斌,包晓安,等.基于元胞自动机模型的网络舆情导控机制研究[J].计算机工程,2017,43(6):105-110.