“逆全球化”风潮下中国在美洲非常规油气投资风险分析
|
摘要
当前,在"逆全球化"风潮愈演愈烈的背景下,美洲"页岩气革命"也向规模更大、影响更深远的"非常规油气革命"演变,正深刻重塑中国能源投资的环境。"逆全球化"风潮下中国在美洲非常规油气的投资风险主要包括由非常规油气生产特质引致的内生性金融与市场运营风险、技术与环境风险,由地区复杂的政治经济环境诱发的外源性政治审查、地缘政治、政策法律、社会运动与舆情风险等。非常规油气投资风险的防范是一个系统工程,需要政府与能源企业根据区域、国家的现实情况分层、分类制定可操作的应对策略,以差异化管控风险。
At present,in the context of growing trend of " anti-globalization",the American " shale gas revolution" has evolved into a larger and far-reaching " unconventional oil and gas revolution",which is profoundly reshaping the environment of China's energy investment. China's investment risks in unconventional oil and gas( UOG) in the America under the trend of " anti-globalization" mainly include endogenous financial and market operation risks,technological and environmental risks caused by UOG production characteristics,exogenous political review,geopolitics,policy and law,social movement and public opinion risks induced by the complex regional political and economic environment. The prevention of UOG investment risk is a systematic project,which requires the government and energy enterprises to lay down and classify operational strategies according to the regional and national realities in order to differentiate the risk control.
At present,in the context of growing trend of " anti-globalization",the American " shale gas revolution" has evolved into a larger and far-reaching " unconventional oil and gas revolution",which is profoundly reshaping the environment of China's energy investment. China's investment risks in unconventional oil and gas( UOG) in the America under the trend of " anti-globalization" mainly include endogenous financial and market operation risks,technological and environmental risks caused by UOG production characteristics,exogenous political review,geopolitics,policy and law,social movement and public opinion risks induced by the complex regional political and economic environment. The prevention of UOG investment risk is a systematic project,which requires the government and energy enterprises to lay down and classify operational strategies according to the regional and national realities in order to differentiate the risk control.
引文
[1]徐坚.逆全球化风潮与全球化的转型发展[J].国际问题研究,2017(3):1-15.
[2]叶江.全球化退潮及民粹主义兴起对现代世界体系的影响[J].国际观察,2017(3):50-64.
[3]邹才能,翟光明,张光亚,等.全球常规—非常规油气形成分布、资源潜力及趋势预测[J].石油勘探与开发,2015,42(1):13-25.
[4]邹才能,赵群,张国生,等.能源革命:从化石能源到新能源[J].天然气工业,2016,36(1):1-10.
[5]国际能源署.世界能源展望2018:石油和天然气生产国特别报告[R].北京:2018.
[6]张中祥.如何应对“中国能源威胁论”——国有能源企业海外投资收购中的政策性银行支持[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2016(22):49-62.
[7]中国与全球化智库.中国企业全球化报告(2017)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017:55.
[8]BLACKWILL R D,O′SULLIVAN M L.America′s energy edge :The geopolitical consequences of the shale revolution[J].Foreign Affairs,2014,93(2):102-114.
[9]中国出口信用保险公司.全球投资风险分析报告(2017)[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2017:79.
[10]胡溢轩.美国环境运动的发展脉络与演进逻辑[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(5):39-48.
(1)See:IEA.World energy outlook 2011[R].London,2011:231.
(2)See:IEA.Medium-term oil market report 2014[R].Paris,2014:134.
(3)See:IEA.World energy outlook 2017[R].London,2017:166.
(4)See:IEA.World energy outlook 2017[R].London,2017:435.
(5)See:U.S.National Petroleum Council.Unconventional oil[R].Working Document of the NPC North American Resource Development Study,2011-09-15.
(6)See:USDOE Energy Secretary of Energy Advisory Board(SEAB) Shale Gas Production Subcommittee.90-Day Report[R].2011-08-18.
(7)相关论述可参见:周云亨.美国能源独立与中国能源安全[J].中国社会科学文摘,2014(3):29-35;舒建中.页岩气革命对美国能源主导地位的影响[J],国际观察,2014(5):78-89;丁宁.特朗普政府的美国能源政策动向:中拉能源合作的新机遇[J].太平洋学报,2018,26(10):52-66.
(8)相关文献参见:KEVIN P G.The new banks in town:Chinese finance in Latin America[R].Inter-American Dialogue,Washington,D.C.2012;SHARIFE K.China′s new colonialism[J].Foreign Policy,2009-09-25.www.foreignpolicy.com/arti-cles/2009/09/25/ chinas_new_ colonialism;The Economist.The rise of state capitalism[EB/OL].[2018-12-18].www.economist.com/node/21543160;JOSHUA K.State capitalism:How the return of statism is transforming the world[M].Oxford :Oxford University Press,2018.
[2]叶江.全球化退潮及民粹主义兴起对现代世界体系的影响[J].国际观察,2017(3):50-64.
[3]邹才能,翟光明,张光亚,等.全球常规—非常规油气形成分布、资源潜力及趋势预测[J].石油勘探与开发,2015,42(1):13-25.
[4]邹才能,赵群,张国生,等.能源革命:从化石能源到新能源[J].天然气工业,2016,36(1):1-10.
[5]国际能源署.世界能源展望2018:石油和天然气生产国特别报告[R].北京:2018.
[6]张中祥.如何应对“中国能源威胁论”——国有能源企业海外投资收购中的政策性银行支持[J].人民论坛·学术前沿,2016(22):49-62.
[7]中国与全球化智库.中国企业全球化报告(2017)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017:55.
[8]BLACKWILL R D,O′SULLIVAN M L.America′s energy edge :The geopolitical consequences of the shale revolution[J].Foreign Affairs,2014,93(2):102-114.
[9]中国出口信用保险公司.全球投资风险分析报告(2017)[M].北京:中国财政经济出版社,2017:79.
[10]胡溢轩.美国环境运动的发展脉络与演进逻辑[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2018(5):39-48.
(1)See:IEA.World energy outlook 2011[R].London,2011:231.
(2)See:IEA.Medium-term oil market report 2014[R].Paris,2014:134.
(3)See:IEA.World energy outlook 2017[R].London,2017:166.
(4)See:IEA.World energy outlook 2017[R].London,2017:435.
(5)See:U.S.National Petroleum Council.Unconventional oil[R].Working Document of the NPC North American Resource Development Study,2011-09-15.
(6)See:USDOE Energy Secretary of Energy Advisory Board(SEAB) Shale Gas Production Subcommittee.90-Day Report[R].2011-08-18.
(7)相关论述可参见:周云亨.美国能源独立与中国能源安全[J].中国社会科学文摘,2014(3):29-35;舒建中.页岩气革命对美国能源主导地位的影响[J],国际观察,2014(5):78-89;丁宁.特朗普政府的美国能源政策动向:中拉能源合作的新机遇[J].太平洋学报,2018,26(10):52-66.
(8)相关文献参见:KEVIN P G.The new banks in town:Chinese finance in Latin America[R].Inter-American Dialogue,Washington,D.C.2012;SHARIFE K.China′s new colonialism[J].Foreign Policy,2009-09-25.www.foreignpolicy.com/arti-cles/2009/09/25/ chinas_new_ colonialism;The Economist.The rise of state capitalism[EB/OL].[2018-12-18].www.economist.com/node/21543160;JOSHUA K.State capitalism:How the return of statism is transforming the world[M].Oxford :Oxford University Press,2018.