基于模糊遗传算法的输电线路故障混合威布尔分布模型
|
摘要
输电线路故障失效受其所处位置、环境、运维水平和使用寿命等因素影响,为准确反映多失效模式下输电线路故障间隔时间的概率分布,建立考虑气候因素的输电线路故障混合威布尔分布模型,采用遗传算法对混合威布尔分布参数进行拟合,并采用模糊逻辑控制,动态调整遗传算法中的交叉概率和变异概率。算例分析结果表明:所提方法可以提高遗传算法收敛速度,克服遗传算法过早收敛的问题,提高了混合威布尔分布参数拟合的精确性和适用性。相关方法可用于指导电网规划、调度运行和设备维护。
The transmission line failure mode is affected by the following factors,including fault location,environment,operation level and service life.In order to accurately reflect fault interval probability distribution model under multiple failure modes,a mixed Weibull distribution model considering climate factors was established in this paper.The genetic algorithm was used to fit the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution,and the fuzzy logic control was used to dynamically adjust the cross probability and mutation probability in the genetic algorithm.Experiment results showed that the proposed method could improve the convergence speed of genetic algorithm,and the problem of premature convergence was solved.The parameter fitting accuracy and applicability of the mixed Weibull distribution were improved,which could be used to guide the power grid planning,operation and maintenance of equipment.
The transmission line failure mode is affected by the following factors,including fault location,environment,operation level and service life.In order to accurately reflect fault interval probability distribution model under multiple failure modes,a mixed Weibull distribution model considering climate factors was established in this paper.The genetic algorithm was used to fit the parameters of the mixed Weibull distribution,and the fuzzy logic control was used to dynamically adjust the cross probability and mutation probability in the genetic algorithm.Experiment results showed that the proposed method could improve the convergence speed of genetic algorithm,and the problem of premature convergence was solved.The parameter fitting accuracy and applicability of the mixed Weibull distribution were improved,which could be used to guide the power grid planning,operation and maintenance of equipment.
引文
[1]蒋仁言.威布尔模型族特性、参数估计和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1998.
[2]Murthy D N P,Xie M,Jiang R Y.Weibull models[M].New York:Wiley,2003.
[3]杜贵平,何莉丹,张波.基于混合威布尔分布的电工产品可靠性建模[J].电测与仪表,2014,51(5):21-25.DU Ping-gui,HE Li-dan,ZHANG Bo.Reliability modeling of electrical engineering products based on mixed Weibull distribution[J].Electrical Measurement&Instrumentation,2014,51(5):21-25.
[4]赵渊,袁蓉,芦晶晶.配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(1):38-43.ZHAO Yuan,YUAN Rong,LU Jing-jing.Analytical approach and nonparametric kernel estimation to compute probability distributions reliability indices of distribution systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems.2014,38(1):38-43.
[5]彭子平,刘波,陈清江.输电线路故障率模型研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2014,29(2):51-57.PENG Zi-ping,LIU Bo,CHEN Qing-jiang.Failure rate model for transmission line[J].Journal of Eiectric Power Science and Technology,2014,29(2):51-57.
[6]段大鹏,张玉佳,郭鑫宇,等.气象因素对北京电网设备影响的统计规律及时空分布特征[J].高压电器,2013,49(7):75-79.DUAN Da-peng,ZHANG Yu-jia,GUO Xin-yu,et al.Statistical law and distribution characteristic of the impacts of climate on equipment of Beijing power network[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2013,49(7):75-79.
[7]王建,熊小伏,李哲,等.气象环境相关的输电线路故障时间分布特征及模拟[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):109-114.WANG Jian,XIONG Xiao-fu,LI Zhe,et al.Modeling of generalized load steady-state characteristics based on affinity propagation clustering algorithm and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):109-114.
[8]龚伟俊,李为相,张广明.基于威布尔分布的风速概率分布参数估计方法[J].可再生能源,2011,29(6):20-23.GONG Wei-jun,LI Wei-xiang,ZHANG Guang-ming.The estimation algorithm on the probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed based on Weibull distribution[J].Renewable Energy Resources,2011,29(6):20-23.
[9]罗航,王厚军,黄建国,等.基于PSO的三参数威布尔分布参数的联合估计方法[J].仪器仪表学报,2009,30(8),1 604-1 611.LUO Hang,WANG Hou-jun,HUANG Jian-guo,et al.Method of united estimation to the parameters of threeparameter Weibull distribution based on PSO[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument.2009,30(8),1 604-1 611.
[10]武志刚,马义松.基于图论和改进模糊遗传算法的配电网转供方法[J].华南理工大学学报:自然科学版,2015,43(12):48-54.WU Zhi-gang,MA Yi-song.A load transfer method for power distribution networks based on graph theory and improved fuzzy genetic algorithm[J].Journal of South China University of Technology:Natural Science Edition,2015,43(12):48-54.
[11]徐岩,白静,戴志辉.一种基于威布尔分布的继电保护装置可靠性分析的新方法[J].华北电力大学学报:自然科学版,2012,39(4):15-19.XU Yan,BAI Jing,DAI Zhi-jun.A new method for protective relay reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University:Natural Science Edition,2012,39(4):15-19.
[2]Murthy D N P,Xie M,Jiang R Y.Weibull models[M].New York:Wiley,2003.
[3]杜贵平,何莉丹,张波.基于混合威布尔分布的电工产品可靠性建模[J].电测与仪表,2014,51(5):21-25.DU Ping-gui,HE Li-dan,ZHANG Bo.Reliability modeling of electrical engineering products based on mixed Weibull distribution[J].Electrical Measurement&Instrumentation,2014,51(5):21-25.
[4]赵渊,袁蓉,芦晶晶.配电网可靠性概率分布的解析模型和非参数估计[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(1):38-43.ZHAO Yuan,YUAN Rong,LU Jing-jing.Analytical approach and nonparametric kernel estimation to compute probability distributions reliability indices of distribution systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems.2014,38(1):38-43.
[5]彭子平,刘波,陈清江.输电线路故障率模型研究[J].电力科学与技术学报,2014,29(2):51-57.PENG Zi-ping,LIU Bo,CHEN Qing-jiang.Failure rate model for transmission line[J].Journal of Eiectric Power Science and Technology,2014,29(2):51-57.
[6]段大鹏,张玉佳,郭鑫宇,等.气象因素对北京电网设备影响的统计规律及时空分布特征[J].高压电器,2013,49(7):75-79.DUAN Da-peng,ZHANG Yu-jia,GUO Xin-yu,et al.Statistical law and distribution characteristic of the impacts of climate on equipment of Beijing power network[J].High Voltage Apparatus,2013,49(7):75-79.
[7]王建,熊小伏,李哲,等.气象环境相关的输电线路故障时间分布特征及模拟[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(3):109-114.WANG Jian,XIONG Xiao-fu,LI Zhe,et al.Modeling of generalized load steady-state characteristics based on affinity propagation clustering algorithm and its application[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2016,36(3):109-114.
[8]龚伟俊,李为相,张广明.基于威布尔分布的风速概率分布参数估计方法[J].可再生能源,2011,29(6):20-23.GONG Wei-jun,LI Wei-xiang,ZHANG Guang-ming.The estimation algorithm on the probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed based on Weibull distribution[J].Renewable Energy Resources,2011,29(6):20-23.
[9]罗航,王厚军,黄建国,等.基于PSO的三参数威布尔分布参数的联合估计方法[J].仪器仪表学报,2009,30(8),1 604-1 611.LUO Hang,WANG Hou-jun,HUANG Jian-guo,et al.Method of united estimation to the parameters of threeparameter Weibull distribution based on PSO[J].Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument.2009,30(8),1 604-1 611.
[10]武志刚,马义松.基于图论和改进模糊遗传算法的配电网转供方法[J].华南理工大学学报:自然科学版,2015,43(12):48-54.WU Zhi-gang,MA Yi-song.A load transfer method for power distribution networks based on graph theory and improved fuzzy genetic algorithm[J].Journal of South China University of Technology:Natural Science Edition,2015,43(12):48-54.
[11]徐岩,白静,戴志辉.一种基于威布尔分布的继电保护装置可靠性分析的新方法[J].华北电力大学学报:自然科学版,2012,39(4):15-19.XU Yan,BAI Jing,DAI Zhi-jun.A new method for protective relay reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University:Natural Science Edition,2012,39(4):15-19.