电动汽车产业的网络效应:识别与异质性检验
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摘要
用户规模和配套设施构成了电动汽车使用的网络基础,如何发挥网络效应对于电动汽车市场推广和产业发展具有至关重要的作用。本文基于直接和间接网络效应影响电动汽车购买意愿的理论机制分析,选择离散选择实验方法对用户购买电动汽车考虑的主要因素展开调研,通过数据收集和处理,利用混合Logit模型对电动汽车产业的网络效应加以识别,并根据个体属性、用车习惯、消费者感知和环保意愿对总体样本加以分组,考察了网络效应的异质性影响。结果表明:周围亲朋使用比例和配套设施建设能够增强消费者购买电动汽车的意愿,直接和间接网络效应都十分显著;不同类型消费者的购车决策存在着一定差异,对于有车一族和家庭年收入较高人群,网络效应的作用更为明显,而年行驶里程数和月长途出行次数越多、对电动汽车品牌和优惠政策更了解、以及环保意愿强烈的消费者,其购车决策也越容易受到网络效应的影响。
The scale of users and matched infrastructure constitute the network foundation of electric vehicles. Giving play to the network effect is very important for the electric vehicles market and the related industrial development. Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis of direct and indirect network effect influencing the consumers' electric vehicles purchasing preference,this paper chooses the discrete choice experiment method to research the main factors considered by consumers when buying electric vehicles. Through data collection and processing,this paper uses the mixed logit model to recognize the network effect of the electric vehicles industry. And according to the individual attributes,consumer habits,consumer awareness and the willingness of environmental protection,this paper divides the consumer sample into groups to investigate the heterogeneity of the network effect. The results show that the using proportion of surrounding relatives and friends and supporting infrastructure construction can enhance the consumers' willingness to buy electric cars,this is to say that the direct and indirect network effects are very significant. The purchasing preferences of different types of consumers are different,for consumers who have had a car and have higher household income,the role of the network effect is more apparent. And for the consumers who have more annual travel distance and monthly travel times,know more about the electric cars brand and preferential policies, and have stronger environmental protection willingness,the electric vehicles purchasing preferences are more easily affected by the network effect.
The scale of users and matched infrastructure constitute the network foundation of electric vehicles. Giving play to the network effect is very important for the electric vehicles market and the related industrial development. Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis of direct and indirect network effect influencing the consumers' electric vehicles purchasing preference,this paper chooses the discrete choice experiment method to research the main factors considered by consumers when buying electric vehicles. Through data collection and processing,this paper uses the mixed logit model to recognize the network effect of the electric vehicles industry. And according to the individual attributes,consumer habits,consumer awareness and the willingness of environmental protection,this paper divides the consumer sample into groups to investigate the heterogeneity of the network effect. The results show that the using proportion of surrounding relatives and friends and supporting infrastructure construction can enhance the consumers' willingness to buy electric cars,this is to say that the direct and indirect network effects are very significant. The purchasing preferences of different types of consumers are different,for consumers who have had a car and have higher household income,the role of the network effect is more apparent. And for the consumers who have more annual travel distance and monthly travel times,know more about the electric cars brand and preferential policies, and have stronger environmental protection willingness,the electric vehicles purchasing preferences are more easily affected by the network effect.
引文
[1]ARTLE R,AVEROUS C.The telephonesystemasa public good:Static and dynamic aspects[J].Bell Journal of Economics,1973,4(1):89-100.
[2]ROHLFS J.a theory of interdependent demand for a communication service[J].Bell Journalof Economics,1974,5(1):16-37.
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[4]SACHIN G,DIPAK C J,MOHANBIR S S.Modeling the evolution of markets with indirect network externalities:An application to digital television[J].Marketing Science,1999,18(3),396-416.
[5]HIROSHI O.The role of network effects in the US VCR market 1978-1986[J].Journal of Economics and Management Strategy,2003,12(4),447-494.
[6]VENKATESH S,BERRY L B.Network effects and competition:An empirical analysis of the home video game industry[J].Strategic Management Journal,2003,24,375-384.
[7]AMIYA B,TRIDIB M,RAJ S P.Indirect network externality effects onproduct attributes[J].Marketing Science,2003,22(2),209-221.
[8]CHIENFU C,OZ S.Network effects without network externalities[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,1990,8,259-270.
[9]JEFFREY C,AND NEIL G.Network effects,software provisionand standardization[J].Journal of Industrial Economics,1992,40,85-103.
[10]WANG Q,XIE J H.Will consumers be willing to paymore when your competitors adopt your technology?The impactsof the supporting-firm base in markets with network effects[J].Journal of Marketing,2011,75(9):1-17.
[11]CWL HILL.Establishing a Standard:Competitive strategy andtechnological standards in Winner-take-all industries[J].Academyof Management Executive,1997,11(2):7-25.
[12]WANG Q,XIE J H.Will consumers be willing to pay more when your competitors adopt your technology?The impacts of the Supporting-firm base in markets with network effects[J].Journal of Marketing,2010,75(5):1-51.
[13]POTOGLOU D,KANAROGLOU P S.Household demand and willingness to pay for clean vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2007,12(4):264-274.
[14]Adler T,Wargelin L,Kostyniuk L P,et al.Incentives for Alternative Fuel Vehicles:A Large-scale Stated Preference Experiment[C].Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research,Lucerne,2003.
[15]KRUPA J S,RIZZO D M,EPPSTEIN M J,et al.Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2014,64:14-31.
[16]JOHN P H,LIU Y,ELEA M F,et al.Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption?Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S.and China[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2015,73:96-112.
[17]LANE B,POTTER S.The adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK:Exploring the consumer Attitude-action gap[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2007,15(11):1085-1092.
[18]ANCO H,MARK J K.A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the netherlands[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2014,61:199-215.
[19]KAHN M E,VAUGHN R K.Green market geography:The spatial clustering of hybrid vehicles and LEED registered buildings[J].The BE Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,2009,9(2):1-24.
[20]AXSEN J,MOUNTAIN D C,JACCARD M.Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect:The case of hybrid-electric vehicles[J].Resource and Energy Economics,2009,31(3):221-238.
[21]PAULUS M,JIMENA E,MARK J.The neighbor effect:Simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicles technologies[J].Ecological Economics,2008,68(1-2):504-516.
[22]王宁,晏润林,刘亚斐.电动汽车潜在消费者特征识别和市场接受度研究[J].中国软科学,2015(10):70-84.
[23]STRUBENJ,STERMAN J D.Transition challengesfor alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2008,35:1070-1097.
[24]PLTZ P,GNANN T,WIETSCHEL M.Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data—Part I:Model structure and validation[J].Ecological Economics,2014,107:411-421.
[25]YU Z,LI S,TONG L.On market dynamics of electric vehicle diffusion[C]//Communication,Control,and Computing.IEEE,2015:1051-1057.
[26]YU Z,LI S,TONG L.Market dynamics and indirect network effects in electric vehicle diffusion[J].Transportation Research Part D Transport&Environment,2016,47:336-356.
[27]CARLEY S,KRAUSE R M,LANE B W,et al.Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle:A survey of early impressions in large US cites[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2013,18:39-45.
[28]KNEZ M,JEREB B,OBRECHT M.Factors influencing the purchasing decisions of low emission cars:A study of slovenia[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2014,30:53-61.
[29]KAHN M E.Do greens drive hummers or hybrids?Environmental ideology as a determinant of consumer choice[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2007,54(2):129-145.
[30]AXSEN J,KURANI K S.Hybrid,Plug-in hybrid,or electric—What do car buyers want?[J].Energy Policy,2013,61:532-543.
[31]OLIVER J D,ROSEN D E.Applying the environmental propensityframework:A segmented approach to hybrid electricvehicle marketing strategies[J].Journal of Marketing Theoryand Practice,2010,18(4):377-393.
[32]HIDRUE M K,PARSONS G R,KEMPTON W.Willingnessto pay for electric vehicles and their attributes[J].Resourceand Energy Economics,2011,33(3):686-705.
[33]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.192-194.
(1)正交实验设计所用的软件是SPSS 19.0。
(1)样本库来源有网站合作伙伴,搜索引擎,博客/论坛招募,会员口碑推荐以及在“问卷星”上填写过问卷并且自愿接收邀请继续填写其它感兴趣的问卷的人群。
(1)混合Logit模型是在条件Logit模型的基础上,加入只随个体而变的解释变量,因此本文只详细介绍更加复杂的混合Logit模型,省略条件Logit模型的介绍。
[2]ROHLFS J.a theory of interdependent demand for a communication service[J].Bell Journalof Economics,1974,5(1):16-37.
[3]MICHAEL K,CARL S.Network externalities,competition and compatibility[J].American Economic Review,1985,75(3),424-440.
[4]SACHIN G,DIPAK C J,MOHANBIR S S.Modeling the evolution of markets with indirect network externalities:An application to digital television[J].Marketing Science,1999,18(3),396-416.
[5]HIROSHI O.The role of network effects in the US VCR market 1978-1986[J].Journal of Economics and Management Strategy,2003,12(4),447-494.
[6]VENKATESH S,BERRY L B.Network effects and competition:An empirical analysis of the home video game industry[J].Strategic Management Journal,2003,24,375-384.
[7]AMIYA B,TRIDIB M,RAJ S P.Indirect network externality effects onproduct attributes[J].Marketing Science,2003,22(2),209-221.
[8]CHIENFU C,OZ S.Network effects without network externalities[J].International Journal of Industrial Organization,1990,8,259-270.
[9]JEFFREY C,AND NEIL G.Network effects,software provisionand standardization[J].Journal of Industrial Economics,1992,40,85-103.
[10]WANG Q,XIE J H.Will consumers be willing to paymore when your competitors adopt your technology?The impactsof the supporting-firm base in markets with network effects[J].Journal of Marketing,2011,75(9):1-17.
[11]CWL HILL.Establishing a Standard:Competitive strategy andtechnological standards in Winner-take-all industries[J].Academyof Management Executive,1997,11(2):7-25.
[12]WANG Q,XIE J H.Will consumers be willing to pay more when your competitors adopt your technology?The impacts of the Supporting-firm base in markets with network effects[J].Journal of Marketing,2010,75(5):1-51.
[13]POTOGLOU D,KANAROGLOU P S.Household demand and willingness to pay for clean vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2007,12(4):264-274.
[14]Adler T,Wargelin L,Kostyniuk L P,et al.Incentives for Alternative Fuel Vehicles:A Large-scale Stated Preference Experiment[C].Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Travel Behavior Research,Lucerne,2003.
[15]KRUPA J S,RIZZO D M,EPPSTEIN M J,et al.Analysis of a consumer survey on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2014,64:14-31.
[16]JOHN P H,LIU Y,ELEA M F,et al.Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption?Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S.and China[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2015,73:96-112.
[17]LANE B,POTTER S.The adoption of cleaner vehicles in the UK:Exploring the consumer Attitude-action gap[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2007,15(11):1085-1092.
[18]ANCO H,MARK J K.A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the netherlands[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2014,61:199-215.
[19]KAHN M E,VAUGHN R K.Green market geography:The spatial clustering of hybrid vehicles and LEED registered buildings[J].The BE Journal of Economic Analysis&Policy,2009,9(2):1-24.
[20]AXSEN J,MOUNTAIN D C,JACCARD M.Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect:The case of hybrid-electric vehicles[J].Resource and Energy Economics,2009,31(3):221-238.
[21]PAULUS M,JIMENA E,MARK J.The neighbor effect:Simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicles technologies[J].Ecological Economics,2008,68(1-2):504-516.
[22]王宁,晏润林,刘亚斐.电动汽车潜在消费者特征识别和市场接受度研究[J].中国软科学,2015(10):70-84.
[23]STRUBENJ,STERMAN J D.Transition challengesfor alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems[J].Environment and Planning B:Planning and Design,2008,35:1070-1097.
[24]PLTZ P,GNANN T,WIETSCHEL M.Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data—Part I:Model structure and validation[J].Ecological Economics,2014,107:411-421.
[25]YU Z,LI S,TONG L.On market dynamics of electric vehicle diffusion[C]//Communication,Control,and Computing.IEEE,2015:1051-1057.
[26]YU Z,LI S,TONG L.Market dynamics and indirect network effects in electric vehicle diffusion[J].Transportation Research Part D Transport&Environment,2016,47:336-356.
[27]CARLEY S,KRAUSE R M,LANE B W,et al.Intent to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle:A survey of early impressions in large US cites[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2013,18:39-45.
[28]KNEZ M,JEREB B,OBRECHT M.Factors influencing the purchasing decisions of low emission cars:A study of slovenia[J].Transportation Research Part D:Transport and Environment,2014,30:53-61.
[29]KAHN M E.Do greens drive hummers or hybrids?Environmental ideology as a determinant of consumer choice[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2007,54(2):129-145.
[30]AXSEN J,KURANI K S.Hybrid,Plug-in hybrid,or electric—What do car buyers want?[J].Energy Policy,2013,61:532-543.
[31]OLIVER J D,ROSEN D E.Applying the environmental propensityframework:A segmented approach to hybrid electricvehicle marketing strategies[J].Journal of Marketing Theoryand Practice,2010,18(4):377-393.
[32]HIDRUE M K,PARSONS G R,KEMPTON W.Willingnessto pay for electric vehicles and their attributes[J].Resourceand Energy Economics,2011,33(3):686-705.
[33]陈强.高级计量经济学及Stata应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2014.192-194.
(1)正交实验设计所用的软件是SPSS 19.0。
(1)样本库来源有网站合作伙伴,搜索引擎,博客/论坛招募,会员口碑推荐以及在“问卷星”上填写过问卷并且自愿接收邀请继续填写其它感兴趣的问卷的人群。
(1)混合Logit模型是在条件Logit模型的基础上,加入只随个体而变的解释变量,因此本文只详细介绍更加复杂的混合Logit模型,省略条件Logit模型的介绍。