融合感知差异的货代和货主选择行为异质性揭示
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摘要
因角色和感知差异,托运人货运方式选择行为存在显著异质性,故以义乌至宁波出口集装箱内陆段运输通道的公路和铁路运输链为研究对象进行实证研究。通过意向调查采集托运人特征、货物特征和运输链特征数据,使用结构方程模型揭示其与表征感知差异的潜变量方便性和可靠性的关系,结果表明员工数、响应时间、短驳距离和准点次数与潜变量存在显著相关性。包含潜变量的分类模型说明货代和货主的选择行为显著不同:货代对铁路运输链时间变化最敏感,而货主则对可靠性变化最敏感;货代的时间价值是货主的3倍,而其方便性价值仅为货主的一半;铁路对货代的营销应侧重时间,而对货主的营销应侧重费用。
Shippers' freight mode choice behaviors show significant heterogeneity because of their different roles and perception.Thus,the road transportation chain and railroad transportation chain in inland freight corridor of export container from Yiwu to Ningbo Port were considered as empirical research objects.Shipper features,cargo features and transportation chain features were collected by stated preference survey to reveal the relationship between these variables and latent variables such as convenience and reliability.Based on the structural equation model,latent variables were used to present perception discrepancy,indicating that number of employees,response time,drayage distance and punctuality times had significant correlation with latent variables.The classification discrete choice models with latent variables show that the behaviors of freight forwarders and shippers are significantly different.Freight forwarders are more sensitive to the time change of railroad transportation chain,while shippers are more sensitive to the change of reliability.The value of time of freight forwarders is three times that of shippers.However,the willingness-to-pay for convenience of freight forwarders is only half of that of shippers.The railroad department should focus on time when marketing toward freight forwarders,while focusing on cost when marketing toward shippers.
Shippers' freight mode choice behaviors show significant heterogeneity because of their different roles and perception.Thus,the road transportation chain and railroad transportation chain in inland freight corridor of export container from Yiwu to Ningbo Port were considered as empirical research objects.Shipper features,cargo features and transportation chain features were collected by stated preference survey to reveal the relationship between these variables and latent variables such as convenience and reliability.Based on the structural equation model,latent variables were used to present perception discrepancy,indicating that number of employees,response time,drayage distance and punctuality times had significant correlation with latent variables.The classification discrete choice models with latent variables show that the behaviors of freight forwarders and shippers are significantly different.Freight forwarders are more sensitive to the time change of railroad transportation chain,while shippers are more sensitive to the change of reliability.The value of time of freight forwarders is three times that of shippers.However,the willingness-to-pay for convenience of freight forwarders is only half of that of shippers.The railroad department should focus on time when marketing toward freight forwarders,while focusing on cost when marketing toward shippers.
引文
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[15]严作人,杜豫川,张戎.运输经济学[M].2版.北京:人民交通出版社,2009.
[2]ZHANG R,ZHU L.Threshold Incorporating Freight Choice Modeling for Hinterland Leg Transportation Chain of Export Container[J].Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2018,in press.
[3]BERGANTINO A S,BIERLAIRE M,CATALANO M,et al.Taste Heterogeneity and Latent Preferences in the Choice Behaviour of Freight Transport Operators[J].Transport Policy,2013,30(3):77-91.
[4]MURPHY P R,DALEY J M,DALENBERG D R.Selecting Links and Nodes in International Transportation:an Intermediary’s Perspective[J].Transportation Journal,1991,31(2):33-40.
[5]郭玉静.国际集装箱运输链选择行为研究[D].上海:同济大学,2012:21-34.
[6]ARUNOTAYANUN K,POLAK J W.Taste Heterogeneity and Market Segmentation in Freight Shippers’Mode Choice Behavior[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2011,47(2):138-148.
[7]HEHSHER D A,PUCKETT S M,Concession and Agreement in Freight Distribution Chains:Subject to Distancebased User Charges[J].International Journal of Logistics Research&Applications,2008,11(2):81-100.
[8]陶学宗,张戎.基于ICLV的托运人货运服务选择行为建模[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015,15(2):122-128.TAO Xuezong,ZHANG Rong.Modeling the Shippers’Choice Behavior of Freight Service Based on ICLV Model[J].Journal of Transportation System Engineering and Information Technology,2015,15(2):122-128.
[9]张戎,郭玉静,闫哲彬,等.基于Nested-Logit模型的国际集装箱运输链选择行为研究[J].铁道学报,2011,33(7):8-13.ZHANG Rong,GUO Yujing,YAN Zhebin,et al.Study on International Container Transportation Chain Choice Behavior Based on Nested-Logit Model[J].Journal of the China Railway Society,2011,33(7):8-13.
[10]TRAIN K E.Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2009.
[11]DANIELIS R,MARCUCCI E,ROTARIS L.LogisticsManagers’Stated Preferences for Freight Service Attributes[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2005,41(3):201-215.
[12]BEN-AKIVA M,WALKER J,BERNARDINO A T,et al.Integration of Choice and Latent Variable Models[R].Boston:Massachusetts Institute of Technology,1999.
[13]陶学宗.国际集装箱内陆段运输链选择行为模型研究[D].上海:同济大学,2013:115-144.
[14]PUCKETT S M,HENSHER D A.The Role of Attribute Processing Strategies in Estimating the Preferences of Road Freight Stakeholders[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2008,44(3):379-395.
[15]严作人,杜豫川,张戎.运输经济学[M].2版.北京:人民交通出版社,2009.