吉林省春玉米农业气候资源适宜度时空分布特征
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摘要
为了明确吉林省春玉米农业气候资源的适宜性,利用模糊数学方法建立了吉林省春玉米各生育期的温度适宜度、降水适宜度、日照时数适宜度和气候适宜度模型,并分析了温度适宜度、降水适宜度、日照时数适宜度和气候适宜度的时空分布特征。结果表明:1961—2010年吉林省春玉米全生育期的温度适宜度呈西高东低的空间分布特征,温度适宜度普遍为0.70以上,总体较适宜,且温度适宜度呈增大的趋势;春玉米营养生长期和生殖生长期的温度适宜度总体与全生育期的温度适宜度分布一致。近50 a吉林省春玉米各生育期日照时数适宜度较高,普遍为0.80—1.00,呈西高东低的空间分布特征。春玉米降水适宜度年际波动幅度较大,普遍为0.40—0.60。吉林省春玉米全生育期气候适宜度基本为0.60—0.75;春玉米营养生长期气候适宜度多为0.70以上,比全生育期气候适宜度偏高;而春玉米生殖生长期的气候适宜度多为0.70以下,比全生育期气候适宜度偏低。近50 a吉林省春玉米气候适宜度不存在明显的区域差异,春玉米各生育期气候适宜度总体呈不显著的减小趋势。
In order to understand the agricultural climate resources suitability of spring maize in Jilin province,temperature suitability( TS),precipitation suitability( PS),sunshine hour suitability( SS) and climate suitability( CS) models for the whole growing season,vegetative growth stage,and reproductive growth stage were established using a fuzzy mathematical method. Then the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TS,PS,SS,and CS were analyzed. The results showthat,in recent 50 years,the TS for the whole growing season of spring maize in Jilin province is generally more than 0. 70 with an increasing trend,which is suitable for maize growing as a whole. TS is higher in western Jilin and lower in eastern Jilin. The distributions of the TS at vegetative and reproductive growth stages are in consistent with that of the whole growing season. The SS at each growth stage of spring maize in Jilin province is higher with the value between 0. 80 and 1. 00. SS is higher in western Jilin and lower in western Jilin. The PS of spring maize at each growth stage is between 0. 40 and 0. 60,which has larger variation. CS for the whole growing season of spring maize is between 0. 60 and 0. 75. CS of vegetative growth stage,mostly above 0. 70,is higher than that of the whole growing season. However,CS of reproductive growth stage,mostly below0. 70,is lower than that of the whole growing season. For CS of maize in Jilin province,there are no obvious differences between areas. CS of each growth stage shows a decreasing trend though they have not passed the significant test.
In order to understand the agricultural climate resources suitability of spring maize in Jilin province,temperature suitability( TS),precipitation suitability( PS),sunshine hour suitability( SS) and climate suitability( CS) models for the whole growing season,vegetative growth stage,and reproductive growth stage were established using a fuzzy mathematical method. Then the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of TS,PS,SS,and CS were analyzed. The results showthat,in recent 50 years,the TS for the whole growing season of spring maize in Jilin province is generally more than 0. 70 with an increasing trend,which is suitable for maize growing as a whole. TS is higher in western Jilin and lower in eastern Jilin. The distributions of the TS at vegetative and reproductive growth stages are in consistent with that of the whole growing season. The SS at each growth stage of spring maize in Jilin province is higher with the value between 0. 80 and 1. 00. SS is higher in western Jilin and lower in western Jilin. The PS of spring maize at each growth stage is between 0. 40 and 0. 60,which has larger variation. CS for the whole growing season of spring maize is between 0. 60 and 0. 75. CS of vegetative growth stage,mostly above 0. 70,is higher than that of the whole growing season. However,CS of reproductive growth stage,mostly below0. 70,is lower than that of the whole growing season. For CS of maize in Jilin province,there are no obvious differences between areas. CS of each growth stage shows a decreasing trend though they have not passed the significant test.
引文
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[13]王连喜,顾嘉熠,李琪,等.江苏省冬小麦适宜度时空变化研究[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):67-75.
[14]俞芬,千怀遂,段海来.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):537-542.
[15]任玉玉,千怀遂.河南省棉花气候适宜度变化趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(1):87-93.
[16]帅细强,陆魁东,黄晚华.不同方法在湖南省早稻产量动态预报中的比较[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):103-111.
[17]易灵伟,杨爱萍,余焰文,等.基于气候适宜指数的江西晚稻产量动态预报模型构建及应用[J].气象,2016,42(7):885-891.
[18]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.耦合土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数在山东省冬小麦产量动态预报中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):187-194.
[19]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.山东省冬小麦产量动态集成预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(2):191-200.
[20]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.农业气象产量预报方法中权重系数的确定[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(2):106-111.
[2]李萌,申双和,褚荣浩,等.近30年中国农业气候资源分布及其变化趋势分析[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(21):1-11.
[3]张立波,景元书,陈传雷.1960—2010年中国华北东北地区热量资源时空变化[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(1):80-87.
[4]杨晓强,张立群,李帅,等.1980—2008年黑龙江省气候变暖及其对大豆种植的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(2):96-100.
[5]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
[6]赵俊芳,郭建平,张艳红,等.气候变化对农业影响研究综述[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(2):200-205.
[7]刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
[8]谭方颖,宋迎波,毛留喜,等.东北地区玉米气候适宜评价指标的确定与验证[J].干旱地区农业研究,2016,34(5):234-239.
[9]张建涛,李国强,陈丹丹,等.两种冬小麦气候适宜度评价模型的比较[J].作物杂志,2016(2):159-164.
[10]代立芹,李春强,康西言,等.基于气候和土壤水分综合适宜度指数的冬小麦产量动态预报模型[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(4):519-526.
[11]张建军,马晓群,许莹.安徽省一季稻生长气候适宜性评价指标的建立与试用[J].气象,2013,39(1):88-93.
[12]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报.2009,20(5):622-627.
[13]王连喜,顾嘉熠,李琪,等.江苏省冬小麦适宜度时空变化研究[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):67-75.
[14]俞芬,千怀遂,段海来.淮河流域水稻的气候适宜度及其变化趋势分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):537-542.
[15]任玉玉,千怀遂.河南省棉花气候适宜度变化趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(1):87-93.
[16]帅细强,陆魁东,黄晚华.不同方法在湖南省早稻产量动态预报中的比较[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):103-111.
[17]易灵伟,杨爱萍,余焰文,等.基于气候适宜指数的江西晚稻产量动态预报模型构建及应用[J].气象,2016,42(7):885-891.
[18]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.耦合土壤墒情的气候适宜度指数在山东省冬小麦产量动态预报中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(2):187-194.
[19]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.山东省冬小麦产量动态集成预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2016,27(2):191-200.
[20]邱美娟,宋迎波,王建林,等.农业气象产量预报方法中权重系数的确定[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(2):106-111.