末次冰盛期中国气候要素定量重建
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摘要
古气候定量化是古全球变化研究的核心目标之一.重建末次冰盛期时段((18±2)ka~(14)C)气候变化特征,对理解冰期-间冰期地球气候演化规律具有重要的意义.以往古气候要素定量重建,主要基于现代气候条件下孢粉-气候的统计学方法,因难以有效区分过去气候季节性变化和大气CO_2浓度降低对植物生长的影响,导致重建结果可能存在不确定性.本研究基于植物生理过程、新一代古气候定量重建的植被反演方法,考虑上述环境因子对植物生长的影响,利用新完善的中国第四纪孢粉数据库,重建了古气候的空间格局.结果表明,在末次冰盛期,大气CO_2浓度降低对中国古气候要素重建结果影响不显著;全国年均温比现在低约(5.6±0.8)℃,最冷月温度和最热月温度分别降低约(11.0±1.6)℃和(2.6±0.9)℃,且中国南方降温幅度达到约(5.5±0.5)℃,接近平均值的水平,年均温变化主要归因于冬季温度的降低;全国年降水量比现在低约(46.3±17.8)mm,其中北方降水减少约(51.2±21.4)mm,年降水变化主要源于夏季降水的减少.与古气候模拟结果的对比揭示,虽然现有模式能较好模拟年均气候模态,但是在季节性变化上与重建结果还有较大的差距,指示未来在提高古气候重建精度的同时需进一步加强古气候模式的季节性气候模拟能力.
引文
孙湘君,王琫瑜,宋长青.1996.中国北方部分科属花粉-气候响应面分析.中国科学D辑:地球科学,26:431-436
宋长青,孙湘君.1997.花粉-气候因子转换函数建立及其对古气候因子定量重建.植物学报,(6):554-560
吴海斌,罗运利,姜文英,李琴,孙爱芝,郭正堂.2016.植被反演方法的古气候要素定量化:现代数据检验.第四纪研究,36:520-529
郑卓,Guiot J.1999.中国热带地区40万年以来古气候的定量恢复.中山大学学报(自然科学版),38:94-98
中国第四纪孢粉数据库小组.2000.中国中全新世(6ka BP)和末次盛冰期(18ka BP)生物群区的重建.植物学报,42:1201-1209
中国第四纪孢粉数据库小组.2001.表土孢粉模拟的中国生物群区.植物学报,43:201-209
Bartlein P J,Harrison S P,Brewer S,Connor S,Davis B A S,Gajewski K,Guiot J,Harrison-Prentice T I,Henderson A,Peyron O,Prentice I C,Scholze M,Sepp?H,Shuman B,Sugita S,Thompson R S,Viau A E,Williams J,Wu H B.2011.Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka:A global synthesis.Clim Dyn,37:775-802
Braconnot P,Harrison S P,Kageyama M,Bartlein P J,MassonDelmotte V,Abe-Ouchi A,Otto-Bliesner B,Zhao Y.2012.Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data.Nat Clim Change,2:417-424
Braconnot P,Otto-Bliesner B,Harrison S,Joussaume S,Peterchmitt JY,Abe-Ouchi A,Crucifix M,Driesschaert E,Fichefet T,Hewitt CD,Kageyama M,Kitoh A,La?néA,Loutre M F,Marti O,Merkel U,Ramstein G,Valdes P,Weber S L,Yu Y,Zhao Y.2007.Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum-Part 1:Experiments and large-scale features.Clim Past,3:261-277
Chen F H,Xu Q H,Chen J H,Birks H J B,Liu J B,Zhang S R,Jin L Y,An C B,Telford R J,Cao X Y,Wang Z L,Zhang X J,Selvaraj K,Lu H Y,Li Y C,Zheng Z,Wang H P,Zhou A F,Dong G H,Zhang J W,Huang X Z,Bloemendal J,Rao Z G.2015.East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation.Sci Rep,5:11186
Chu G Q,Sun Q,Zhu Q Z,Shan Y B,Shang W Y,Ling Y,Su Y L,Xie M M,Wang X S,Liu J Q.2017.The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation.Quat Sci Rev,177:120-129
CLIMAP Project Members.1976.The surface of the ice-age Earth.Science,191:1131-1137
Crucifix M,Harrison S,Brierley C.2012.Recent and deep pasts in paleoclimate model intercomparison project.Eos Trans AGU,93:539
EPICA community members.2004.Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core.Nature,429:623-628
Farrera I,Harrison S P,Prentice I C,Ramstein G,Guiot J,Bartlein P J,Bonnefille R,Bush M,Cramer W,von Grafenstein U,Holmgren K,Hooghiemstra H,Hope G,Jolly D,Lauritzen S E,Ono Y,Pinot S,Stute M,Yu G.1999.Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum:A new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data.I.Vegetation,lake-levels and geochemistry.Clim Dyn,15:823-856
Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO).1995.Soil map of the world1:5000000.Paries:U.N.Education Science and Culture Organization
Guiot J,Cheddadi R,Prentice I C,Jolly D.1996.A method of biome and land surface mapping from pollen data:Application to Europe6000 years ago.Palaeoclimates-Data Model,1:311-324
Guiot J,Hély-Alleaume C,Wu H,Gaucherel C.2008.Interactions between vegetation and climate variability:What are the lessons of models and paleovegetation data.Comptes Rendus Geosci,340:595-601
Guiot J,Torre F,Jolly D,Peyron O,Boreux J J,Cheddadi R.2000.Inverse vegetation modeling by Monte Carlo sampling to reconstruct palaeoclimates under changed precipitation seasonality and CO2conditions:Application to glacial climate in Mediterranean region.Ecol Model,127:119-140
Hargreaves J C,Annan J D,Ohgaito R,Paul A,Abe-Ouchi A.2013.Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene.Clim Past,9:811-823
Harrison S P,Bartlein P J,Izumi K,Li G,Annan J,Hargreaves J,Braconnot P,Kageyama M.2015.Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeosimulations to improve climate projections.Nat Clim Change,5:735-743
Hostetler S W,Giorgi F,Bates G T,Bartlein P J.1994.Lakeatmosphere feedbacks associated with paleolakes Bonneville and Lahontan.Science,263:665-668
IPCC.2013.Climate Change:The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.350
Izumi K,Bartlein P J.2016.North American paleoclimate reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum using an inverse modeling through iterative forward modeling approach applied to pollen data.Geophys Res Lett,43:10965-10972
Jackson S T,Williams J W.2004.Modern analogs in quaternary paleoecology-Here today,gone yesterday,gone tomorrow?Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci,32:495-537
Jiang D,Lang X,Tian Z,Guo D.2011.Last glacial maximum climate over China from PMIP simulations.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,309:347-357
Jolly D,Haxeltine A.1997.Effect of low glacial atmospheric CO2on tropical African montane vegetation.Science,276:786-788
Joussaume S,Taylor K.1999.The paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project.In:Braconnot P,ed.Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project(PMIP).WCRP,Canada,La Huardie`re:Proceedings of the Third PMIP Workshop.9-24
Ju L X,Wang H J,Jiang D B.2007.Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum climate over East Asia with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,248:376-390
Kageyama M,Albani S,Braconnot P,Harrison S P,Hopcroft P O,Ivanovic R F,Lambert F,Marti O,Peltier W R,Peterschmitt J Y,Roche D M,Tarasov L,Zhang X,Brady E C,Haywood A M,LeGrande A N,Lunt D J,Mahowald N M,Mikolajewicz U,Nisancioglu K H,Otto-Bliesner B L,Renssen H,Tomas R A,Zhang Q,Abe-Ouchi A,Bartlein P J,Cao J,Li Q,Lohmann G,Ohgaito R,Shi X X,Volodin E,Yoshida K,Zhang X,Zheng W P.2017.The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 4:Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments.Geosci Model Dev,10:4035-4055
Kaplan J O.2001.Geophysical applications of vegetation modeling.Doctoral Dissertation.Lund:Lund University
Liu Z Y,Zhu J,Rosenthal Y,Zhang X,Otto-Bliesner B L,Timmermann A,Smith R S,Lohmann G,Zheng W P,Timm O E.2014.The Holocene temperature conundrum.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,111:E3501-E3505
MARGO Project Members.2009.Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum.Nature Geosci,2:127-132
Otto-Bliesner B L,Schneider R,Brady E C,Kucera M,Abe-Ouchi A,Bard E,Braconnot P,Crucifix M,Hewitt C D,Kageyama M,Marti O,Paul A,Rosell-MeléA,Waelbroeck C,Weber S L,Weinelt M,Yu Y.2009.A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum.Clim Dyn,32:799-815
Peyron O,Guiot J,Cheddadi R,Tarasov P,Reille M,de Beaulieu J L,Bottema S,Andrieu V.1998.Climatic reconstruction in Europe for18000 yr B.P.from pollen data.Quat Res,49:183-196
Pinot S,Ramstein G,Harrison S P,Prentice I C,Guiot J,Stute M,Joussaume S.1999.Tropical paleoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum:Comparison of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project(PMIP)simulations and paleodata.Clim Dyn,15:857-874
Prentice I C,Jolly D.2000.Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa.JBiogeogr,27:507-519
Street-Perrott F A,Huang Y,Perrott R A,Eglinton G,Barker P,Ben Khelifa L,Harkness D D,Olago D O.1997.Impact of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide on tropical mountain ecosystems.Science,278:1422-1426
Tian Z P,Jiang D B.2016.Revisiting last glacial maximum climate over China and East Asian monsoon using PMIP3 simulations.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,453:115-126
Wang M Y,Zheng Z,Man M L,Hu J F,Gao Q Z.2017.Branched GDGT-based paleotemperature reconstruction of the last 30000years in humid monsoon region of Southeast China.Chem Geol,463:94-102
Webb Ⅲ T.1985.A Global paleoclimatic data base for 6000 yr BP.Providence,RI(USA):Brown University,Department of Geological Sciences.25-34
Webb Ⅲ T,Anderson K H,Bartlein P J,Webb R S.1998.Late Quaternary climate change in eastern North America.Quat Sci Rev,17:587-606
Wu H B,Guiot J,Brewer S,Guo Z T.2007a.Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene:Reconstruction from pollen data using inverse vegetation modelling.Clim Dyn,29:211-229
Wu H B,Guiot J,Brewer S,Guo Z T,Peng C H.2007b.Dominant factors controlling glacial and interglacial variations in the treeline elevation in tropical Africa.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,104:9720-9724
宋长青,孙湘君.1997.花粉-气候因子转换函数建立及其对古气候因子定量重建.植物学报,(6):554-560
吴海斌,罗运利,姜文英,李琴,孙爱芝,郭正堂.2016.植被反演方法的古气候要素定量化:现代数据检验.第四纪研究,36:520-529
郑卓,Guiot J.1999.中国热带地区40万年以来古气候的定量恢复.中山大学学报(自然科学版),38:94-98
中国第四纪孢粉数据库小组.2000.中国中全新世(6ka BP)和末次盛冰期(18ka BP)生物群区的重建.植物学报,42:1201-1209
中国第四纪孢粉数据库小组.2001.表土孢粉模拟的中国生物群区.植物学报,43:201-209
Bartlein P J,Harrison S P,Brewer S,Connor S,Davis B A S,Gajewski K,Guiot J,Harrison-Prentice T I,Henderson A,Peyron O,Prentice I C,Scholze M,Sepp?H,Shuman B,Sugita S,Thompson R S,Viau A E,Williams J,Wu H B.2011.Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka:A global synthesis.Clim Dyn,37:775-802
Braconnot P,Harrison S P,Kageyama M,Bartlein P J,MassonDelmotte V,Abe-Ouchi A,Otto-Bliesner B,Zhao Y.2012.Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data.Nat Clim Change,2:417-424
Braconnot P,Otto-Bliesner B,Harrison S,Joussaume S,Peterchmitt JY,Abe-Ouchi A,Crucifix M,Driesschaert E,Fichefet T,Hewitt CD,Kageyama M,Kitoh A,La?néA,Loutre M F,Marti O,Merkel U,Ramstein G,Valdes P,Weber S L,Yu Y,Zhao Y.2007.Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum-Part 1:Experiments and large-scale features.Clim Past,3:261-277
Chen F H,Xu Q H,Chen J H,Birks H J B,Liu J B,Zhang S R,Jin L Y,An C B,Telford R J,Cao X Y,Wang Z L,Zhang X J,Selvaraj K,Lu H Y,Li Y C,Zheng Z,Wang H P,Zhou A F,Dong G H,Zhang J W,Huang X Z,Bloemendal J,Rao Z G.2015.East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability since the last deglaciation.Sci Rep,5:11186
Chu G Q,Sun Q,Zhu Q Z,Shan Y B,Shang W Y,Ling Y,Su Y L,Xie M M,Wang X S,Liu J Q.2017.The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation.Quat Sci Rev,177:120-129
CLIMAP Project Members.1976.The surface of the ice-age Earth.Science,191:1131-1137
Crucifix M,Harrison S,Brierley C.2012.Recent and deep pasts in paleoclimate model intercomparison project.Eos Trans AGU,93:539
EPICA community members.2004.Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core.Nature,429:623-628
Farrera I,Harrison S P,Prentice I C,Ramstein G,Guiot J,Bartlein P J,Bonnefille R,Bush M,Cramer W,von Grafenstein U,Holmgren K,Hooghiemstra H,Hope G,Jolly D,Lauritzen S E,Ono Y,Pinot S,Stute M,Yu G.1999.Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum:A new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data.I.Vegetation,lake-levels and geochemistry.Clim Dyn,15:823-856
Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO).1995.Soil map of the world1:5000000.Paries:U.N.Education Science and Culture Organization
Guiot J,Cheddadi R,Prentice I C,Jolly D.1996.A method of biome and land surface mapping from pollen data:Application to Europe6000 years ago.Palaeoclimates-Data Model,1:311-324
Guiot J,Hély-Alleaume C,Wu H,Gaucherel C.2008.Interactions between vegetation and climate variability:What are the lessons of models and paleovegetation data.Comptes Rendus Geosci,340:595-601
Guiot J,Torre F,Jolly D,Peyron O,Boreux J J,Cheddadi R.2000.Inverse vegetation modeling by Monte Carlo sampling to reconstruct palaeoclimates under changed precipitation seasonality and CO2conditions:Application to glacial climate in Mediterranean region.Ecol Model,127:119-140
Hargreaves J C,Annan J D,Ohgaito R,Paul A,Abe-Ouchi A.2013.Skill and reliability of climate model ensembles at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene.Clim Past,9:811-823
Harrison S P,Bartlein P J,Izumi K,Li G,Annan J,Hargreaves J,Braconnot P,Kageyama M.2015.Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeosimulations to improve climate projections.Nat Clim Change,5:735-743
Hostetler S W,Giorgi F,Bates G T,Bartlein P J.1994.Lakeatmosphere feedbacks associated with paleolakes Bonneville and Lahontan.Science,263:665-668
IPCC.2013.Climate Change:The Physical Science Basis.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.350
Izumi K,Bartlein P J.2016.North American paleoclimate reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum using an inverse modeling through iterative forward modeling approach applied to pollen data.Geophys Res Lett,43:10965-10972
Jackson S T,Williams J W.2004.Modern analogs in quaternary paleoecology-Here today,gone yesterday,gone tomorrow?Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci,32:495-537
Jiang D,Lang X,Tian Z,Guo D.2011.Last glacial maximum climate over China from PMIP simulations.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,309:347-357
Jolly D,Haxeltine A.1997.Effect of low glacial atmospheric CO2on tropical African montane vegetation.Science,276:786-788
Joussaume S,Taylor K.1999.The paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project.In:Braconnot P,ed.Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project(PMIP).WCRP,Canada,La Huardie`re:Proceedings of the Third PMIP Workshop.9-24
Ju L X,Wang H J,Jiang D B.2007.Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum climate over East Asia with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,248:376-390
Kageyama M,Albani S,Braconnot P,Harrison S P,Hopcroft P O,Ivanovic R F,Lambert F,Marti O,Peltier W R,Peterschmitt J Y,Roche D M,Tarasov L,Zhang X,Brady E C,Haywood A M,LeGrande A N,Lunt D J,Mahowald N M,Mikolajewicz U,Nisancioglu K H,Otto-Bliesner B L,Renssen H,Tomas R A,Zhang Q,Abe-Ouchi A,Bartlein P J,Cao J,Li Q,Lohmann G,Ohgaito R,Shi X X,Volodin E,Yoshida K,Zhang X,Zheng W P.2017.The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 4:Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments.Geosci Model Dev,10:4035-4055
Kaplan J O.2001.Geophysical applications of vegetation modeling.Doctoral Dissertation.Lund:Lund University
Liu Z Y,Zhu J,Rosenthal Y,Zhang X,Otto-Bliesner B L,Timmermann A,Smith R S,Lohmann G,Zheng W P,Timm O E.2014.The Holocene temperature conundrum.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,111:E3501-E3505
MARGO Project Members.2009.Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum.Nature Geosci,2:127-132
Otto-Bliesner B L,Schneider R,Brady E C,Kucera M,Abe-Ouchi A,Bard E,Braconnot P,Crucifix M,Hewitt C D,Kageyama M,Marti O,Paul A,Rosell-MeléA,Waelbroeck C,Weber S L,Weinelt M,Yu Y.2009.A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum.Clim Dyn,32:799-815
Peyron O,Guiot J,Cheddadi R,Tarasov P,Reille M,de Beaulieu J L,Bottema S,Andrieu V.1998.Climatic reconstruction in Europe for18000 yr B.P.from pollen data.Quat Res,49:183-196
Pinot S,Ramstein G,Harrison S P,Prentice I C,Guiot J,Stute M,Joussaume S.1999.Tropical paleoclimates at the Last Glacial Maximum:Comparison of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project(PMIP)simulations and paleodata.Clim Dyn,15:857-874
Prentice I C,Jolly D.2000.Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa.JBiogeogr,27:507-519
Street-Perrott F A,Huang Y,Perrott R A,Eglinton G,Barker P,Ben Khelifa L,Harkness D D,Olago D O.1997.Impact of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide on tropical mountain ecosystems.Science,278:1422-1426
Tian Z P,Jiang D B.2016.Revisiting last glacial maximum climate over China and East Asian monsoon using PMIP3 simulations.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol,453:115-126
Wang M Y,Zheng Z,Man M L,Hu J F,Gao Q Z.2017.Branched GDGT-based paleotemperature reconstruction of the last 30000years in humid monsoon region of Southeast China.Chem Geol,463:94-102
Webb Ⅲ T.1985.A Global paleoclimatic data base for 6000 yr BP.Providence,RI(USA):Brown University,Department of Geological Sciences.25-34
Webb Ⅲ T,Anderson K H,Bartlein P J,Webb R S.1998.Late Quaternary climate change in eastern North America.Quat Sci Rev,17:587-606
Wu H B,Guiot J,Brewer S,Guo Z T.2007a.Climatic changes in Eurasia and Africa at the last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene:Reconstruction from pollen data using inverse vegetation modelling.Clim Dyn,29:211-229
Wu H B,Guiot J,Brewer S,Guo Z T,Peng C H.2007b.Dominant factors controlling glacial and interglacial variations in the treeline elevation in tropical Africa.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA,104:9720-9724