基于湿位涡和积雪效率的降雪预报技术探讨
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摘要
本文对南京地区2015年的一次强降雪过程进行了湿位涡诊断分析,根据2008—2015年的57次强降雪个例归纳出了积雪效率与地面2 m气温的关系。结果表明:湿位涡正压项对降雪强度变化有较好的指示意义;结合湿位涡斜压项和地面气温可以较好地判断降雪落区,且强降雪落区和湿位涡斜压项的大值中心对应较好;积雪效率和地面2 m气温是分段函数关系,利用该统计关系及气温、降雪量的预报,可以作出积雪深度的预报。
The Moist Potential Vorticity( MPV) of a severe snowstorm process during 2015 in Nanjing was diagnostically analyzed the firstly,and then,57 heavy snow cases during 2008 to 2015 were studied to conclude the relationship between snow accumulation efficiency and 2-meter temperature. Results showed that the barotropic item o MPV has good agreement with snowfall intensity. The snowfall area was well forecasted by combining the baroclinic item of MPV and the surface temperature,and the heavy snowfall area was well corresponding with the large value center of the baroclinic item of MPV. The snow accumulation efficiency was closely determined by surface 2-meter temperature. Their relationship,temperature and snowfall amount could be used to forecast the snowfall depth.
The Moist Potential Vorticity( MPV) of a severe snowstorm process during 2015 in Nanjing was diagnostically analyzed the firstly,and then,57 heavy snow cases during 2008 to 2015 were studied to conclude the relationship between snow accumulation efficiency and 2-meter temperature. Results showed that the barotropic item o MPV has good agreement with snowfall intensity. The snowfall area was well forecasted by combining the baroclinic item of MPV and the surface temperature,and the heavy snowfall area was well corresponding with the large value center of the baroclinic item of MPV. The snow accumulation efficiency was closely determined by surface 2-meter temperature. Their relationship,temperature and snowfall amount could be used to forecast the snowfall depth.
引文
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[11]李德俊,熊守权,柳草,等.鄂西北两次强降雪的滴谱特征和积雪深度预估方法.气象,2014,40(5):612-618.LI Dejun,XIONG Shouquan,LIU Cao,et al.Droplet spectrum characteristics and depth forecast method of two snowstorms in Northwest of Hubei.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),2014,40(5):612-618.
[12]马吉晖,李玉香.通化地区积雪深度预报方法研究及服务对策.吉林气象,2012(4):29-33.MA Jihui,LI Yuxiang.Forecasting method and service counter measure on the snowfall depth in Tonghua area.Jilin Meteorology(in Chinese),2012(4):29-33.
[13]杨琨,薛建军.使用加密降雪资料分析降雪量和积雪深度关系.应用气象学报,2013,24(3):349-355.YANG Kun,XUE Jianjun.The relationship between snowfall and snow depth using intensive snowfall observations.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),2013,24(3):349-355.
[14]Byun K Y,Yang Jun,Lee T Y.A snow-ratio equation and its application to numerical snowfall prediction.Wea.Forecasting,2008,23(4):644-658.
[15]陈创买,郭英琼,刘丽英.论假相当位温的数值计算(一).中山大学学报(自然科学版),1989,28(2):111-116.CHEN Chuangmai,GUO Yingqiong,LIU Liying.On the numerical computation of potential pseudo-equivalent temperature(I).Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni(in Chinese),1989,28(2):111-116.
[16]Judson A,Doesken N.Density of freshly fallen snow in the central Rocky Mountains.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,2000,81(7):1577-1587.
[2]孙秀忠,罗勇,张霞,等.近46 a来我国降雪变化特征分析.高原气象,2010,29(6):1594-1601.SUN Xiuzhong,LUO Yong,ZHANG Xia,et al.Analysis on snowfall change characteristic of China in recent 46 years.Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),2010,29(6):1594-1601.
[3]沈玉伟,孙琦旻.2010年冬季浙江两次强降雪过程的对比分析.气象,2013,39(2):218-225.SHEN Yuwei,SUN Qimin.Contrast analysis of two heavy snowfall events in Zhejiang.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),2013,39(2):218-225.
[4]姚蓉,唐佳,唐明晖,等.“14·02”湖南三次雨雪过程对比分析.气象,2014,40(12):1500-1506.YAO Rong,TANG Jia,TANG Minghui,et al.Diagnostic analysis of three rain and snow processes in Hunan in February2014.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),2014,40(12):1500-1506.
[5]孟雪峰,孙永刚,姜艳丰.内蒙古东北部一次致灾大到暴雪天气分析.气象,2012,38(7):877-883.MENG Xuefeng,SUN Yonggang,JIANG Yanfeng.Weather analysis on a disastrous heavy snow in Northeast of Inner Mongolia on November 20,2010.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),2012,38(7):877-883.
[6]张备,尹东屏,严文莲,等.2008年江苏持续性降雪中的水汽和动力抬升机制分析.灾害学,2012,27(2):29-33,42.ZHANG Bei,YIN Dongping,YAN Wenlian,et al.The water vapor and dynamic lifting mechanism of continuous snowfall in2008 in Jiangsu.Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),2012,27(2):29-33,42.
[7]蒋大凯,闵锦忠,阎琦,等.辽宁两类降雪过程的对比及定量降雪预报指标.气象科学,2012,32(2):219-225.JIANG Dakai,MIN Jinzhong,YAN Qi,et al.Comparative analysis on two types of snow process and quantitative indicators of snow forecast in Liaoning province.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences(in Chinese),2012,32(2):219-225.
[8]索渺清,丁一汇.南支槽与孟加拉湾风暴结合对一次高原暴雪过程的影响.气象,2014,40(9):1033-1047.SUO Miaoqing,DING Yihui.A case study on the effect of southern branch trough in the subtropical westerlies combined with storm over the Bay of Bengal on Plateau snowstorm.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),2014,40(9):1033-1047.
[9]马新荣,任余龙,丁治英.青藏高原东北侧一次暴雪过程的湿位涡分析.干旱气象,2008,26(1):57-63.MA Xinrong,REN Yulong,DING Zhiying.Analysis of moist potential vorticity for a snowstorm process in the northeast side of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),2008,26(1):57-63.
[10]廖波,杜正静.湿位涡在贵州“2011年1月17—20日”持续性强降雪中的应用.贵州气象,2011,35(3):27-30.LIAO Bo,DU Zhengjing.The application of MPV in a heavy snow storm in Guizhou on Jan 17—20th of 2011.Journal of Guizhou Meteorology(in Chinese),2011,35(3):27-30.
[11]李德俊,熊守权,柳草,等.鄂西北两次强降雪的滴谱特征和积雪深度预估方法.气象,2014,40(5):612-618.LI Dejun,XIONG Shouquan,LIU Cao,et al.Droplet spectrum characteristics and depth forecast method of two snowstorms in Northwest of Hubei.Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),2014,40(5):612-618.
[12]马吉晖,李玉香.通化地区积雪深度预报方法研究及服务对策.吉林气象,2012(4):29-33.MA Jihui,LI Yuxiang.Forecasting method and service counter measure on the snowfall depth in Tonghua area.Jilin Meteorology(in Chinese),2012(4):29-33.
[13]杨琨,薛建军.使用加密降雪资料分析降雪量和积雪深度关系.应用气象学报,2013,24(3):349-355.YANG Kun,XUE Jianjun.The relationship between snowfall and snow depth using intensive snowfall observations.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),2013,24(3):349-355.
[14]Byun K Y,Yang Jun,Lee T Y.A snow-ratio equation and its application to numerical snowfall prediction.Wea.Forecasting,2008,23(4):644-658.
[15]陈创买,郭英琼,刘丽英.论假相当位温的数值计算(一).中山大学学报(自然科学版),1989,28(2):111-116.CHEN Chuangmai,GUO Yingqiong,LIU Liying.On the numerical computation of potential pseudo-equivalent temperature(I).Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni(in Chinese),1989,28(2):111-116.
[16]Judson A,Doesken N.Density of freshly fallen snow in the central Rocky Mountains.Bull.Amer.Meteor.Soc.,2000,81(7):1577-1587.