动力因子对2006“碧利斯”台风暴雨的诊断分析
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摘要
本文利用2006年登陆台风"碧利斯"暴雨过程高分辨率数值模拟资料,结合湿热力平流参数、广义对流涡度矢量垂直分量、水汽螺旋度、热力螺旋度、散度垂直通量、热力散度垂直通量、热力切变平流参数和Q*矢量散度等8个动力因子,对"碧利斯"台风暴雨进行诊断分析。结果指出:(1)8个动力因子在"碧利斯"台风强降水区均表现为强信号,其中,水汽螺旋度、热力螺旋度、散度垂直通量、热力散度垂直通量等动力因子与降水强度的相关系数均达0.99以上,与总云水物质的相关系数也均达0.97以上,而热力切变平流参数与上述二者的相关系数最低,达0.5左右;(2)8个动力因子中,Q*矢量散度随降水强度先增大后减小,与"霰融化成雨水造成雨水增长"微物理过程随降水强度的变化相似,热力切变平流参数随降水强度呈现"增大—减小—再增大"的变化特征,而其他6个动力因子均呈现单调增长趋势,与"雨水碰并云水造成雨水增长"微物理过程随降水强度的变化相类似;(3)总体看来,水汽螺旋度、热力螺旋度、散度垂直通量、热力散度垂直通量4个动力因子与降水强度及雨水收支相关的总的云微物理过程转化率对应更好,因此,对降水的指示意义也更好。
High-resolution numerical simulation data of typhoon Bilis in 2006 was used for diagnostic analysis of eight dynamical parameters in a torrential rain event associated with Bilis. The eight parameters are moist thermodynamic advection parameter(G), the vertical component of the generalized convective vorticity vector(CVZ*), moisture helicity(Hm), thermal helicity(Ht), divergence vertical flux(Γ), thermal divergence vertical flux(Γt), thermodynamic shear advection parameter(J), and generalized Q-vector divergence(Q*d). The results show that the following.(1) All eight dynamical parameters show strong signals in torrential rainfall regions. The correlation coefficients of the rain rate and Hm, Ht, Γ, Γt are all larger than 0.99, while the correlation coefficients of the total cloud hydrometeors and the four parameters above are all larger than 0.97. The correlation coefficients between J and rain rate, and J and total hydrometeors are both about 0.5, which is the lowest.(2) Q*d first increases and then decreases with an increase in rainfall intensity, sharing the same variation as the melting of graupel. J shows an increasing–decreasing–increasing pattern, while the other six parameters always increase with an increase in rainfall intensity, sharing the same variation pattern as the accretion of cloud water by rain water.(3) Overall, Hm, Ht, Γ and Γt correspond better with the rain rate and total cloud-microphysical processes associated with rain water. Thus, they are more indicative of strong precipitation.
High-resolution numerical simulation data of typhoon Bilis in 2006 was used for diagnostic analysis of eight dynamical parameters in a torrential rain event associated with Bilis. The eight parameters are moist thermodynamic advection parameter(G), the vertical component of the generalized convective vorticity vector(CVZ*), moisture helicity(Hm), thermal helicity(Ht), divergence vertical flux(Γ), thermal divergence vertical flux(Γt), thermodynamic shear advection parameter(J), and generalized Q-vector divergence(Q*d). The results show that the following.(1) All eight dynamical parameters show strong signals in torrential rainfall regions. The correlation coefficients of the rain rate and Hm, Ht, Γ, Γt are all larger than 0.99, while the correlation coefficients of the total cloud hydrometeors and the four parameters above are all larger than 0.97. The correlation coefficients between J and rain rate, and J and total hydrometeors are both about 0.5, which is the lowest.(2) Q*d first increases and then decreases with an increase in rainfall intensity, sharing the same variation as the melting of graupel. J shows an increasing–decreasing–increasing pattern, while the other six parameters always increase with an increase in rainfall intensity, sharing the same variation pattern as the accretion of cloud water by rain water.(3) Overall, Hm, Ht, Γ and Γt correspond better with the rain rate and total cloud-microphysical processes associated with rain water. Thus, they are more indicative of strong precipitation.
引文
Cao J,Gao S T.2007.Extended interpretations in Q vector analyses and applications in a torrential rain event[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,34(15):L15804,doi:10.1029/2007GL030781.
陈联寿,孟智勇.2001.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,25(3):420–432.Chen Lianshou,Meng Zhiyong.2001.An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),25(3):420–432.
Chen L S,Li Y,Cheng Z Q.2010.An overview of research and forecasting on rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,27(5):967–976.
楚艳丽,王振会,冉令坤,等.2013.台风莫拉克(2009)暴雨过程中位势切变形变波作用密度诊断分析和预报应用[J].物理学报,62(9):099201.Chu Yanli,Wang Zhenhui,Ran Lingkun,et al.,2010.Diagnosis and application of potential shear deformation wave-activity density in the torrential rain of typhoon Morokat(2009)[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),62(9):099201.
高守亭,刘璐,李娜.2013a.近几年中尺度动力学研究进展[J].大气科学,37(2):319–330.Gao Shouting,Liu Lu,Li Na.2013a.Major advances in research on mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in recent years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(2):319–330.
高守亭,冉令坤,李娜,等.2013b.集合动力因子暴雨预报方法研究[J].暴雨灾害,32(4):289–302.Gao Shouting,Ran Lingkun,Li Na,et al.2013b.The“Ensemble Dynamic Factors”approach to predict rainstorm[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(4):289–302.
Gao S T,Cao J.2007.Physical basis of generalized potential temperature and its application to cyclone tracks in nonuniformly saturated atmosphere[J].J.Geophys.Res.,112(D18):D18101,doi:10.1029/2007JD008701.
Gao S T,Wang X R,Zhou Y S.2004a.Generation of generalized moist potential vorticity in a frictionless and moist adiabatic flow[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,31(12):L12113,doi:10.1029/2003GL019152.
Gao S T,Ping F,Li X F,et al.2004b.A convective vorticity vector associated with tropical convection:A two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling study[J].J.Geophys.Res.,109(D14):D14106,doi:10.1029/2004JD004807.
Gao S T,Cui X P,Zhou Y S,et al.2005a.A modeling study of moist and dynamic vorticity vectors associated with two-dimensional tropical convection[J].J.Geophys.Res.,110(D17):D17104,doi:10.1029/2004JD005675.
Gao S T,Zhou Y S,Lei T,et al.2005b.Analyses of hot and humid weather in Beijing city in summer and its dynamical identification[J].Science in China Ser.D Earth Sciences,48(S2):128–137.
Gao S T,Li X F,Tao W K,et al.2007.Convective and moist vorticity vectors associated with tropical oceanic convection:A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation[J].J.Geophys.Res.,112(D1):D01105,doi:10.1029/2006JD007179.
刘汉华,寿绍文,周军.2007.非地转湿Q矢量的改进及其应用[J].南京气象学院学报,30(1):86–93.Liu Hanhua,Shou Shaowen,Zhou Jun.2007.Improvement and application of ageostrophic wet Q-vector[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),30(1):86–93.
刘海军,沈新勇,许娈,等.2013.1011号台风“凡亚比”登陆过程数值模拟及诊断分析[J].气候与环境研究,18(5):583–594.Liu Haijun,Shen Xinyong,Xu Luan,et al.2013.Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of landfall processes of typhoon Fanapi(1011)[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),18(5):583–594.
陆慧娟,高守亭.2003.螺旋度及螺旋度方程的讨论[J].气象学报,61(6):684–691.Lu Huijuan,Gao Shouting.2003.On the helicity and the helicity equation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),61(6):684 –691.
齐彦斌,冉令坤,洪延超.2010.强降水过程中热力切变平流参数的诊断分析[J].大气科学,34(6):1201–1213.Qi Yanbin,Ran Lingkun,Hong Yanchao.2010.Diagnosis of thermodynamic shear advection parameter in heavy rainfall events[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),34(6):1201–1213.
冉令坤,楚艳丽.2009.强降水过程中垂直螺旋度和散度通量及其拓展形式的诊断分析[J].物理学报,58(11):8094–8106.Ran Lingkun,Chu Yanli.2009.Diagnosis of vertical helicity,divergence flux and their extensions in heavy-rainfall events[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),58 (11):8094–8106.
冉令坤,周玉淑,杨文霞.2011.强对流降水过程动力因子分析和预报研究[J].物理学报,60(9):099201.Ran Lingkun,Zhou Yushu,Yang Wenxia.2011.Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),60(9):099201.
冉令坤,刘璐,李娜,等.2013.台风暴雨过程中位势散度波作用密度分析和预报应用研究[J].地球物理学报,56(10):3285–3301.Ran Lingkun,Liu Lu,Li Na,et al.2013.The analysis of the potential-divergence wave activity density and its application to typhoon precipitation[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),56(10):3285–3301.
Ran L K,Li N,Gao S T.2013.PV-based diagnostic quantities of heavy precipitation:Solenoidal vorticity and potential solenoidal vorticity[J].J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,118(11):5710–5723.
Ren C P,Cui X P.2014.The cloud-microphysical cause of torrential rainfal amplification associated with Bilis(0604)[J].Science China Earth Sciences,57(9):2100–2111.
王成鑫,高守亭,梁莉,等.2013.动力因子对地形影响下的四川暴雨落区的诊断分析[J].大气科学,37(5):1099–1110.Wang Chengxin,Gao Shouting,Liang Li,et al.2013.Diagnostic analysis of dynamical parameters for Sichuan rainstorm influenced by terrain[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(5):1099–1110.
王黎娟,任晨平,崔晓鹏,等.2013.“碧利斯”暴雨增幅高分辨率数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,36(2):147–157.Wang Lijuan,Ren Chenping,Cui Xiaopeng,et al.2013.High-resolution numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of rainfall amplification of Bilis(0604)[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(2):147–157.
Wu X D,Ran L K,Chu Y L.2011.Diagnosis of a moist thermodynamic advection parameter in heavy-rainfall events[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,28(4):957 –972.
许娈,何金海,高守亭,等.2013.集合动力因子对登陆台风“莫拉克”(0908)暴雨落区的诊断与预报研究[J].大气科学,37(1):23–35.Xu Luan,He Jinhai,Gao Shouting,et al.2013.Diagnostic and predictive studies of torrential rain location associated with landfalling typhoon Morakot(0908)using multi-dynamical parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):23-35.
杨帅,陈斌,高守亭.2013.水汽螺旋度和热力螺旋度在华北强“桑拿天”过程中的分析及应用[J].地球物理学报,56(7):2185–2194.Yang Shuai,Chen Bin,Gao Shouting.2013.Diagnostic analyses and applications of the moisture helicity and thermal helicity for two strong“Sauna”weather processes in northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),56(7):2185–2194.
姚秀萍,于玉斌.2000.非地转湿Q矢量及其在华北特大台风暴雨中的应用[J].气象学报,58(4):436–446.Yao Xiuping,Yu Yubin.2000.Non-geostrophic wet Q-vector analysis and its application to typhoon torrential rain[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),58(4):436 –446.
姚秀萍,于玉斌.2001.完全Q矢量的引入及其诊断分析[J].高原气象,20(2):208–213.Yao Xiuping,Yu Yubin.2001.Perfect Q-vector and its diagnoses[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),20(2):208–213.
岳彩军,寿绍文.2002.湿Q矢量散度场与ω场的比较[J].南京气象学院学报,25(3):420–424.Yue Caijun,Shou Shaowen.2002.Comparsion of wet Q vector divergence withωfield[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),25(3):420–424.
周冠博,崔晓鹏,高守亭.2012.台风“凤凰”登陆过程的高分辨率数值模拟及其降水的诊断分析[J].大气科学,36(1):23–34.Zhou Guanbo,Cui Xiaopeng,Gao Shouting.2012.The high-resolution numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of the landfall process of typhoon“Fungwong”[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(1):23–34.
陈联寿,孟智勇.2001.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,25(3):420–432.Chen Lianshou,Meng Zhiyong.2001.An overview on tropical cyclone research progress in China during the past ten years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),25(3):420–432.
Chen L S,Li Y,Cheng Z Q.2010.An overview of research and forecasting on rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,27(5):967–976.
楚艳丽,王振会,冉令坤,等.2013.台风莫拉克(2009)暴雨过程中位势切变形变波作用密度诊断分析和预报应用[J].物理学报,62(9):099201.Chu Yanli,Wang Zhenhui,Ran Lingkun,et al.,2010.Diagnosis and application of potential shear deformation wave-activity density in the torrential rain of typhoon Morokat(2009)[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),62(9):099201.
高守亭,刘璐,李娜.2013a.近几年中尺度动力学研究进展[J].大气科学,37(2):319–330.Gao Shouting,Liu Lu,Li Na.2013a.Major advances in research on mesoscale atmospheric dynamics in recent years[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(2):319–330.
高守亭,冉令坤,李娜,等.2013b.集合动力因子暴雨预报方法研究[J].暴雨灾害,32(4):289–302.Gao Shouting,Ran Lingkun,Li Na,et al.2013b.The“Ensemble Dynamic Factors”approach to predict rainstorm[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(4):289–302.
Gao S T,Cao J.2007.Physical basis of generalized potential temperature and its application to cyclone tracks in nonuniformly saturated atmosphere[J].J.Geophys.Res.,112(D18):D18101,doi:10.1029/2007JD008701.
Gao S T,Wang X R,Zhou Y S.2004a.Generation of generalized moist potential vorticity in a frictionless and moist adiabatic flow[J].Geophys.Res.Lett.,31(12):L12113,doi:10.1029/2003GL019152.
Gao S T,Ping F,Li X F,et al.2004b.A convective vorticity vector associated with tropical convection:A two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling study[J].J.Geophys.Res.,109(D14):D14106,doi:10.1029/2004JD004807.
Gao S T,Cui X P,Zhou Y S,et al.2005a.A modeling study of moist and dynamic vorticity vectors associated with two-dimensional tropical convection[J].J.Geophys.Res.,110(D17):D17104,doi:10.1029/2004JD005675.
Gao S T,Zhou Y S,Lei T,et al.2005b.Analyses of hot and humid weather in Beijing city in summer and its dynamical identification[J].Science in China Ser.D Earth Sciences,48(S2):128–137.
Gao S T,Li X F,Tao W K,et al.2007.Convective and moist vorticity vectors associated with tropical oceanic convection:A three-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation[J].J.Geophys.Res.,112(D1):D01105,doi:10.1029/2006JD007179.
刘汉华,寿绍文,周军.2007.非地转湿Q矢量的改进及其应用[J].南京气象学院学报,30(1):86–93.Liu Hanhua,Shou Shaowen,Zhou Jun.2007.Improvement and application of ageostrophic wet Q-vector[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),30(1):86–93.
刘海军,沈新勇,许娈,等.2013.1011号台风“凡亚比”登陆过程数值模拟及诊断分析[J].气候与环境研究,18(5):583–594.Liu Haijun,Shen Xinyong,Xu Luan,et al.2013.Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of landfall processes of typhoon Fanapi(1011)[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),18(5):583–594.
陆慧娟,高守亭.2003.螺旋度及螺旋度方程的讨论[J].气象学报,61(6):684–691.Lu Huijuan,Gao Shouting.2003.On the helicity and the helicity equation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),61(6):684 –691.
齐彦斌,冉令坤,洪延超.2010.强降水过程中热力切变平流参数的诊断分析[J].大气科学,34(6):1201–1213.Qi Yanbin,Ran Lingkun,Hong Yanchao.2010.Diagnosis of thermodynamic shear advection parameter in heavy rainfall events[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),34(6):1201–1213.
冉令坤,楚艳丽.2009.强降水过程中垂直螺旋度和散度通量及其拓展形式的诊断分析[J].物理学报,58(11):8094–8106.Ran Lingkun,Chu Yanli.2009.Diagnosis of vertical helicity,divergence flux and their extensions in heavy-rainfall events[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),58 (11):8094–8106.
冉令坤,周玉淑,杨文霞.2011.强对流降水过程动力因子分析和预报研究[J].物理学报,60(9):099201.Ran Lingkun,Zhou Yushu,Yang Wenxia.2011.Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection[J].Acta Physica Sinica(in Chinese),60(9):099201.
冉令坤,刘璐,李娜,等.2013.台风暴雨过程中位势散度波作用密度分析和预报应用研究[J].地球物理学报,56(10):3285–3301.Ran Lingkun,Liu Lu,Li Na,et al.2013.The analysis of the potential-divergence wave activity density and its application to typhoon precipitation[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),56(10):3285–3301.
Ran L K,Li N,Gao S T.2013.PV-based diagnostic quantities of heavy precipitation:Solenoidal vorticity and potential solenoidal vorticity[J].J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,118(11):5710–5723.
Ren C P,Cui X P.2014.The cloud-microphysical cause of torrential rainfal amplification associated with Bilis(0604)[J].Science China Earth Sciences,57(9):2100–2111.
王成鑫,高守亭,梁莉,等.2013.动力因子对地形影响下的四川暴雨落区的诊断分析[J].大气科学,37(5):1099–1110.Wang Chengxin,Gao Shouting,Liang Li,et al.2013.Diagnostic analysis of dynamical parameters for Sichuan rainstorm influenced by terrain[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(5):1099–1110.
王黎娟,任晨平,崔晓鹏,等.2013.“碧利斯”暴雨增幅高分辨率数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,36(2):147–157.Wang Lijuan,Ren Chenping,Cui Xiaopeng,et al.2013.High-resolution numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of rainfall amplification of Bilis(0604)[J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(2):147–157.
Wu X D,Ran L K,Chu Y L.2011.Diagnosis of a moist thermodynamic advection parameter in heavy-rainfall events[J].Adv.Atmos.Sci.,28(4):957 –972.
许娈,何金海,高守亭,等.2013.集合动力因子对登陆台风“莫拉克”(0908)暴雨落区的诊断与预报研究[J].大气科学,37(1):23–35.Xu Luan,He Jinhai,Gao Shouting,et al.2013.Diagnostic and predictive studies of torrential rain location associated with landfalling typhoon Morakot(0908)using multi-dynamical parameters[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):23-35.
杨帅,陈斌,高守亭.2013.水汽螺旋度和热力螺旋度在华北强“桑拿天”过程中的分析及应用[J].地球物理学报,56(7):2185–2194.Yang Shuai,Chen Bin,Gao Shouting.2013.Diagnostic analyses and applications of the moisture helicity and thermal helicity for two strong“Sauna”weather processes in northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),56(7):2185–2194.
姚秀萍,于玉斌.2000.非地转湿Q矢量及其在华北特大台风暴雨中的应用[J].气象学报,58(4):436–446.Yao Xiuping,Yu Yubin.2000.Non-geostrophic wet Q-vector analysis and its application to typhoon torrential rain[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),58(4):436 –446.
姚秀萍,于玉斌.2001.完全Q矢量的引入及其诊断分析[J].高原气象,20(2):208–213.Yao Xiuping,Yu Yubin.2001.Perfect Q-vector and its diagnoses[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),20(2):208–213.
岳彩军,寿绍文.2002.湿Q矢量散度场与ω场的比较[J].南京气象学院学报,25(3):420–424.Yue Caijun,Shou Shaowen.2002.Comparsion of wet Q vector divergence withωfield[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology(in Chinese),25(3):420–424.
周冠博,崔晓鹏,高守亭.2012.台风“凤凰”登陆过程的高分辨率数值模拟及其降水的诊断分析[J].大气科学,36(1):23–34.Zhou Guanbo,Cui Xiaopeng,Gao Shouting.2012.The high-resolution numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of the landfall process of typhoon“Fungwong”[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(1):23–34.